wncsnow Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: I’ve heard March 2009 be thrown around quite a bit and I actually think that’s a pretty good analog and possibly and evolution we can see. That storm had severe downsloping in the Lee but picked up totals rapidly west and east. Just look at that gradient from just west of Morganton to Hickory! anyways. The gut tells me there will be two winners: obviously the higher elevations but still someone in the eastern foothills/western piedmont is going to get under a death band of sorts and score with temps in the mid 30s. Good luck to all forecasters trying to pinpoint that spot though! Hard pass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Some beautiful mammatus clouds this morning in Burnsville.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Just now, wncsnow said: Hard pass I know man. Trust me, I’m not wishing that result on anyone in the Lee. You and I both know that it’s a delicate balance though. ULLs can work in the foothills but you can’t be too far away from the best lift to overcome the sinking air and more times than not, these setups struggle to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I know man. Trust me, I’m not wishing that result on anyone in the Lee. You and I both know that it’s a delicate balance though. ULLs can work in the foothills but you can’t be too far away from the best lift to overcome the sinking air and more times than not, these setups struggle to work out. My expectations are low here. An inch or 2 and I'm happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Still some more snow after this for the mountains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 13 minutes ago, wncsnow said: My expectations are low here. An inch or 2 and I'm happy. Same.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Same.. The way this winter has been a dusting is a win 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Seems the clear point of divergence between the GFS/NAM and the Euro/CMC is the track of the upper level vort. The GFS camp takes a more gradual ENE climb off the gulf coast staying well SE of us putting us in the sweet spot. Whereas the Euro and Canadian have become pretty consistent in a more drastic NE turn bringing the core of the ULL almost into the southern mountain counties, benefiting eastern Tennessee and Kentucky. I can't spot the reason for this difference, the only thing that sticks out to me is there is still a significant timing difference between the two camps with the ULL's approach to the gulf, with the GFS camp several hours faster. I know the Euro and CMC have known tendencies to hold energy back too long. Thing is I don't know if this is causing the difference in eventual track or if it's insignificant. On the brightside, even a solution in between the two camps is probably a nice event for most of the area. Hopefully as we get more into the wheelhouse of short range models accuracy windows things will become more clear. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Bunch of rain or slop before a turnover on the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Nam with a different solution but still ends up being 4-8” for all the Mnts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 12z Nam. Another solution... And im not surprised. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 NAM is a ZR to rain to snow for most of WNC. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 The stronger the system the more its going to cut inland. We are a long way from nailing this down currently. I see no clear trends other than you want to be in the mountains for this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Looking at soundings and margins are razor thin in the upper atmosphere. 1 degree difference at the surface and that would have all been snow. We will see, this track is far from nailed down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I would rather roll with a stronger system like the nam as opposed to weaker. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, Met1985 said: 12z Nam. Another solution... And im not surprised. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk you can really see the elevation drop off as it steps down into the foothills. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: NAM is a ZR to rain to snow for most of WNC. . OUCH. Hard pass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 RDPS keeps getting warmer.. that's somewhat concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I would still roll with this look and take our chances. Buzz word is going to start being Dynamic Cooling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Hvward said: RDPS keeps getting warmer.. that's somewhat concerning. I noticed that as well. This is going to be a 25th hour to decide who gets under the best forcing. Even the mountains could miss out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 25 minutes ago, Hvward said: RDPS keeps getting warmer.. that's somewhat concerning. I guess it's just the closer surface low track making the difference there? I know the vort is a little weaker than on the NAM but it has temperatures rising in spots that should be dynamically cooling given the upper air temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Very good 12z GFS run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 12z gfs snowfall mapSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Very good 12z GFS run BANK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Such a nice look: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: Incredible hit across Haywood County. I'm a bit concerned there may be some convective feedback on the GFS. 16 inches in Maggie. Haywood has been the jackpot for the southern mountains every run it seems. 48 more hours to go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Lines up with the nam well! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Should be some big hits for yall on the GEFSSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 With models now showing most if not all of our snow coming from a deform band type feature as the upper level energy swings through behind the surface low, I guess we pretty much wanna go all in on as strong and dynamic of a system as we can get, even if it means more rain from the beginning of the storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, SnowDawg said: With models now showing most if not all of our snow coming from a deform band type feature as the upper level energy swings through behind the surface low, I guess we pretty much wanna go all in on as strong and dynamic of a system as we can get, even if it means more rain from the beginning of the storm. Exactly! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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