Met1985 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Ill tell you one thing the closer we get to the cold front the colder the models are getting. Should be several people below zero Friday night into Saturday morning. Bone chilling cold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Someone correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t this Thursday system really similar to what we seen Christmas 2020. If memory serves right that event trended better in the last 48 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Latest 12z GFS says Beech mtn goes below zero by 8am Friday and stays below zero for 26 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said: Latest 12z GFS says Beech mtn goes below zero by 8am Friday and stays below zero for 26 hours. I absolutely believe a lot of people especially over 3500 feet will not get out of the single digits or above zero. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said: Someone correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t this Thursday system really similar to what we seen Christmas 2020. If memory serves right that event trended better in the last 48 hours. Yes very very similar except this cold blast is way more potent and has some staying power. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, Met1985 said: I absolutely believe a lot of people especially over 3500 feet will not get out of the single digits or above zero. I’m doing my preparations today and tomorrow since I’m leaving Saturday morning to ho down to Hickory til Monday. Only one outside hose bib to worry about but all faucets are gonna be dripping water when I leave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Latest 12z GFS says Beech mtn goes below zero by 8am Friday and stays below zero for 26 hours.I usually like to walk around taking photos during snowy weather. I think may stay instead this round if reality is anywhere close to this.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, WxKnurd said: I’m doing my preparations today and tomorrow since I’m leaving Saturday morning to ho down to Hickory til Monday. Only one outside hose bib to worry about but all faucets are gonna be dripping water when I leave. Easy on the ho down to Hickory this is a kid friendly site lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 29 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: Completed the winterizing at the Cabin yesterday. I have guests arriving there tomorrow and it is booked throughout the rest of the Holidays. I'm keeping a keen eye on Sunday night/Monday as a trailing shortwave energizes a NW Gulf low that heads our way. I will be at Warrensville at a Cabin from 23-25 leaving Monday morn by check out time. It will be interesting to see what I find accumulation wise. Everyone is saying 1-3 on the Apps. Gonna be a tough drive from Hazlehurst Ga Friday before we arrive that late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I absolutely believe a lot of people especially over 3500 feet will not get out of the single digits or above zero.I’m thinking around 10 is the lowest I’ll get in the foothills. At least in my location. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: I’m thinking around 10 is the lowest I’ll get in the foothills. At least in my location. . Yeah yall will flirt with single digits. At this moment im thinking one of us will make it to at least negative 5 to negative 10 here in the mountains especially if you have some snow on the ground. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Euro is abysmal on the snow chances. The euro keeps the low wrapped up much further north than the gfs. And with the verification scores this could be the right solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Sitting at 37/21 here. Happy it is cold at least. Smell of fireplaces in the air. Itching for some flakes though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Some occasional flurries over here in the Lake Junaluska area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Flurries here as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 To me it is clear the euro is drying up ever so slightly over the past 3 to 4 runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 New minimum for Boone on the 12z GFS is -7.I'm curious to see if this verifies or not.The Euro is about 10 degrees warmer. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Latest guidance suggests -2F for Maggie Christmas Eve morning with windchill values around -15 to possibly-20. It's going to be a brutally cold Christmas Holiday in the Mountains with a lot of out of town guests!Those new bike rides will be awesome!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I thought the 18z looked good for snow in the mountains. Asheville is up to 2 inches on the model run. The temp drop is just going to be insane especially with the wind. That gfs run has Asheville at a min of 1 and has me at negative 5.... Yall seen today after tomorrow.... Yeah something like that lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I thought the 18z looked good for snow in the mountains. Asheville is up to 2 inches on the model run. The temp drop is just going to be insane especially with the wind. That gfs run has Asheville at a min of 1 and has me at negative 5.... Yall seen today after tomorrow.... Yeah something like that lol.Looking at the 3km NAM a quick change to snow with the actual frontal passage appears pretty likely. I'm concerned it'll be a bit moisture starved but ratios will go from 0-100 real quick. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said: Looking at the 3km NAM a quick change to snow with the actual frontal passage appears pretty likely. I'm concerned it'll be a bit moisture starved but ratios will go from 0-100 real quick. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk Yeah the changeover will not be gradually. It's going to turnaround on a dime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Also just a bit of fun but even with the lack of snow possibly this is a historic event and it will be a memorable event. To see temperatures this cold with windchills that we are going to see and the dramatic temperature drop is something we rarely see here. This is a rare event especially in December. Possible record breaking pressure in Montana. Make no mistake about the shear size of this event across the country. We will have wind chill warnings and high wind advisories and high wind warnings also. If you by chance you see a changeover to snow then you'll likely see some brief blizzard conditions locally... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 NAM looks just like the euro in my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 NAM looks just like the euro in my opinion. Yep pretty dry. Looks like a decent amount of moisture at 850mb behind the front. Should keep the NWFS going for a little while. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Euro is very dry and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 We lose. This La Nina sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 The NAM looked much better this morning especially for the southern mountains with the expanse of snow and snowfall numbers. The NAM 3K followed suit with upping totals and being a but more expansive on the snowfall. Even giving the airport at least a trace this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Ice, ice baby! Haywood-Transylvania- Including the city of Waynesville 339 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. A light glaze is expected at elevations above 3500 feet. * WHERE...Elevations above 3500 feet over the Balsam Mountains in Haywood and Transylvania Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles- Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA- Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford- Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier- Western Greenbrier- Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Boone, Wilkesboro, Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle 338 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet and/or ice accumulations from freezing rain of around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest North Carolina, central, south central, southwest and west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 And this is exactly what I was talking about last night. This watch is from Andrews south. Today or tomorrow the rest of the mountains will be issued something similar. ...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as low as 15 below zero in lower elevations, and as low as 25 below zero in higher elevations. * WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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