Daniel Boone Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Oh yeah im not giving up but all the models have been atrocious with this pattern setup even the damn Euro. It's not the king because in the mid range it was clueless especially on the PAC side. The gfs really has been very consistent the past few days with the euro literature moving lows 700 miles from run to run. We very well may see something pop once we get 2 to 3 days from a system coming through. Seems like the more upgrades the worst the models get... I agree completely man. Model's appear to have gotten worse over the last couple years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Also don't look now but the nam is really wanting to do something with the system on the 20th. Giving several mountain counties some frozen precipitation even down into part of the foothills. This is kind of what im talking about sneaky little systems showing up in under 3 days...Classic case of globals severely underestimating the northern precip shield.Nothing has changed since 2014 with that trend. I wouldn't be surprised to see totals go up even more. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 24 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: Classic case of globals severely underestimating the northern precip shield. Nothing has changed since 2014 with that trend. I wouldn't be surprised to see totals go up even more. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk Yes sir I concur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 46 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Man if that warmth aloft is overdone even in the slightest, this could turn into a really nice snow event all things considered. NAM now showing around a qtr inch or more QPF area wide for Tuesday. Hunter called it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Really no change on the gfs to mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Maybe tomorrow or Tuesday the models will come around a little. Sure would hate to waste all this cold air in place and no moisture, just our luck. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Tacoma said: Maybe tomorrow or Tuesday the models will come around a little. Should would hate to waste all this cold air in place and no moisture, just our luck. Yeah still loads of time for these models to adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Well I figure if they adjusted themselves for the bad maybe they'll adjust back for the better like what the GFS was showing coming out of the Gulf on the 26th. Let's get back to that solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 New NAM coming in drier. Still really really close. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 New NAM is dryer but much more expensive in the snow department. It's not much but it would be very festive feeling according to the 00z NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 NAM 3k is more suppressed with it's moisture. Suppressed?! Bullcrap! It'll come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 NAM 3k is more suppressed with it's moisture. Suppressed?! Bullcrap! It'll come north.Yeah the 3k looks weird. Not sure why it isn't kicking more moisture up.Issue is a wicked dry slot in the mid levels but the 12km and 32km don't have that issue.Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The overnight and morning runs are about the same. Pretty meh. Coldest morning of the season. When I left work at 4:30 we were down to 13 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 19.8 for the bottom last night! . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 22 here in Tiger, GA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 20.8 here for the low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 19 here. At least we can talk about the cold.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 19.2 imby this morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 35 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: 19.2 imby this morning Nice! Did you find a spot closer to the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 17.2 this morning. We live in a cold sink, so I’m at least excited to see what happens over this next week. Won’t be surprised if I can hit single digits Saturday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Hour 72 on the NAM is such a teaser. That 1041 high over Canada almost gets the job done but it’s just a bit too far away to make it happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Real no change on the gfs. Rain maybe some backside flakes then flash freeze. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Don't think this upcoming pattern is the one. Probably best to blow it up with a warmup and start over in January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, wncsnow said: Don't think this upcoming pattern is the one. Probably best to blow it up with a warmup and start over in January. Was just thinking the same thing. My biggest fear from the start was that the push of cold would be too much. When people started talking about the piece of the polar vortex breaking off, I had a bad feeling. It’s such a balancing act and this surge is just too overwhelming to kick off anything meaningful in our area. I’d love to see one good classic setup in Jan or February where we can get a sprawling high over upstate NY and rely on true CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Remember we still have January and February to come. Those months are prime climo. Im not worried at all. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Nice! Did you find a spot closer to the mountains? I wish! I’m still in Fountain Inn and my search continues. It was a bit chilly here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: I wish! I’m still in Fountain Inn and my search continues. It was a bit chilly here Yeah land around here is freaking insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 33 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Don't think this upcoming pattern is the one. Probably best to blow it up with a warmup and start over in January. But this was hailed as the pattern of all patterns...best in almost 15 years...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Remember we still have January and February to come. Those months are prime climo. Im not worried at all. Totally understand about January and February but this pattern was to be so great just hate to see all this cold and no storm. I thought we were almost a lock on about three different storms that surely one of those would give us the goods. At one time I thought we might even get hit with two storms. Just ashame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, Tacoma said: Totally understand about January and February but this pattern was to be so great just hate to see all this cold and no storm. I thought we were almost a lock on about three different storms that surely one of those would give us the goods. At one time I thought we might even get hit with two storms. Just ashame. Disclaimer this whole post is my opinion and I hope no one takes offense... Oh I understand the frustration but our climate is and has changed. Im not getting into the whole global warming but the numbers are there, the lack of snowfall is there. I think there are a lot of variables at play and really we are in uncharted territory when it comes to our current climate. Not being pessimistic but just stating things are different and we have to be knowledgeable of those differences in todays time. Also I think the models are sh!t currently. Recently the cmc has been scoring way higher than the gfs and the euro in the long to mid range. Gfs has gone by the way side and the euro is not what it used to be. So that makes things extremely difficult because you really don't have a solid all around go to model currently all in my personal opinion though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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