Buckethead Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Unless we warm up overnight my high today was 32...back down to 30 now. That's only 7 degrees below the forecast.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 I have a view of Cataloochee when headed out to the main highway after I get to the bottom of my mountain. Looks like some moisture is falling over that way, maybe @Maggie Ace can confirm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 The system on the 18z is further south and is much better organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Roughly rain and a squall line blows through then wrap around moisture hammers the border counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Verbatim a big time snow for the border counties on this run. Even 3 inches at the airport. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Verbatim a big time snow for the border counties on this run. Even 3 inches at the airport. 12"+ from just west of me and north along the border. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Buckethead said: 12"+ from just west of me and north along the border. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Yeah big time totals especially talking about this year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 The 18z gefs so far supports a much colder solution than past solutions. Also the snow mean wet up a good bit over a larger portion of the mountains. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 The 18z gefs so far supports a much colder solution than past solutions. Also the snow mean wet up a good bit over a larger portion of the mountains.Signs are looking good for measurable snow! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 If you don't like the looks of the weeklies or trust them then look at the ensembles currently. All three of the major long range models have a positive PNA and a negative epo pattern setting up around the 20th of this month. To me that's some pretty good signs but to other the damn sky is falling everyday.... I posted this in the main thread to try to inject something other than doom and gloom but to me this is great news especially it being with the ensembles. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Down to 30.9/26.9HRRR verifying 2-3 degrees too warm right now at the surface. 0z run had me at 33/34 at this point. Mostly clear skies definitely helping maximize radiational cooling right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Just looking at the wave coming in from the west it's further north and it looks less impressive. To me this run is going to be warmer and more north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 There is a lot of dynamics that have changed in just 6 hours on the gfs. When they update the damn thing they set the model way back... Absolutely shit consistency.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Im going to go through the run just for posterity sake but im trashing this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 This is a weird solution. The wave kind of just stays open across the whole country but then there is a potent piece of energy from the north that drops down behind the wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Instead of a bowling ball it's like a legitimate trough digging down with the piece of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 The low from the west coast wave travels from TN to Ohio so everything in front of the low is rainfall for everyone. Then the other piece of energy rotates down to crank up the flow snow. This looks really good for the border counties but don't worry it'll change tomorrow morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 34.7 and rain. Still zr over towards Blowing Rock. How you doing @Buckethead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Cold, miserable rain continues 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 The storm that turned me into snow hound. I was 9 at the time. Ive (and most folks) been chasing this set up every since I was in Rutherford County at the time (still live here). 93 and 96 was close. But nothing has even compared (IMO) to the storm in 88. Not sure where to access SC Maps fthough. I know GSP netted a foot in this storm. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 34.7 and rain. Still zr over towards Blowing Rock. How you doing [mention=2505]Buckethead[/mention]? 34 and rain as well.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 34 and rain as well.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk[/quote]I'm at work over in Blowing Rock and it's been 30 and rain since this morning. Coming down hard enough it's not really freezing to much but it is absolutely miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 The 12z gfs looks great for the border counties. This is all going to be a backside storm now. The low runs up into Ohio and just kind of stalls for a bit allowing lots of energy to move through on the trough right into the mountains. This is not going to be a synoptic storm unless something drastic changes which I don't see happening. This looks like the best setup for upslope snow we've seen this season. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 12z euro looks great for upslope snow. This will be a great trajectory from the NW with plenty of cold air flooding in behind the low coming in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Also looking at the 12z eps it looks damn good right after the 20th. The eps has been showing this for several runs so hopefully we can see this change come to fruition. Cmc ensembles are looking great as well and the slow as hell gefs is latching onto the idea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Luckily, a PV disruption is looking very imminent, so I’d assume long range models will start to trend colder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Also looking at the 12z eps it looks damn good right after the 20th. The eps has been showing this for several runs so hopefully we can see this change come to fruition. Cmc ensembles are looking great as well and the slow as hell gefs is latching onto the idea. There is a signal. I'll give you that. I also like where the MJO is headed. Let's get this inside 7 days and then we can breathe a little easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 20 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: There is a signal. I'll give you that. I also like where the MJO is headed. Let's get this inside 7 days and then we can breathe a little easier. I mean I understand people's frustration but it's January the 8th and people are acting like it's the end of the damn world. It's freaking weather. If you cannot keep your shit together then don't post.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 This run of the 18z is going to be awful. It cuts the first storm way early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Really weird solution with the gfs. This is going to cut our totals way back for NW flow snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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