2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread

[wncsnow]

37 here but no frost yet. I expect 5-7 of rain here, maybe more along the escarpment 

[Met1985]

24 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

37 here but no frost yet. I expect 5-7 of rain here, maybe more along the escarpment 

Yeah the totals keep waffling but I expect area wide of at least 3 inches of rainfall from this.

[Sw NC weather]

Bottomed out at 35 this morning and received the first frost of the season.

[Met1985]

The 12z gfs takes the remnants of Ian and stalls the system right over us. I'm seeing a lot of 4 plus inches showing up in the ideal areas along the southern escarpment.  Asheville coming in at almost 5 inches so you know it's going to be one wild weekend if this track stays like this.

[franklin NCwx]

1 hour ago, Sw NC weather said:

Bottomed out at 35 this morning and received the first frost of the season.

That's what we had as well

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

That's what we had as well

Good to see you posting.  Hope all is well. 

[Met1985]

The 12z euro is basically half the rainfall of the gfs so we will see how this comes out. 

[wncsnow]

GSP is pretty bullish on rain totals and overall impacts   

 

As of 215 pm Wednesday: Gusty easterly winds will steadily increase
early in the short term, as the gradient tightens between 1030+ mb
surface high over the Northeast, and T.C. Ian, which is expected to
be making a brief excursion over the coastal waters off Jacksonville
at the start of the period. Gusts in the 20-35 mph range appear
likely from Fri morning into Fri afternoon, with the initial surge
of tropical moisture/outer bands expected to overspread our CWA
during the afternoon. Guidance remains in good agreement in turning
Ian toward the N/NW Thu night/Friday, with a second landfall (most
likely as a strong tropical storm) expected in the vicinity of
Hilton Head Fri afternoon...with continued weakening to a depression
expected as the center tracks into the western Carolinas Fri
night/Saturday. Moderate to heavy rain is expected to remain
widespread over our area from that through at least Saturday
morning, with attendant ramping up of the excessive rainfall/
localized flash flooding threat. This threat is expected to be most
pronounced across the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment, where strong
easterly flow will augment rainfall rates, and in a somewhat narrow
axis along/just east of the cyclone track (generally just east of
the I-26 corridor) where strong/deep convergence is expected to
focus as the system takes on increasingly extra-tropical
characteristics.

In terms of the wind...gusts are expected to increase late Fri
afternoon into Fri evening, as 60+ kt E/NE LLJ shifts across the
area...with increasing chances for tropical rain bands to mix higher
momentum air to the surface, despite expected surface-based stable
layer/cold air damming (as an aside, this stability is expected to
preclude a threat for tornadoes, despite at least a portion of the
CWA being in a favorable quadrant of the cyclone). With that in
mind, it does appear that occasional tropical storm-force gusts are
a good bet, especially across the SC Piedmont later Fri afternoon
into Fri evening. Pending continued coordination with neighboring
WFOs, a Tropical Storm Watch MAY be issued for part of our area to
coincide with the 5pm Advisory from NHC.

A general consensus of guidance suggests that the remnant depression
will more or less stall somewhere in the vicinity of the foothills
on Saturday, as the quickly weakening cyclone begins to lose its
battle against the sprawling ridge of high pressure covering much of
the East. As this occurs, the suggestion is that much of the eastern
half or so of the area will become dry slotted Sat afternoon through
Sat night, while heavy rainfall will remain possible within
deformation zone region...mainly across portions of the central
Appalachians, with continued enhancement of rainfall rates possible
in these areas due to persistent...but weakening E/SE flow. Rainfall
totals of 4 to 6 inches (the bulk of which should fall through Sat
night) are expected across the much of the eastern 2/3 of the CWA,
with more like 2-4 inches across the west. The highest amounts are
still expected across the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment, where 6 to
8 inches are forecast.

[Tyler Penland]

The 12z euro is basically half the rainfall of the gfs so we will see how this comes out. 

18z GFS did it again.

The NAM is on a different planet with landfall in Myrtle Beach and barely any rain in WNC. Really strange look.

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[Met1985]

Ended up with an exact low of 32 degrees and current temp is 47 already.

[Tyler Penland]

Made it to 36 here at the house.

Camped up on Hawksbill in the Gorge last night and not sure what the temp was but it was breezy and cold this morning. Nice refreshing camping weather. I'm betting we see peak leaf color in 10 days on Grandfather at the current rate.

Here's sunset last night. Already quite a bit of color in the Gorge in the exposed areas. They always change early though.



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[Met1985]

There are big differences between the gfs and Euro with regards to rainfall here in WNC. Seems like the euro has not really been on board with really big rainfall totals.  A solid 3 to 6 inches in my opinion still will cover the forecasting area but ill warn people small adjustments with the track of this could mean seeing 1 inch to 4 inches of rainfall. 

[Met1985]

When I left the house this morning it was 33 degrees with more frost. A absolute beautiful morning. 

[Met1985]

6z gfs pulls back even more on totals from the remnants of Ian. Asheville barely gets an inch this run. A very noticeable trend the past 24 hours. 

[Met1985]

The NAM came in at around 2 inches for region wide rainfall.  Hardly flooding rains at that prediction but still a long ways to go.

[Met1985]

Also looking out the next 5 to 7 days we are going to have a trough in place for a bit so expect the growing season to end very soon with a freeze.

[Met1985]

The gfs and NAM continue to correct to the east with Ian. Unless things change again the threat for flooding is extremely minimal. 

[Met1985]

The euro cones further south which ups the totals back up a bit. Really until this thing hits the east coast again the models may not really get a great handle on this...

[Met1985]

One thing is for sure we are going to definitely have some great Fall weather coming in for sure.

[Met1985]

My final low was 31 degrees this morning with a current temp of 48 degrees. 

[Met1985]

This morning we were ar 40 degrees. Looks like some beneficial rainfall on it's way starting tonight. 

[BooneWX]

Ian appears that he may jog into the coast, south of guidance. That could have a big impact downstream - especially for those that were previously on the cuff. 

[Buckethead]

44 with overcast skies and a 15mph wind. Seems like a good night to use the fireplace!

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[Met1985]

35 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

44 with overcast skies and a 15mph wind. Seems like a good night to use the fireplace!

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Beautiful weather!

[wncsnow]

Rain getting heavy here. Pretty nasty out and a bad time to have covid

[Buckethead]

Rain getting heavy here. Pretty nasty out and a bad time to have covid

Yeah it is. 43 with rain and strong wind up here made for pretty raw dog walk.

Feel better buddy!

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[strongwxnc]

Sitting at 2.55” as it starts to wind down. Still getting a good flow out of the NE though.


.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[strongwxnc]

Looking good for cool to cold weather starting end of week!

.

[Buckethead]

Only reached 43 up here in Wolf today. This should be a good week for leaf color progression up here.

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