Met1985 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: I wonder how the HRRR has been verifying out west. It keeps Boone below zero for over 24 hours with a low of -13 Saturday morning. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk Yeah that's crazy but not out of the realm with this extremely dense push of arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 The HRRR was too warm for Amarillo. HRRR suggested 7F and the actual temperature was -2F.Well. That's concerning. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Completely unrelated to our area but the short range guidance for Buffalo and the Southtowns is borderline apocalyptic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 22 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Completely unrelated to our area but the short range guidance for Buffalo and the Southtowns is borderline apocalyptic. Friday Night Good lord! Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -10. Very windy, with a southwest wind 39 to 44 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. High near 18. Windy, with a southwest wind 32 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Folks at Foothills weather don't have us gettung below 10. I think they are wrong on this one. We should easily see single digits even in Marion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Folks at Foothills weather don't have us gettung below 10. I think they are wrong on this one. We should easily see single digits even in Marion. Yeah the modeling has been really behind on this arctic front and with the moisture behind this front also. I think we see some very impressive high lows and lows this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah the modeling has been really behind on this arctic front and with the moisture behind this front also. I think we see some very impressive high lows and lows this weekend. NWS has me for a low of zero tonight, 2 for the high tomorrow and -3 for Saturday morning. Don’t go back above freezing until sometime Tuesday per the point and click. There’s a strong possibility those of us above 3500’ could be single digits or below for 24 hours straight if the HRRR pans out or even “worse” and it’s on the high side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Hard not to get excited for my area. Should be brief blizzard-like conditions tonight! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 The latest hrrr was a nice hit for the mountains. The euro is back to showing paltry numbers for everyone. This will be fascinating to see evolve out in real time as in actual air temperatures and precipitation. The euro has been warmer than every other model and drier than every other model.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: Latest HRRR suggests 3 inches here at the house. Yeah it looks really good for some of the favored areas. You'll probably do better than me because it is coming in more westerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 19 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah it looks really good for some of the favored areas. You'll probably do better than me because it is coming in more westerly. Yea I think you and I probably should be thrilled to squeak out an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said: Hard not to get excited for my area. Should be brief blizzard-like conditions tonight! Good luck!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, WxKnurd said: Yea I think you and I probably should be thrilled to squeak out an inch. Yep that's exactly what im thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 The 18z NAM is pretty meh but the NAM 4k still looks really good for the most favorable areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 The 18z NAM gets Asheville down to negative 2 Saturday morning. Just think of what the mountain areas will be like say around 3k feet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 'Brutal' is a word that comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 18z HRRR has a minimum of - 14 in Boone.-19 on Beech.Max wind gust of 71MPH in Boone. They've actually shut Beech down for the next 2 days due to the conditions. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 18z HRRR has a minimum of - 14 in Boone.-19 on Beech.Max wind gust of 71MPH in Boone. They've actually shut Beech down for the next 2 days due to the conditions. Sent from my Pixel 5 using TapatalkGeez that's **does math** a wind chill value of -55° in Boone! I thought the -42 in my forecast was impressive. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 HRRR is almost definitely overdone but -20 to -30 wind chills are possible in Boone. Above 5K there could be -50 or worse. It will be interesting to see how low it goes compared to the guidance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 HRRR is almost definitely overdone but -20 to -30 wind chills are possible in Boone. Above 5K there could be -50 or worse. It will be interesting to see how low it goes compared to the guidance. The almost definitely part is what concerns me.Probably overdone on temps but those kind of wind gusts aren't exactly unheard of. I believe the record is in the mid-70mph range. Even gusts of 60-65 would be problematic. Any power outages could be hard to reach with downed trees and a flash freeze. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 I had a visitor this afternoon while finishing up some preparations. I am so jealous of you guys with those Elk. I wish it was feasible to introduce them back up here but far too many people. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 @strongwxncthat Buffalo forecast is unreal! I grew up in CT and my best friend, his father has had season tickets to the Bills game, as he grew up just outside Orchard Park. That is life threatening the conditions that are about to transpire up that way. Incredible forecast with 1-3 ft and winds to 70. WOW! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 I’ve got very light flurry action! 45 currently . 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Surprisingly im already down to 34 under clear skies. Also reading from the TN forum there seems to be a bit of a surplus in moisture with this front and the orientation is a bit better with the front currently. There are reports of 20 degree temp drops in 1 hour also. This is some serious stuff fellas. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Surprisingly im already down to 34 under clear skies. Also reading from the TN forum there seems to be a bit of a surplus in moisture with this front and the orientation is a bit better with the front currently. There are reports of 20 degree temp drops in 1 hour also. This is some serious stuff fellas. I’m down in Waynesville but my station is showing 40. Man if I hit -9 or 10 as modeled with this front, your place will be -15 I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Radar looks way way more impressive than what the short range models had depicted. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 33.1 at 4400' in Wolf. Perhaps we won't waste any qpf in liquid form!Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 37.8 and creeping downward here south of Boone. Weirdly calm out there.They hadn't touched the roads when I came home about 730. I think some secondaries had been done but none of the main roads yet. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 34 minutes ago, WxKnurd said: I’m down in Waynesville but my station is showing 40. Man if I hit -9 or 10 as modeled with this front, your place will be -15 I bet. Yeah that will be crazy. Not that I want those temps. That's too dang cold. Not too mention the windchills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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