Buckethead Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Here you go! Looking forward to this pattern change. At the least NWF areas should get hammered next Friday and Saturday..When I read this the interest level for next weekend went wayyyy up in my head. That flow looks to be pretty impressive! Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 18z GFS says no to next weekend. Just not cold enough. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Yeah once again I think the gfs is on an island all by itself. I could be wrong but im sticking to the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 It’s still a little early on but I think the first chance for my neck of the woods is 12/18-12/22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 32 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said: It’s still a little early on but I think the first chance for my neck of the woods is 12/18-12/22 Been thinking the same thing today. Looks like at the least the first legitimate window to keep an eye on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Wherher you call it trends or what the gfs spits out a different solution... This solution is a step towards the Euro but the gfs is absolutely freaking useless to me... The run to run wild swings from that damn model are crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 GEFS says 5 days for our pattern change and much colder pattern for our area. The ensembles have been rock steady today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 More changes with the first initial push of cold air from the gfs... Color me skeptical but I don't think we have seen our last adjustments from the model. It doesn't look bad but there is room for deeper cold and a better push. I just about guarantee the ensembles will support a better push of cold air through the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 That 18/19th timeframe just continues to look interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 There is so much energy flying around between next weekend and Christmas! Right now it's showing up as a lot of weak sheared out southern slider type storms but if the models are underestimating the block pushing the northern stream energy south and slowing it down, just like they were doing for next week's system, a big phased storm is definitely on the table in that timeframe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 The GEFS is the best run yet! That is a thing of beauty. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 29 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The GEFS is the best run yet! That is a thing of beauty. It really was. Only worry with it is cold and dry as it is getting more and more into that true arctic outbreak type cold. But as we all know that really isn't a worry worth having at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 This caught my eye. Almost covering the entire lower 48.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 18z GFS is dreaming of a dark Christmas apparently lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Starting to get excited now. Gonna get the snow gear ready this week, hopefully I need it sooner rather than later. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Eye candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Could be fun times ahead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 12km NAM is razor thin margins on ice in the northern foothills Wednesday night. Definitely not something to sleep on. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Last night's op Euro shows how we can fail. Not enough of a ridge in the west leads to over amplication and rain then the real cold and dry hits right before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Last night's op Euro shows how we can fail. Not enough of a ridge in the west leads to over amplication and rain then the real cold and dry hits right before Christmas. Lots of ways to fail and win. The models are struggling mightily with the blocking in my opinion because it is so deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Last night's op Euro shows how we can fail. Not enough of a ridge in the west leads to over amplication and rain then the real cold and dry hits right before Christmas. The NAO is negative. The AO is anonymously negative at negative 4 SD. The PNA is finally forecast to because neutral to positive and we look to gain a true negative EPO. That's a lot to freaking figure out on the models. But yeah we may ens up at 40 degrees and wet or dry. Can always happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Also im going to say the op model runs can look great or horrible. Currently ride the ensembles until we get something in with 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 I would also point out that by only going out 240 the Euro is ending right where the ensembles have the snowiest period beginning. Similar to how that 18z GFS yesterday was bone dry through the same time period but then brought back to back events on the 22nd and 24th. I don't care what the pattern is we aren't going to bat 1.000 down here so just keep the cold and the energy flying around and we're bound to get at least something out of this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Freezing Rain totals on 12Z Nam nothing to joke about from 81 down toward the Escarpment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 57 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: From some im reading that winter will be on the other side of the conus.. The op models have warmed but I still think they are correcting but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 We can definitely score with the upcoming pattern. I just want to play devils advocate with some of the things that can go wrong. We all know how easy it is to mess up winter storms for most of us excluding some higher elevations. It's overall a good look but I would like it even more we can get a little more ridging in the west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 30 minutes ago, wncsnow said: We can definitely score with the upcoming pattern. I just want to play devils advocate with some of the things that can go wrong. We all know how easy it is to mess up winter storms for most of us excluding some higher elevations. It's overall a good look but I would like it even more we can get a little more ridging in the west. Oh one change and we can be screwed. Everything dumps out west which 2 years ago we saw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Yeah I'm not completely ruling this out. It would definitely be a localized event but the 12km develops a weak surface low which is just enough to drag lower DPs in from VA. Could spell trouble from Blowing Rock up through Mt Airy during the morning commute Thursday. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: I had a morning low of 32 with frost and Valley fog just above the surface. Yeah we actually sank to 27 this morning with heavy frost. Went into town and no frost. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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