cold air aloft Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 I believe the mountains are in pretty good shape actually. Having lived here as long as I have, I can't count how many times we've seen models struggle in the 24-36 hour time frame before an event only to swing back to where they were previously. The dynamics are still in place IMO. Heavy precipitation should force just enough cooling for most of us at 2,000 feet elevation and up. We all know any event can go sideways, but I still think many here will be please on Sunday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham- Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson- Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains- Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Black Mountain, Candler, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort 234 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 4 to 10 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...The North Carolina mountains. * WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, cold air aloft said: I believe the mountains are in pretty good shape actually. Having lived here as long as I have, I can't count how many times we've seen models struggle in the 24-36 hour time frame before an event only to swing back to where they were previously. The dynamics are still in place IMO. Heavy precipitation should force just enough cooling for most of us at 2,000 feet elevation and up. We all know any event can go sideways, but I still think many here will be please on Sunday. My thoughts exactly, For those of us that have lived here a while we've seen this before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Yall can bail anytime yall want to but im still optimistic about everything especially for us mountain folk. The foothills is a different story and may I remind you the NAM has had issues recently with snowfall and with accumulations. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Also a reminder that the HRRR nailed that last synoptic event in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Also a reminder that the HRRR nailed that last synoptic event in Jan. Unfortunately it's a ip/zr fest with only a bit of snow at the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 47 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yall can bail anytime yall want to but im still optimistic about everything especially for us mountain folk. The foothills is a different story and may I remind you the NAM has had issues recently with snowfall and with accumulations. Good post . Spot on. The Nam last I knew still has a warm bias. Don't think it was ever corrected. Also, I think your location and 2500+ ele should do fine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 hour ago, snowbird1230 said: They issue a warning followed with this crap They may be doing what KMRX does and display the NBM output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Tacoma said: Yep WSW are up for Asheville with 4 to 10 but when you go to the snow map it shows Buncombe County .9 inches of snow where as before this it was 2.7 inches of snow. Shows Waynesville 3.2 and Brevard 2.3, that doesn't make sense. That's the blend of models output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 18z GFS with a bit better look than what we have seen all day. Lots of variables at play here with this one and a lot to consider. It's going to be nowcast soon. Soundings for the whole event are razor thin. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 18z gfs snowfall map. A much better improvement over the 12z.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 We may actually see a correction with tonight's models and tomorrow morning for a more favorable look. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 19 minutes ago, Met1985 said: We may actually see a correction with tonight's models and tomorrow morning for a more favorable look. After all of the windshield wiping we’ve seen this year, I wouldn’t expect less! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, BooneWX said: After all of the windshield wiping we’ve seen this year, I wouldn’t expect less! Yeah might as well give everyone a heart attack while we are at it.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: Hunter had a very good YouTube update a few minutes ago. I encourage everyone to check it out. I appreciate the no hype and steady hand this young man offers from a forecaster prospective. I've know an awfully lot of professional forecasters over the years and I continue to be very impressed with Hunter Ward. We are fortunate to have him here in WNC and our forum! Hunter is a great forecaster and even better person. Having spent some time with Hunter and lots of Communication he is a true professional. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Hunters video. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Thanks to you both for the kind words! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 The poor ol 00z NAM snowfall Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 For whatever it may be worth, the HRRR looks a lot better at least as far as precip coverage goes with the deform band. As long as we can secure heavy rates under that upper level cold pool then we should at least get to see some heavy wet snow fall for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 13 hours ago, wncsnow said: Could be an ugly day of model watching Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 00z gfs snowfall map. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: That is another increase for our area. Perhaps we are seeing a legitimate reversal with 24 hours to go. Might be. I think we still see corrections into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 None of the models improved from their previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 06z nam likes ice.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 415 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 NCZ033-049-050-052-111715- /O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0001.230212T0000Z-230213T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0002.230212T0000Z-230213T0500Z/ Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood- Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, and Cove Creek 415 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 11 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Avery, Yancey, Mitchell and Haywood Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to midnight EST Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Gusty winds could combine with the wintry precipitation to knock down some trees and power lines. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is still some uncertainty regarding the expected temperatures. A small change could lead to more freezing rain or sleet and less snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet, and ice are expected or occurring. Strong winds are also possible. This will make travel very hazardous or impossible. Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel, keep a flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 HRRR has heavy snow breaking in Haywood tonight around 7pm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, Hvward said: HRRR has heavy snow breaking in Haywood tonight around 7pm. I haven't posted anything this winter. It has seemed pretty definite that everything will turn to trash the closer the model runs come to the event. NWS has downtown staying all rain, not even a sleet pellet and only "maybe" an inch where I am in Candler. So, hoping for a miracle. Seems like we are due. Anyway, I would like to concur with the compliments from above. I know so many people that say, I listen to this guy, lol. I say, Hunter?? Yeah, that's him. You do a great job, right or wrong and you are right more often than not. But, I don't envy anybody forecasting around here !!! So, keep doing doing what you are doing. People appreciate it. ... And this is not to minimize any other local forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 This thing could over perform just as easily as not in Asheville also. If that upper low jogs just a little bit east and south is all we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 I really wish I could get up to beech for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 30 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: I haven't posted anything this winter. It has seemed pretty definite that everything will turn to trash the closer the model runs come to the event. NWS has downtown staying all rain, not even a sleet pellet and only "maybe" an inch where I am in Candler. So, hoping for a miracle. Seems like we are due. Anyway, I would like to concur with the compliments from above. I know so many people that say, I listen to this guy, lol. I say, Hunter?? Yeah, that's him. You do a great job, right or wrong and you are right more often than not. But, I don't envy anybody forecasting around here !!! So, keep doing doing what you are doing. People appreciate it. ... And this is not to minimize any other local forecaster. Thank you for the kind words ncjoaquin! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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