Tyler Penland Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Worth noting the NWFS on the backside looked better on this run of the GFS. I think border areas over 5k easily get a foot. Gonna be wringing a lot of moisture out. I'm also interested to see if this trends towards a temps-outrun-the-precip deal with a change to snow before the main frontal band actually moves out over the mountains. That cold push is SHARP. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Euro is close on the first wave 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 All kinds of energy on the euro today. Anything can still happen at the last minute with one of these waves. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Worth noting the NWFS on the backside looked better on this run of the GFS. I think border areas over 5k easily get a foot. Gonna be wringing a lot of moisture out. I'm also interested to see if this trends towards a temps-outrun-the-precip deal with a change to snow before the main frontal band actually moves out over the mountains. That cold push is SHARP. Sent from my Pixel 5 using TapatalkI noticed that...I'm still pretty optimistic about the upslope component!Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Buckethead said: I noticed that...I'm still pretty optimistic about the upslope component! Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk You are sitting pretty for sure. Hoping us Haywood posters can squeeze out 2-3” down here from this setup, I’d feel better if I was up on Waterrock Knob, Hemphill, Max Patch or even Crabtree Bald 3 miles to my NW. Elevation is always king (except for inversions or a wedge lol)! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen...super hopeful for an active winter. Any updates about the approaching system? Low tracking south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Well might as well have some fun with the short range models. The 21z SREF plums are giving our regional anywhere from a trace to 1 inch of snow from this southern slider. For what it's worth. Also the 3k NAM is trying to drum up some flakes for the southern mountains. Also todays euro run finally got on board with the idea of some very light snow for the southern mountains today for the first time in days. Imagine that it just pops up with snow within 24 hours.... Crazy. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Also current temp is a cool 30 degrees. The front that's going to blow through here means business. We will see some huge temp drops in a very short period. If you have outdoor animals bring them in or get some very thick bedding out of the wind for them. We will likely see temps below zero. Make sure your car is winterized and your pipes are insulated because this cold means business. Take care of things early this week before the weather goes to crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Take Asheville at hour 90 they are at 43, hour 96 at 23 degrees, at hour 102 at 17 degrees, hour 108 at 10 degrees. Hour 114 at 6 degrees. This is from today's euro run. You know a lot of us are 10 to 15 degrees colder than the Asheville airport.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 The gfs is even more extreme. Lets take a look. Again we will use the Asheville airport. At hour 93 they are at 42 degrees. Hour 96 down to 14! Hour 99 at 8 degrees. That really shows the rapid drop but the euro is actually colder than the gfs for us. Again just a bit of fun with the models. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The gfs is even more extreme. Lets take a look. Again we will use the Asheville airport. At hour 93 they are at 42 degrees. Hour 96 down to 14! Hour 99 at 8 degrees. That really shows the rapid drop but the euro is actually colder than the gfs for us. Again just a bit of fun with the models. Saw on Weather Channel that Denver will go from 52 at 300PM to -4 at 1200AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Saw on Weather Channel that Denver will go from 52 at 300PM to -4 at 1200AM. Yep I believe it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Not saying it’s gonna help us a lot or that a 500 mile shift back to last week is gonna happen, but the east corrections with the low track have kept up all day thus far with 0Z runs from the “big boy” models to come. At the very least an Apps Runner track should help upslope for border counties. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 @Tyler Penland (and anyone else under those returns) are you seeing anything reaching the ground?Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 [mention=3757]Tyler[/mention] Penland (and anyone else under those returns) are you seeing anything reaching the ground?Sent from my SM-S908U using TapatalkNegative. I peeked outside earlier to check when I seen them. Was hoping for flurries. Probably getting eaten up by the dry air. Currently 29/22. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 No snow in West Jefferson per our ring doorbell cam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Coldest run of the GFS for Boone yet. From 33 to 1 from 6-12z Friday and down to -1 by afternoon. Bottoms out at -3.Ive actually never seen below zero temps so that would be a first for me. BrrrrrrrrrrSent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Coldest run of the GFS for Boone yet. From 33 to 1 from 6-12z Friday and down to -1 by afternoon. Bottoms out at -3.Ive actually never seen below zero temps so that would be a first for me. BrrrrrrrrrrSent from my Pixel 5 using TapatalkWith wind chills -20 to -30. Geez. Definitely time to put the flip flops away now. Also, check out the 0z cmc for the 27th-28th. That time frame is looking more and more interesting. The gfs looked like it wanted to pop a low on the coast but never did. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 With wind chills -20 to -30. Geez. Definitely time to put the flip flops away now. Also, check out the 0z cmc for the 27th-28th. That time frame is looking more and more interesting. The gfs looked like it wanted to pop a low on the coast but never did. [Sent from my SM-S908U using TapatalkThe GFS has been trending in the right way for the past couple days. I think Met pointed out the CMC is actually beating the gfs/euro in the long range.Here's hoping. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 06z gfs was a bit better this morning with regards of snowfall for Friday. Even Asheville gets 2 inches out of this run. Probably 6 plus along the border. Cold front blasts through and temps drop like a rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 As usual precip is further north than any model shows. Reaching into southern Tennessee. I think they’ll be some snow flurries/showers in the southern mnts this evening. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 18 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said: As usual precip is further north than any model shows. Reaching into southern Tennessee. I think they’ll be some snow flurries/showers in the southern mnts this evening. It’s really a shame we’re whiffing on this one. If that precip shield came north a bit more, we’d all be enjoying a nice 2-4 inch event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I'm ready for a weak to moderate el Nino. La Ninas are awful 9/10. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I'm ready for a weak to moderate west based el Nino. La Ninas are awful 9/10. fyp 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Nothing is showing up on radar for mby, but I've had sleet for about 20 minutes now 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Few flurries in Waynesville..ended about as fast as they started 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 You can see the moisture working in from the south over the mountains. Could squeeze out some flakes this after. Most all the models did not have this coming through. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 12z gfs still looks to give most some flakes. The old rain changing to snow routine as temps comes crashing down.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 You could take a gander at the whole southeast radar and convince yourself easily that we’re about to get a big surprise. I know it’ll get a more west to east orientation soon but that moisture over Alabama and Mississippi would have me salivating if I didn’t know better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Light snow in toxaway 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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