BhamParker Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 12z NAM looked pretty solid with the NW flow setup. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Looking forward to Friday. I’m in a weird spot in the foothills that always seems to see some non-accumulating token flakes flying during robust events. Might be all I see this winter so I’m going to soak it in! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 @Holston_River_Rambler has a great write up about the fetch of moisture coming off off Lake Michigan that yall should go read. Again we get hammered whenever the flow sets up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Winter Storm Watched issued for Smokies. Lets goooooo! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 311 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-121000- /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0001.230113T0500Z-230114T1200Z/ Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi- Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Monroe- Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, Gatlinburg, Citico, and Coker Creek 311 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible with locally higher totals possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Mountains of East Tennessee, generally at or above 2500 feet elevation. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 The NAM is really picking up on some intensity with the snow after dark on Friday night. I have noticed it the last couple of suites. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Gsp of course waiting until tomorrow morning but hey we love our weather guys at the gsp. The trends on the NAM are very telling. Asheville has continued to see an uptick in snowfall and this latest run really sees a much more uniform snow line across a large portion of the mountains. You can also see the connection from lake Michigan right into our mountain areas more and more with each run. The euro had this as well and each model run only strengthens this connection. Someone here in the mountains is getting a foot plus on this side. I just about guarantee that. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 18z GFS went pretty crazy as well!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 56 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Someone here in the mountains is getting a foot plus on this side. I just about guarantee that. His name is @Bucketheadlol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 46 minutes ago, WxKnurd said: His name is @Bucketheadlol We will do very well where we are at also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 I’m really excited for this one. Always enjoy hanging out with y’all for an event or two in the winter and get to pretend I’m a mountain liver. We will be arriving late tomorrow night in Gatlinburg and will be ready to go. Looking forward to it! Son is almost 2 and is starting to realize things a little more. . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 NAM modeling 61” snow at Clingman’s Dome! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Good luck to all you guys. I'll be heading to the North GA mountains on Friday morning so I'll be out of here before the fun stuff starts. Gonna try to get up to the higher elevations on Saturday and enjoy whatever little bit they get down there, though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Good luck to all you guys. I'll be heading to the North GA mountains on Friday morning so I'll be out of here before the fun stuff starts. Gonna try to get up to the higher elevations on Saturday and enjoy whatever little bit they get down there, though.Did you see the hrrr? It has the gl fetch reaching down there.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Did you see the hrrr? It has the gl fetch reaching down there.Sent from my SM-S908U using TapatalkYeah not terrible.Unfortunately my wife just tested positive for COVID so we have drastically changed our weekend plans in the last hour. We will be sitting here at home for the next few days and going down there another weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 The NAM is very impressive. Still rolling in but looks very robust. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 The NAM has some very robust and impressive totals along the border counties. I think we are really seeing an uptick in snowfall because the model is catching onto the fetch of moisture coming across lake Michigan which will just feed directly into this northern vort. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Great trends at 500mb. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Much more negative tilt..Graham,Swain, Haywood absolutely clocked.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 minute ago, snowbird1230 said: Much more negative tilt..Graham,Swain, Haywood absolutely clocked.. Yeah a foot plus! Im liking what im seeing across a large portion of the mountains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 The lakes not being totally frozen helps the fetch coming in too. Smokies may be the jackpot area with the orientation of the flow. Hopefully west Asheville will get some good squalls while I'm at work Friday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The lakes not being totally frozen helps the fetch coming in too. Smokies may be the jackpot area with the orientation of the flow. Hopefully west Asheville will get some good squalls while I'm at work Friday. Yeah I think Friday night a lot of people see some snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 I definitely think some streamers will make it over the mountains into the foothills with this one if the trends continue to look good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Add the GFS to the streamer party. NAM, RGEM, and GFS have all ramped up to start 00z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Just now, BhamParker said: Add the GFS to the streamer party. NAM, RGEM, and GFS have all ramped up to start 00z. Yeah gfs is really latching onto the fetch of moisture off of Lake Michigan this run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Also don't overlook the squall line blowing through here tomorrow night. That thing is going to be potent and may cause some damage also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 That squall line has my attention. It looks to strengthen as it moves through our area. Wind damage possible for sure. I saw a massive boar black bear roaming the shoulder on 240 today not far from the mall in Asheville. Had to be 350-400 pounds. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Gfs still looks good but at this point this is where the short range models come into the light. Also this is going to be a long duration event especially with the energy wrapping up so tightly. A lot of moisture and a lot of energy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: That squall line has my attention. It looks to strengthen as it moves through our area. Wind damage possible for sure. I saw a massive boar black bear roaming the shoulder on 240 today not far from the mall in Asheville. Had to be 350-400 pounds. Yeah that line looks to mean business. Probably torrential rainfall, hail, and high winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 GSP will hoist a watch up tomorrow morning then a warning tomorrow afternoon. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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