JoshM Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Yeah 1 inch of ice plus... I don't think so. Calling it right now. GFS is seeing the blocking... baby steps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 More big improvements on the 00z gfs all inside 200 hours. This is the most aggressive and the deepest I've seen the gfs take this first batch of cold air across our area. Again the gfs is finally catching onto this major blocking. The upslope action would be a foot plus in favored areas on this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, JoshM said: GFS is seeing the blocking... baby steps. Yep I just wrote that. All inside 200 hours which is a big step. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Nasty ice storm showing up on the 06z GFS for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 The Euro isn't even close. With the low pressure up in the northern plains its highly unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 All in all im happy with todays runs. Everything still looks good from the 15th on. I think in our region we are in the middle. The battle ground which im fine with. We get most of our best snows right on the line anyways. I see lots of threats for frozen precipitation on the 12z today. Euro is rolling out now. Also a nice chilly day today with the temp at 47 currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 The 12z euro is cold. Colder than the gfs. No storm next week but it brings down colder air further south which means days of upslope in my opinion. The euro stays cold through the end of the run with a huge high coming down from Canada also at the end. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 13 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The 12z euro is cold. Colder than the gfs. No storm next week but it brings down colder air further south which means days of upslope in my opinion. The euro stays cold through the end of the run with a huge high coming down from Canada also at the end. Yeah last few frames of the Euro looks absolutely beautiful at H5. Huge EPO ridge tucked right in against the west coast, west based Greenland block going nuts, and plenty of negative anomalies in the 50/50 region. All the while a piece of energy in the southern jet running through the 4 corners region towards the gulf, and northern stream energy diving out of Canada. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Dang the 12z eps is a thing of beautiful! I mean we've not seen a look this good in years in my opinion. I mean this pattern change is on our doorstep. We are roughly 6 days away from this pattern change for us. Just an absolute beautiful run for us. Storm or no storm this is exciting times coming up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 25 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Yeah last few frames of the Euro looks absolutely beautiful at H5. Huge EPO ridge tucked right in against the west coast, west based Greenland block going nuts, and plenty of negative anomalies in the 50/50 region. All the while a piece of energy in the southern jet running through the 4 corners region towards the gulf, and northern stream energy diving out of Canada. Yeah no kidding! I mean any little change from the above mentioned will change the pattern but dang the euro and the eps is a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 No happy hour on the 18z. Actually probably one of the worst runs the past few days. The cold air just really slowly bleeds in but not a push like what has been showing. I expect more changes though as the verification scores for the op gfs have been meager recently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Certainly not the run you wanted to see after how perfect the 12z runs were, completely obliterates the blocking. It's had a few runs like this over the past week and then reverted back to the bridge block over the top, so hopefully that'll be the case again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 The 18z ensembles still brings the cold front blasting through the area. Looks nothing like the OP. Looks good to me still. In general the GEFS has been pretty rock steady other than a few runs here and there... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Also a nice cool evening with a temp of 43 already with thick fog. I might be weird but I enjoy this weather at this time of the year. It's kept things cool and damp and something about the Christmas lights shinning through thick fog that looks like a landing strip for Santa lol. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Man oh man this pattern is going to favor some seriously frequent flow events. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 00z op gfs looks a lot like the 18z. No real push in cold air. It's delayed a bit and just kind of bleeds through. I wouldn't even call it a cold front but a zonal flow. Again the ensembles have not been supporting this. If the Euro is right with blowing the front through then something is very wrong with the gfs. The freaking update broke it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Good Lord at the cold air coming down from Canada in the northern plains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 I doubt this happens this way but most get a few inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Gfs says what plus pna and negative EPO. dumps some bone chilling cold all in the east and northern plains while we bask in the SER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Once again the gfs own ensembles do not agree with the op. This is a running trend over several days... The GEFS blows the cold front through the region once again and looks much better than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Oof...amazing that we could go from that look at 12z to raging east coast ridge as far as the eye can see so quickly. Clearly a very volatile pattern, and trusting the models past a few days out is probably foolish move for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Euro and eps look good. Continued cold coming in with ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 This is like a broken record but again the GEFS does not agree with the OP. It blasts the front through here and the majority of us get cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: This is like a broken record but again the GEFS does not agree with the OP. It blasts the front through here and the majority of us get cold. the OP has been on such a wild ride these past few days. It was still painting phantom hurricanes in the Atlantic just a few days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: the OP has been on such a wild ride these past few days. It was still painting phantom hurricanes in the Atlantic just a few days ago. Yeah I think there has been some serious damage done to the model since this upgrade. It's behaving erratic and there is no continuity from run to run. To me it's the worst model we have currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Euro now showing a huge ice event with temps 29-31 in the northern mountains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 34 minutes ago, chris21 said: Euro now showing a huge ice event with temps 29-31 in the northern mountains. I’m trying to find an ice accumulation map and I felt like the Tropical Tidbits products used to have it under each model run but now it’s not there anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 I’m trying to find an ice accumulation map and I felt like the Tropical Tidbits products used to have it under each model run but now it’s not there anymore. Here you go! Looking forward to this pattern change. At the least NWF areas should get hammered next Friday and Saturday.. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Maggie Ace said: Try Pivital Weather Maps. Appreciate that. Looking at the Canadian be lights out along the 81 corridor if it came to fruition (showing 1/2” plus) Between this and Euro not looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Temps been dropping since this morning. Down to 44 already with continued thick clouds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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