Buckethead Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Good morning! These inversion events that we have we just kill it in temps. Having elevation and living in a bowl helps a lot with these events. Current temp is 21 degrees. A lot colder than forecasted. Still a strong signal for upslope snow. I'd say anywhere from 2-4 inches to 3-6 in the highest elevations. Also this squall line that will be blowing through could bring some pretty severe weather with it as well. Possibly high winds and some hail and torrential rainfall. I reached 41 around 1030 last night before cooling back down to 32 by 7am. Anytime there isn't strong caa or snowcover in the valley on sunny winter days, you can bank on an inversion happening. I'm sure the ski resort loves that. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Lots of freezing fog in Buncombe today from Ridgecrest to East Asheville 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 12z euro looks pretty good with 4-10" totals on the border. One thing to keep in mind is those totals are at 10:1 when we should have 15-20:1 ratios according to other guidance.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, Buckethead said: 12z euro looks pretty good with 4-10" totals on the border. One thing to keep in mind is those totals are at 10:1 when we should have 15-20:1 ratios according to other guidance. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Was just fixing to say with the stronger northern vort this is what I'd expect. The gfs doesn't see that for some reason. A great look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Booked a cabin at the top of ski mountain road in Gatlinburg at 3,000 feet. That is pretty high for that area, so fingers crossed we get a nice event. Hoping for 1-3. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, BhamParker said: Booked a cabin at the top of ski mountain road in Gatlinburg at 3,000 feet. That is pretty high for that area, so fingers crossed we get a nice event. Hoping for 1-3. . You should do well there according to the model runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, Buckethead said: 12z euro looks pretty good with 4-10" totals on the border. One thing to keep in mind is those totals are at 10:1 when we should have 15-20:1 ratios according to other guidance. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk I’d cash out at a 4”+ event at my place all day long 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I am thinking of coming up Friday for it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: I am thinking of coming up Friday for it. You should. Will probably be the only time you'll see snow all winter. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 14 minutes ago, WxKnurd said: I’d cash out at a 4”+ event at my place all day long Oh yeah we look solid for this event! A great NW flow setting up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ja643y Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I’ve got a place I can go to right on the McDowell/Mitchell line just under 3,300 feet. The maps show a pretty steep drop off with almost nothing. Is there shadowing that happens or does all the moisture get rung out pretty quick NE to SW as it crosses the boarder. I’ve only been there for one storm (last year - 10”+) but never for a Flow event. Any thoughts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 7 hours ago, Met1985 said: Good morning! These inversion events that we have we just kill it in temps. Having elevation and living in a bowl helps a lot with these events. Current temp is 21 degrees. A lot colder than forecasted. Still a strong signal for upslope snow. I'd say anywhere from 2-4 inches to 3-6 in the highest elevations. Also this squall line that will be blowing through could bring some pretty severe weather with it as well. Possibly high winds and some hail and torrential rainfall. It always gets colder when there is no snow in the forcast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Will be in Boone this weekend. Appears Boone might be a bit too far east for anything substantial but hopeful for an inch or two. Those that are along the border should be in great shape though!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said: Will be in Boone this weekend. Appears Boone might be a bit too far east for anything substantial but hopeful for an inch or two. Those that are along the border should be in great shape though! . I might load the family up and drive toward banner elk towards Roan.. Maybe.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, strongwxnc said: I might load the family up and drive toward banner elk towards Roan.. Maybe.. Yeah I'm kicking myself for getting a cabin in Boone this weekend and not somewhere like Beech but nothing I can do now. Any way will probably drive over to Banner Elk and maybe up to Beech Friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 52 minutes ago, Ja643y said: I’ve got a place I can go to right on the McDowell/Mitchell line just under 3,300 feet. The maps show a pretty steep drop off with almost nothing. Is there shadowing that happens or does all the moisture get rung out pretty quick NE to SW as it crosses the boarder. I’ve only been there for one storm (last year - 10”+) but never for a Flow event. Any thoughts? That area usually only gets an inch or 2 at best unless the streamers setup in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 While not prolific by any means the 18z NAM is a good sign for this weekend. Plenty of backside moisture up to 700mb thanks to the large UL trough pivoting through. Should be a good 24hr window for NW flow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 While not prolific by any means the 18z NAM is a good sign for this weekend. Plenty of backside moisture up to 700mb thanks to the large UL trough pivoting through. Should be a good 24hr window for NW flow. This year, 2-4" IS prolific lol.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Buckethead said: This year, 2-4" IS prolific lol. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Very true lol. NAM was stacking it on and had several hours to go. Maybe we squeeze out something noteworthy this weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 About dang time the NAM woke up. Really fits in with the Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I think areas like Beech, Roan, Wolf, and places in the Smokies can go over 6 inches with this setup. Even downtown Asheville should get half an inch to an inch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 hours ago, Ja643y said: I’ve got a place I can go to right on the McDowell/Mitchell line just under 3,300 feet. The maps show a pretty steep drop off with almost nothing. Is there shadowing that happens or does all the moisture get rung out pretty quick NE to SW as it crosses the boarder. I’ve only been there for one storm (last year - 10”+) but never for a Flow event. Any thoughts? Unfortunately, that is the case with these NWFS events here in Mitchell county. Areas north and west of Bakersville (Roan, Unaka, Buladean, and Poplar) tend to get the most during these events. However, Little Switzerland gets the best during the synoptic setups and icy CAD events along the BRP. Sometimes the NWFS events can break containment of the higher elevation TN border and give Spruce Pine some nice totals. Numerous times in my 55 years, I've seen the Buladean valley socked in with 6-8" of flow snow while Spruce Pine was sunny and dry all day! Good luck with this one...maybe we get to see our first measurable snow of the season! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 4 hours ago, Met1985 said: You should. Will probably be the only time you'll see snow all winter. That is probably correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Torch is lit. Get yours while you can. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Good trends on the NAM. Upping totals for everyone and some 6+ inch totals on the border.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 20 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said: Good trends on the NAM. Upping totals for everyone and some 6+ inch totals on the border. . Yeah and it's still snowing at hour 84 on the NAM. This isn't the NAM'S best hours but you have the cmc, euro, NAM, and gfs all look very good. It'll be interesting to see the NAM 3K Once this storm gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Yeah and it's still snowing at hour 84 on the NAM. This isn't the NAM'S best hours but you have the cmc, euro, NAM, and gfs all look very good. It'll be interesting to see the NAM 3K Once this storm gets closer.Definitely good to see. If I remember correctly from my time living in the high country I believe the NAM typically handles flow events the best correct? . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 10 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said: Definitely good to see. If I remember correctly from my time living in the high country I believe the NAM typically handles flow events the best correct? . The NAM does much better than the globals do yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 The 0z rgem has lake effect streamers off Lake Michigan stretching down to the border (next panel).Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 10 hours ago, LakeNormanStormin said: Torch is lit. Get yours while you can. Agreed...the cold Christmas had me hoping for a little bit more active winter...ugh! Maybe it's going to be a late winter...we'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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