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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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Worth noting the NWFS on the backside looked better on this run of the GFS.
I think border areas over 5k easily get a foot. Gonna be wringing a lot of moisture out.

I'm also interested to see if this trends towards a temps-outrun-the-precip deal with a change to snow before the main frontal band actually moves out over the mountains. That cold push is SHARP.

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Worth noting the NWFS on the backside looked better on this run of the GFS.
I think border areas over 5k easily get a foot. Gonna be wringing a lot of moisture out.

I'm also interested to see if this trends towards a temps-outrun-the-precip deal with a change to snow before the main frontal band actually moves out over the mountains. That cold push is SHARP.

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I noticed that...I'm still pretty optimistic about the upslope component!

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4 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

I noticed that...I'm still pretty optimistic about the upslope component!

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You are sitting pretty for sure.  Hoping us Haywood posters can squeeze out 2-3” down here from this setup, I’d feel better if I was up on Waterrock Knob, Hemphill, Max Patch or even Crabtree Bald 3 miles to my NW.  Elevation is always king (except for inversions or a wedge lol)!

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Well might as well have some fun with the short range models.  The 21z SREF plums are giving our regional anywhere from a trace to 1 inch of snow from this southern slider.  For what it's worth.

 

Also the 3k NAM is trying to drum up some flakes for the southern mountains. 

Also todays euro run finally got on board with the idea of some very light snow for the southern mountains today for the first time in days.  Imagine that it just pops up with snow within 24 hours.... Crazy. 

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Also current temp is a cool 30 degrees.  The front that's going to blow through here means business.  We will see some huge temp drops in a very short period.  If you have outdoor animals bring them in or get some very thick bedding out of the wind for them. We will likely see temps below zero. Make sure your car is winterized and your pipes are insulated because this cold means business.  Take care of things early this week before the weather goes to crap.

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7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The gfs is even more extreme.  Lets take a look. Again we will use the Asheville airport. At hour 93 they are at 42 degrees. Hour 96 down to 14! Hour 99 at 8 degrees. That really shows the rapid drop but the euro is actually colder than the gfs for us. Again just a bit of fun with the models. 

Saw on Weather Channel that Denver will go from 52 at 300PM to -4 at 1200AM.  :D:shiver:

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Not saying it’s gonna help us a lot or that a 500 mile shift back to last week is gonna happen, but the east corrections with the low track have kept up all day thus far with 0Z runs from the “big boy” models to come. At the very least an Apps Runner track should help upslope for border counties.

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[mention=3757]Tyler[/mention] Penland (and anyone else under those returns) are you seeing anything reaching the ground?ae7a17e05e299727c904e8b916e47fa3.gif

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Negative. I peeked outside earlier to check when I seen them. Was hoping for flurries.

Probably getting eaten up by the dry air. Currently 29/22.

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Coldest run of the GFS for Boone yet. From 33 to 1 from 6-12z Friday and down to -1 by afternoon. Bottoms out at -3.

Ive actually never seen below zero temps so that would be a first for me.


Brrrrrrrrrr


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gfs_wchill_charlotte_96.thumb.jpg.9749df096576eaa722b20cd8453f16a3.jpg
With wind chills -20 to -30. Geez. Definitely time to put the flip flops away now.

Also, check out the 0z cmc for the 27th-28th. That time frame is looking more and more interesting. The gfs looked like it wanted to pop a low on the coast but never did. 2f7aec03dbe00e185635004fe034b1c5.jpg2f58da35cf3dcb6057ba1082ed11ada5.jpg

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With wind chills -20 to -30. Geez. Definitely time to put the flip flops away now.

Also, check out the 0z cmc for the 27th-28th. That time frame is looking more and more interesting. The gfs looked like it wanted to pop a low on the coast but never did. [

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The GFS has been trending in the right way for the past couple days. I think Met pointed out the CMC is actually beating the gfs/euro in the long range.

Here's hoping.

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18 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said:

As usual precip is further north than any model shows. Reaching into southern Tennessee. I think they’ll be some snow flurries/showers in the southern mnts this evening.

It’s really a shame we’re whiffing on this one. If that precip shield came north a bit more, we’d all be enjoying a nice 2-4 inch event.

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