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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Models are modeling.  All ill say is the the ensembles are still looking good. The cold air will be around we just need things to match up. Just be patient. We are fixing to enter into much better climo snow wise.

I agree. I don’t see any reason to think anything has been canceled or delayed. With a pattern change this stout and the teleconnections on the table, it’s wise to take the average of the models instead of falling for the back and forth of the Ops.

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6 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said:

I have to chuckle at the mood swings on this board in the various Regions. I'm thankful for our group here in the Mountains that always maintain a balance and have knowledge throughout our various microclimates and bring sound reasoning to our discussions!

I second this! Our group is always level headed.  No breakdowns or mood swings.

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RNK really downplaying any ice potential across NW NC and south/central VA tomorrow night. NAM is way overdone as usual but I have a hard time believing its going to bust that badly further north in areas where it shows predominately a snow/sleet event over a large part of VA. I guess we'll find out soon enough. 

Regardless might be a slick commute in on Thursday morning along the NW escarpment. 

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3 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Overnight euro is wild. We get heavy synoptic snow to heavy upslope snow with temps dropping near zero and windy asf.... Some places are showing over a foot of snow and this has ENS support....

Just to extrapolate out for fun. I would assume that would be 6+ for all the mountains and some 3 feet totals on the border with some insane snow ratios. Fun times are definitely ahead fellas!

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1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Don’t look now but still… that Monday/Tuesday timeframe is intriguing again. 
 

12z GFS with a weak high over Pennsylvania and a disturbance trying to fester to our south. It even has snow showers breaking out over SW NC.

Yeah saw that. Little things like that will pop up out of nowhere at the last minute with this pattern change

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