Met1985 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Models are modeling. All ill say is the the ensembles are still looking good. The cold air will be around we just need things to match up. Just be patient. We are fixing to enter into much better climo snow wise. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Models are modeling. All ill say is the the ensembles are still looking good. The cold air will be around we just need things to match up. Just be patient. We are fixing to enter into much better climo snow wise. I agree. I don’t see any reason to think anything has been canceled or delayed. With a pattern change this stout and the teleconnections on the table, it’s wise to take the average of the models instead of falling for the back and forth of the Ops. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Already down to 34 degrees for the evening. We warmed to 46 today but dropped back quickly this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Looks like the ensembles are leading the way again today. The op models are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: I have to chuckle at the mood swings on this board in the various Regions. I'm thankful for our group here in the Mountains that always maintain a balance and have knowledge throughout our various microclimates and bring sound reasoning to our discussions! I second this! Our group is always level headed. No breakdowns or mood swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 RNK really downplaying any ice potential across NW NC and south/central VA tomorrow night. NAM is way overdone as usual but I have a hard time believing its going to bust that badly further north in areas where it shows predominately a snow/sleet event over a large part of VA. I guess we'll find out soon enough. Regardless might be a slick commute in on Thursday morning along the NW escarpment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Also that's a crazy deep Christmas trough on the 18z GFS. Nearly sub-zero across the mountains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, Maggie Ace said: Hunter put out a good update this evening on YouTube. Worth checking out if you have a chance. Yep saw it this evening. Great video. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: Hunter put out a good update this evening on YouTube. Worth checking out if you have a chance. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, mercurydime said: Link? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Thanks!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 35 with very light flurries right now here in Wolf. I thought surely I was mistaken, but nope...I've been watching for 10 minutes now.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, Buckethead said: 35 with very light flurries right now here in Wolf. I thought surely I was mistaken, but nope...I've been watching for 10 minutes now. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Nice! 36 here no flurries though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Shared this in the other thread but especially for us, this isn’t a bad look at the 7 day range. The high pressure location is very workable and should supply enough dry air down the spine. Now can we get that disturbance to turn into a slider or full on Miller A? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 It gona get freaking cold fellas! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: It gona get freaking cold fellas! Hopefully we can score a minor event to set the mood for Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 It gona get freaking cold fellas!Looks like flip flop season is just about over. I put them away once we hit 0. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Yeah there would definitely be legit below zero temps especially if we have some snow on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 The gfs ens agrees with the op suite. Also don't be disappointed because we don't see some chances for snowfall yet. The big caveats are still in play with this anomalous pattern. Again patience and just keeping an eye on things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Buckethead said: Looks like flip flop season is just about over. I put them away once we hit 0. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk I love winter and cold as much as the next person but man… this is not the year for extremes to impact the energy sector. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Watching the temperature swings during these wedge systems is fascinating. We sit right on the edge and have had the temp bouncing like a ball since mid afternoon. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Also seeing stations in Blowing Rock up towards Deep Gap falling towards freezing pretty quick. Several stations sitting at 32.7 right now. Also of 2045 First stations around Aho just dropped below freezing. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Overnight euro is wild. We get heavy synoptic snow to heavy upslope snow with temps dropping near zero and windy asf.... Some places are showing over a foot of snow and this has ENS support.... 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1.58” at 39 degrees! . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 hours ago, Met1985 said: Overnight euro is wild. We get heavy synoptic snow to heavy upslope snow with temps dropping near zero and windy asf.... Some places are showing over a foot of snow and this has ENS support.... Just to extrapolate out for fun. I would assume that would be 6+ for all the mountains and some 3 feet totals on the border with some insane snow ratios. Fun times are definitely ahead fellas! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Don’t look now but still… that Monday/Tuesday timeframe is intriguing again. 12z GFS with a weak high over Pennsylvania and a disturbance trying to fester to our south. It even has snow showers breaking out over SW NC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Don’t look now but still… that Monday/Tuesday timeframe is intriguing again. 12z GFS with a weak high over Pennsylvania and a disturbance trying to fester to our south. It even has snow showers breaking out over SW NC. Yeah saw that. Little things like that will pop up out of nowhere at the last minute with this pattern change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Big snow incoming on GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 This run is much better for us. Instead of getting the whole tpv coming down on us we get a piece that breaks off and rotates down and at hour 186 and looks to have some energy with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Big snow incoming on GFS Beat me too it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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