Met1985 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Current temp is down to 27 degrees with heavy frost. Todays high now is 48... One thing im noticing is that temps are getting tapered down a lot come the day of. Just like this mornings low was only supposed to be 34 degrees and today's high just a few days ago was supposed to be 64 degrees. Instead we have seen a 15 degree to colder and if the overnight euro is correct then the warmth we were supposed to get will be muted greatly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 4 hours ago, Met1985 said: Current temp is down to 27 degrees with heavy frost. Todays high now is 48... One thing im noticing is that temps are getting tapered down a lot come the day of. Just like this mornings low was only supposed to be 34 degrees and today's high just a few days ago was supposed to be 64 degrees. Instead we have seen a 15 degree to colder and if the overnight euro is correct then the warmth we were supposed to get will be muted greatly. Yep. Typically what happens when a block sets up. Models usually adjust south with Systems as well. Our biggest worry is a connect with the SER and -NAO. If that doesn't happen we may be in business in a week to 10 days snow wise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Good morning! It is that time of year again and I hope to make a trip to the mountains again this year for a storm. I have a quick question in regards to GEFS/EPS maps. What is the best station in regards to the location of Lake Toxaway/Highlands North Carolina for me to keep bookmarked on my weather model page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 27 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: Temperature is busting way too low so far for today. Just had some sleet pellets mixed with light rain in Maggie with my current temperature of 41. Yeah it's downright raw today. We will come on way low and well below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 The hell with the gfs currently. Been doing a lot of reading and I don't think the gfs has a clue on what's going on with the blocking pattern taking shape. I think the euro has a better grasp on things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The hell with the gfs currently. Been doing a lot of reading and I don't think the gfs has a clue on what's going on with the blocking pattern taking shape. I think the euro has a better grasp on things. No doubt. Run to run throws many different options around for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: No doubt. Run to run throws many different options around for sure. Yeah and not only the OP but the ensembles are doing the same thing on drastic changes from run to run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 The Euro weeklies look great from the 15th onwards... All good signs and lines up for our target date. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 The GFS run to run models have zero continuity. And it's moving high and low pressure hundreds of miles from run to run. Either the new upgrade to the gfs sucks that bad or this whole pattern change is a farce.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 You can bet the weather outlets, apps and even most NWSFO's are going with the GFS . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 One thing is for sure, it's going to be really wet this month. Hopefully we can get the cold sooner or later.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 GEFS took positive steps with the PNA. That’s one key teleconnection that keeps looking better by the day despite the insanity for every other run and pattern signal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 I know one thing.. The ski resorts are going to be hurting if the pattern doesn't change soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 The realistic side of me knows this is in fantasy land on the GFS. The weenie in me can't stop looking anyway. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 13 hours ago, Buckethead said: The realistic side of me knows this is in fantasy land on the GFS. The weenie in me can't stop looking anyway. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk There’s a weenie in all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Once again I see my highs getting pushed back 10 to 15 degrees from the NWS. I still have yet to break 60 this week with heavy fog and rain. We were supposed to be near 70 all week. Looks like we will be right near normal after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Once again I see my highs getting pushed back 10 to 15 degrees from the NWS. I still have yet to break 60 this week with heavy fog and rain. We were supposed to be near 70 all week. Looks like we will be right near normal after today. It has been like this since September for me ..highs have yet to verify . We need an explanation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 We are finally seeing the effects of the blocking and the ridge bridge over the top. The 12z GEFS was the coldest run here in the region that we have seen. The cmc is very cold for us also and all this is in the 7 to 9 day range so we are for sure moving forward. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 12z Euro looked really good from about hour 168 onwards and you can see at the end of the run much colder air working down from Canada. Again im taking the mid to long range op runs with a grain of salt but the recent ensemble runs support this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 The 12z eps is one of the coldest yet. The eps looks great again from about hour 168 onwards. Some really cold air for sure. Today's trends are exactly what we want to see. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 The 18z gefs is by far the coldest we've seen with the ensembles finally catching onto the major blocking going on over the top and into AK. From about hour 168 through the rest of the run we stay below average. The models should still continue to adjust as we march towards next week. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Also another temp fail today. Only got up to 52 degrees. Was supposed to hit 62. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: I think we can safely say any drought worries are over. Next week look Cloudy and cool across the Mountains until a strong cold front arrives late next week. I believe the period from around the 18th until the end of December will bring snow showers every 3 to 5 days and the possibility of at least a couple of big storms during the Christmas Holiday period. We need the cold and snow. It's beginning to impact the typically busy Christmas into New Year Holiday Season regarding tourists. We have 2 Airbnb rentals that are booked, but no advanced bookings at all in January for our typical Cataloochee and Tube World visitors. Yeah this weather has been depressing at best but yes much needed rainfall for sure. Literally days and days of rainfall and clouds and fog. I enjoy this weather really but I'd rather see clouds and days and days of snow lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Also looking at the whole 18z GEFS that is some insane cold air up in Canada. I mean bone chilling cold air up in Canada and the mechanisms are there to bring chunks of that down into the lower 48. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 6 hours ago, Met1985 said: We are finally seeing the effects of the blocking and the ridge bridge over the top. The 12z GEFS was the coldest run here in the region that we have seen. The cmc is very cold for us also and all this is in the 7 to 9 day range so we are for sure moving forward. IF the projected Pattern pans out, the CMC would be the winner at range irt the Operationals. It has constantly projected the very cold Pattern. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 00z gfs has a raging ice storm now for around the 15th.... Of course it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: 00z gfs has a raging ice storm now for around the 15th.... Of course it does. 850s are below 0 for western NC, clown map is hilarious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, JoshM said: 850s are below 0 for western NC, clown map is hilarious Yeah it is. A wild solution but I think it has something to do with that cold high pressure that literally spins down from Canada into the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, JoshM said: 850s are below 0 for western NC, clown map is hilarious Yeah 1 inch of ice plus... I don't think so. Calling it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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