wncsnow Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Long range seems to be up in the air at this point. Some models showing a typical La Nina pattern, others show more blocking and cold air around. We'll see what's right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 17 hours ago, wncsnow said: Long range seems to be up in the air at this point. Some models showing a typical La Nina pattern, others show more blocking and cold air around. We'll see what's right. That -PNA is going to be the fly in the ointment. We should’ve expected it wouldn’t stay positive. I just hope it flips back before long. The NAO going - is certainly a nice step but a -NAO and a -PNA spells nothing more than transient cool days I’m afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Had a low of 25 this morning. We are beginning our relaxation heading into the first of December. Looks like a very rainy weekend currently but also the pattern headed into mid December Looks great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 Happy Thanksgiving everyone! 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 Everything still looks great heading into the second week of December. The telecommunications look to be lining up great especially with the AO and the NAO finally. Looks like this year we could see some legitimate blocking taking place that will help us. We have a few days of near normal then back below normal after Tuesday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 There are sublet differences but the GFS and the EPS are both showing some impressive blocking setting up especially with the retrograding Scandinavian block which usually leads to great blocking for us. The negative NAO is west based also so that is a huge help. The date im looking at for significant changes are December the 5th which is less than 10 days away. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 35.6 with a light rn/sn mix here in Wolf right now.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 The pattern continues to look great after the 5th especially around mid month. There are going to be some major changes in the pattern from top to bottom. The biggest thing is the depth of blocking in the NAO and AO regions which we have not seen in a long time. The ensembles continues to look good. The op models will change from run to run especially during a huge pattern shift as we will see. So if you are hedging bets on the controls then you'll go insane. All in all im very excited for the opportunity for winter weather coming for the second half of December. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 Also guys venture out into the forum in general. There is a lot of great into in the TN VALLEY thread, the Mid Atlantic thread and in the NEW England thread as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just crossed the 1” mark on the night. Gonna be a good rain for areas still in the drought. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Picked up 1.5 “ !. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Yeah this rainfall was no joke. I nice steady soaking rain here in Haywood which we needed it because we had a 500 acre fire burning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Also all is go with the December pattern change. Lots of noise out there but just be patient. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Ended up with 2.37” north of Franklin. I agree with the pattern change mid month. Lots of blocking around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 I haven’t been this excited by a look on the ensembles in years. We know how it goes…nothing is written until the ink dries but nonetheless, at least things seem to be getting interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Colder air is spilling in. We went from mostly cloudy and 48 to dense fog/mist and 41 in the past 15 minutes in Wolf.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 42 minutes ago, Buckethead said: Colder air is spilling in. We went from mostly cloudy and 48 to dense fog/mist and 41 in the past 15 minutes in Wolf. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk This pattern is about to be unreal for you. The lakes are still warm and those fronts are going to bring a polar express with it. Can’t wait to see how much NWF you can rack up by New Years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Yeah temps are dropping. Down to 45 currently and windy. Going to be cold tonight. Probably some teens around. We will warm up the first of next week but it's all part of the plan. This blocking is very deep and extreme guys. We've not seen this in some 10 plus years... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Yeah temps are dropping. Diwn to 45 currently and windy. Going to be cold tonight. Probably some teens around. We will warm up the first of next week but it's all part of the plan. This blocking is very deep and extreme guys. We've not seen this in some 10 plus years...Assuming that blocking comes to pass. I'm hoping so but I'm not one to count unhatched chickens.Operational GFS has been hinting at the 11-13 time frame for a while now, though, so certainly something to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 This pattern is about to be unreal for you. The lakes are still warm and those fronts are going to bring a polar express with it. Can’t wait to see how much NWF you can rack up by New Years.Neither can I, my friend!Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Temp down to 28 degrees, Christmas tree is decorated, putting up outside lights, hot chocolate is hot, and Polar Express is on for the kids.... All is well. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 A lot of chatter on the pattern coming up. One thing I can say is that we are going to be wet. Lots of showers and rainfall which isn't really bad. Currently it looks like the pattern might be changing mid month. To me the later the better because our climo just gets more and more favorable as the month goes on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 11 hours ago, Met1985 said: A lot of chatter on the pattern coming up. One thing I can say is that we are going to be wet. Lots of showers and rainfall which isn't really bad. Currently it looks like the pattern might be changing mid month. To me the later the better because our climo just gets more and more favorable as the month goes on. Yep I’ve tried to back off my panic from yesterday. I’m just a sucker for a cold December but it does look like we get the PNA close to neutral and borderline positive by around the 13th. We all know that deep down, NAO or not, that’s truly the one piece that matters the most. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Also one of you fellas needs to set up a livestream or live reports for one of the better flow setups . I lived vicariously through the Buffalo snow king two weeks ago and his reports were incredible. If you missed it, look him up on Twitter or crawl that thread in the upstate NY forum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Yep I’ve tried to back off my panic from yesterday. I’m just a sucker for a cold December but it does look like we get the PNA close to neutral and borderline positive by around the 13th. We all know that deep down, NAO or not, that’s truly the one piece that matters the most. Yeah the target date was always around December 15th... We know the models have a massively hard time with large pattern changes and this is no different in my opinion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Also one of you fellas needs to set up a livestream or live reports for one of the better flow setups . I lived vicariously through the Buffalo snow king two weeks ago and his reports were incredible. If you missed it, look him up on Twitter or crawl that thread in the upstate NY forum. I was shopping for a new webcam this morning for just that reason. In the meantime, this is at the countey club, which is less than a mile from me and right along a 4500' ridgeline. https://mitchellweather.com/Webcams/Wolf+Laurel+ClubThis is at the base of Wolf Ridge. And here's a video I took of a NWF event at that location.https://www.instagram.com/p/BgUYBJHHRMD/?igshid=MDM4ZDc5MmU=Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 The 18z shows the potential of this upcoming pattern. I wouldn't get worked up about what you see but just know that this is a possibility especially after the 12th... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 47 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The 18z shows the potential of this upcoming pattern. I wouldn't get worked up about what you see but just know that this is a possibility especially after the 12th... I agree I wouldn’t take any run verbatim, but with the kind of pattern we’re changing to, a storm could show up 3-4 days out and be game on. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 The 18z shows the potential of this upcoming pattern. I wouldn't get worked up about what you see but just know that this is a possibility especially after the 12th...Yup, climatology is on our side more and more every day. I'm just patiently waiting!Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 The 18z shows the potential of this upcoming pattern. I wouldn't get worked up about what you see but just know that this is a possibility especially after the 12th...And the 0z is like "wat?"500mb looks way different than the last several runs. Still a ways to go but I'm keeping my fingers crossed for some high elevation snow hiking on the 13th.Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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