Met1985 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Well to me the gfs took a big step towards the euro. There is a sharp gratient on the snow line right along the border counties. Gfs still very very cold. Might have warmed up a degree or two but still very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Thankfully I don't have to go anywhere Friday. Thursday NightRain before 3am, then sleet between 3am and 4am, then snow after 4am. Low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -6. Windy, with a south wind 14 to 19 mph becoming west 27 to 32 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.FridayA chance of snow before 9am, then a slight chance of snow showers between 9am and noon. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 6. Windy, with a west northwest wind 30 to 33 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 The HRRR is on drugs. Has Boone to -12 at the end of its run with a -39 wind chill. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 The HRRR is on drugs. Has Boone to -12 at the end of its run with a -39 wind chill. Sent from my Pixel 5 using TapatalkGeez, it has me in the same ballpark...-13 with wc below -40. It has -50 wc values in the black and craggy mountains!Ray's is pretty optimistic about snow totals in his discussion. 1-3" with double or more on the border. At this point I'll take covering the leaves as a win.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 If there ever was a cold chasing moisture scenario that should work out to a degree, it would be this one. Otherwise I’m convinced it’s not possible in the Lee. Short range guidance is showing a nice little thump of snow pivoting through tomorrow morning. Not gonna hold my breath but with the temps crashing so dramatically above our heads, you could probably get snow at the surface even if you were in the low 40s. @wncsnow let’s reel it in! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 The 12z hrrr 2m temp drops are staggering. It has me at 32° at 6z and -13° by 12z. 45° in 6 hours! KVAL goes from 39° to -2° in the same time frame.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Buckethead said: The 12z hrrr 2m temp drops are staggering. It has me at 32° at 6z and -13° by 12z. 45° in 6 hours! KVAL goes from 39° to -2° in the same time frame. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Good Lord that's crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 56 minutes ago, BooneWX said: If there ever was a cold chasing moisture scenario that should work out to a degree, it would be this one. Otherwise I’m convinced it’s not possible in the Lee. Short range guidance is showing a nice little thump of snow pivoting through tomorrow morning. Not gonna hold my breath but with the temps crashing so dramatically above our heads, you could probably get snow at the surface even if you were in the low 40s. @wncsnow let’s reel it in! I would be shocked to see more than a stray flurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Worth noting for the northern mountains at least the 3km NAM was a good improvement on snow. Basically no rain along the front just a snow squall. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 A big improvement on the euro across the border counties. After several runs of drying up the moisture this run brings back some. Maybe we are finally seeing a middle ground with the models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 19 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: Since the snow potential albeit light is anafrontal, wondering if ratios could be much higher since we are seeing dramatic temperature drops in 3 to 4 minutes? Saw a map earlier in the TN Valley sub forum showing forecast ratios in the range of 20-26” of snow per inch of liquid for all mountain counties. Potential for high ratio stuff is there if we get the moisture once the front blasts through. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 My uncle lives in middleville MI and this is his forecast for this week.. Will be a dry awesome snow! . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 NAM is paltry on the snow again... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 HRRR has Beech Mountain at -20F during the day Friday. Be ready 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Currently sitting at 32.9/21.3Interesting night ahead with the ZR. Hopefully the roads are cleared up by the time folks get up. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 33 and light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 She's a cominSent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 I’ve experienced a 45+ degree drop in less than 12 hours (I think it was like 8) in Ohio but that much in an hour is crazy. The fact we are about 30 hours away from experiencing a blue norther this far SE is historic. 0z HRRR shows me at -9 at 11:30 am Friday morning, I can’t wrap my head around if that were to verify. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Euro upped totally, gfs looks decent. I think we all see some flakes but the real news maker is the cold and wind that is going to blow through here tomorrow morning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Anybody with a glaze? My DP rose quickly last night and stalled temps at 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Anybody with a glaze? My DP rose quickly last night and stalled temps at 35. Nope, everything is wet and we're in the cloud deck here in Wolf, but it's 33.4 thankfully. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 The NAM is a bit better on some snow, the hrrr is meh, and the NAM 3K brings the goods to the high elevation spots which is a positive change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 This arctic blast absolutely means business. This one is impressive for sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathang80 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, Met1985 said: This arctic blast absolutely means business. This one is impressive for sure. You are correct. I saw where James Spann reported that Denver went from like 45 to 5 degrees in two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, Jonathang80 said: You are correct. I saw where James Spann reported that Denver went from like 45 to 5 degrees in two hours. Yeah you can look back in the TN forum from yesterday were spots in Wyoming and Montana dropped 30 degrees in 3 minutes... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 We've not seen an airmass like this for nearly a decade and we are only in December... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Anybody with a glaze? My DP rose quickly last night and stalled temps at 35. We had one for a while, didn't get back above freezing til a little before sunrise. Bypass area of Boone still had a decent glaze when I came through this morning at 9 as did a couple sections between Boone and BR. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 32 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: Not sure if it has been mentioned, but the National Model Blend is too warm and too slow with the Arctic boundary. Yes I've seen were the models have been severely behind on modeling the arctic front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 Yes I've seen were the models have been severely behind on modeling the arctic front.I wonder how the HRRR has been verifying out west. It keeps Boone below zero for over 24 hours with a low of -13 Saturday morning. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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