wncsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I don't think its the final solution either but it would sure be depressing. 1-2 inches of rain then cold and dry with no snow before it starts moderating again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I’ll get toasted and roasted in the other thread if I say this, so I’ll say it here: the gfs is on an island but I couldn’t tell you the last time I saw the Euro have a correct solution at day 7 either. Last January’s storm, the gfs was completely on an island. I'm not sure how many times the Euro has to bury waves out west incorrectly before people realize it's really not that great at it, especially day 5-7.I swear 75% of the other thread just wants something negative to latch onto. I've peeked in there a couple times, that kind of roller coaster emotion would not be good for my health lolSent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: I don't think its the final solution either but it would sure be depressing. 1-2 inches of rain then cold and dry with no snow before it starts moderating again Oh yeah that would sting a lot especially with the blocking that is going on currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I’ll get toasted and roasted in the other thread if I say this, so I’ll say it here: the gfs is on an island but I couldn’t tell you the last time I saw the Euro have a correct solution at day 7 either. Last January’s storm, the gfs was completely on an island. No roasting here. We are literally 7 days out in an anomalous pattern change and blocking. People talk about the gfs being erratic.... Um the Euro went from showing snow in the south to a damn cutter so tell me which model is erratic.... I don't really believe both currently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Oh yeah that would sting a lot especially with the blocking that is going on currently. It has rained over 5 inches imby in the last month.. More will be insult to injury... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: No roasting here. We are literally 7 days out in an anomalous pattern change and blocking. People talk about the gfs being erratic.... Um the Euro went from showing snow in the south to a damn cutter so tell me which model is erratic.... I don't really believe both currently. Another angle of that to consider: the GFS and a vast majority of its ensembles have honed in on a similar setup for days and continue to do so. It’s the only one without the major swings you described. Consistency matters. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Gfs time baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 We are out to hour 21 looks like the whole globe is flipped upside-down... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I don't think its the final solution either but it would sure be depressing. 1-2 inches of rain then cold and dry with no snow before it starts moderating againWould be the worst. But plausible for sure..Hell, anything is at this point . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Unless this thing just goes to wash there is good separation on this run again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Idk though it looks like it's diving down way west but have the tpv over the NE may help drag it across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I dont like the look of this run already. I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Well at hour 144 it's digging and coming east.... This could cut or blow up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 It's a mess of a system. We get a little bit of everything out of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Mountains still get a warning criteria snow though once the cold air floods in around the low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The GEFS just gets better and better. 6" mean up here along the border.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, Buckethead said: The GEFS just gets better and better. 6" mean up here along the border. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Absolutely beautiful map right there. Hell not a bad mean across the state at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 hours ago, wncsnow said: I don't think its the final solution either but it would sure be depressing. 1-2 inches of rain then cold and dry with no snow before it starts moderating again That was the trademark of the middle 1970's Nina's. Cutter after cutter, rain ending as flurries the cold/dry. Rinse and repeat. Hated those Winter's. You guys on the eastern slopes got lucky a couple times with cad and a coastal that was just far enough west in the '74-75 Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Absolutely beautiful map right there. Hell not a bad mean across the state at all. Let's just hope the Ensembles turn out to be the winner. Tonight's 0z runs should show whether or not the trend is for a cutter. Really need that TPV to assert itself under that block to stave that off. The Blizzard that hammered the Dakota's moved toward the block before stalling. You'd think it would have began weakening under the duress and start sliding SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Even if it trends towards 2 inches of rain it just feels so dang good to be tracking something - anything. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 47 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Even if it trends towards 2 inches of rain it just feels so dang good to be tracking something - anything. Just wish some others did play by play. I know enough to do some but there are some weenies trying to read these runs and it confuses everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Through 126 looks like the West/Amped trend has stopped for now. Vort very slightly east and weaker. TPV lobe in SE Canada is stronger and may help with confluence, but it's alignment and placement is different from previous runs. We'll see where this goes. Still very different from Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Annnnnnnd we’re back to an east coast solution. Gonna be curious to see if we get any level of agreement from the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Bit of a convoluted mess with the first wave/LP stealing the show. Still a decent run for most of WNC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 0z GEFS Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Still a long way off, but it's nice to see digital snow in the hourly weather graph! Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: 27 for my low and now the wind is picking up and clouds are rolling back in from the NW. The 3km NAM suggests NWFS kicks in late this afternoon. Same exact low and conditions here. Im ready! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 This is going to look just like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I think the fat lady is about to sing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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