Hvward Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Wow this is the best 50 member look I have seen in a while on the 12z EPS. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, Hvward said: Wow this is the best 50 member look I have seen in a while on the 12z EPS. Yeah Hunter it's great to see the euro and eps jump on board big time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 18z nam coming in with a big hit! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Hunters video. https://youtube.com/watch?v=9NJU7_fFGUE&si=EnSIkaIECMiOmarE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: Great video update this afternoon Hunter. Appreciate the time you put in for our WNC Weather Community! No problem man! Glad to be apart of it. I was just a lurker here in 2010. I give a lot of credit to this board. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The very end of the 18z NAM. Yes I know it at range but we are just analyzing at this point.Sent from my SM-G998U using TapatalkIt looks a little moisture starved to me and it still shows 4” of accumulation around Asheville by 1am Sunday morning. This thing has big time boom potential here in WNC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, Hvward said: It looks a little moisture starved to me and it still shows 4” of accumulation around Asheville by 1am Sunday morning. This thing has big time boom potential here in WNC. Yeah no kidding! This is a classic synoptic look for us. We can get big snows from this type setup but it's been years since we've had one roll through that looks like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The very end of the 18z NAM. Yes I know it at range but we are just analyzing at this point.Sent from my SM-G998U using TapatalkThis is the end of the 12z not the 18z.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Short range Canadian is usually one of the coldest models. Its one of the warmest so far for this potential event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, BornAgain13 said: This is the end of the 12z not the 18z. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Dang it is isn't it. Nice catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 18z NAMSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The 18Z nam is actually pretty far west with the low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 At this point I will take the East v. West game all day, especially if we're in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Still aways to go... LOL.. re: 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 At least its the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Lol congrats middle Georgia and South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 18z gfs snowmapSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 If Augusta gets over a foot of snow and Boone gets 3 inches I will jump into South Toe River Sunday night. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 We should not be surprised about this... hopefully ensembles are better. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 This is funny considering it is the gfs. It finds the storm then goes off the rails lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Something definitely off with that run. At H5 and with the surface low it continued to tick towards the other guidance with the slower/west trend. But the precip map is just bonkers. 1004 mbar low over Savannah to a 1002 over Charleston and somehow almost no precip in the mountains. The physics don't even add up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Short range Canadian is usually one of the coldest models. Its one of the warmest so far for this potential event If this could go just a few frames more I still think it would look really good in the mountains, the 850's are just starting to crash. It is even slower than the Euro, notice the surface low still in SW GA while most other guidance is around Hilton Head at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 18z gfs ens snow mean. Still not bad with such a shit run. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The ens doesn't even support the op with where the heaviest snowfall was shown. Im highly suspect of any measurable snowfall outside the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Gotta remember the GEFS under-dispersal problem as well. The GEFS will always somewhat resemble the OP to some extent because of this. The key is to try and see through the noise and if there's a large number of members are fighting against the OP's idea, which its clear there is. GFS led the way in sniffing out this threat, but its now been left on an island in terms of timing and placement of the heaviest precip. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 18z euro was warmer aloft through 12z Sunday. Shifted everything west a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: 18z euro was warmer aloft through 12z Sunday. Shifted everything west a little. This is what I'm most concerned about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 21 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: 18z euro was warmer aloft through 12z Sunday. Shifted everything west a little. Euro control looks like a decent estimation of what that run would look like rolled forward. Not terrible for the mountain counties, but far from ideal. That eastern cutoff moves further west, and East-Central Tennessee ends up the big winner as far as the south is concerned. Hopefully we're just seeing some of the windshield wiper effect and it'll start ticking back eastward over the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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