meatwad Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 000 FXUS61 KPBZ 092311 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 611 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions will continue through Thursday as high pressure remains in control. Heavy rainfall is possible Friday as tropical moisture from Nicole interacts with an approaching cold front. Much colder temperatures are forecast this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Strong upper high over VA around 590 dm with 270 dm anomally over SW Ontario continues to keep mild and dry airmass over Upper Ohio Valley. Surface 1035 mb high over southern New England has a sharp ridge that extends back along the east slope of Appalachians. Dew points in the teens and 20s expected to gradually rise overnight about 10F as noctural decoupling reduces mixing from very dry air aloft. South to southeast flow and weak warm advection will result in milder overnight lows than last night. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure still in control Thursday with a warming trend in temperatures as ridging shifts eastward across the area. Thursday night, subtropical storm Nicole will begin to bring moisture into the Ohio Valley, coincident with a Great Lakes low pressure`s cold front. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible early Friday morning and throughout the day with between 1.75" to 2.75" currently forecast across the region. Compounding the heavy rainfall through is the parched ground that may not be quite as receptive to heavy rainfall. As well, heavy leaf fall may clog drains in urban areas. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... By Saturday, high pressure will attempt to nose into the region from the southwest. However, low level west to northwest flow off of the lake will begin to initiate some showers off the lake. By Saturday night into Sunday, the core of the colder air will move into the Upper OH Valley with 850 temps around -8 to -10 Celsius. A post frontal trough will assist in the productions of some snow showers across the northern counties Saturday night through the day on Sunday. The potential for snow showers will persist through the day on Monday until finally, surface high further infiltrates from the west cutting off the flow off the lake with dry conditions and cooler than normal temperatures in place. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR with light SSE wind is expected through the TAF period under a ridge of high pressure. .OUTLOOK.... Restrictions in rain are expected to overspread the region from S-N as low pressure, the remnants of tropical system Nicole, tracks from the SE CONUS to the Upper Ohio Valley region late Thu night through Fri eve. The low will also phase with a crossing cold front. Cig restrictions are likely through Mon under subsequent upper troughing and cold W-NW flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Craven LONG TERM... AVIATION...07 Looks like we could get 1.75 to 2.75" of rain, only if it was in the teens and 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 On 11/9/2022 at 11:31 AM, dj3 said: Can you imagine the dryslot/p-type concerns we'd be worrying about if the rain storm happening this Friday was happening a month from now? Looks like the global models have shifted back east a bit. Short range still seems to have the heaviest access into eastern OH but either way 1.5 - 2.5 inches looks like a good bet. Euro for reference: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 30 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Looks like the global models have shifted back east a bit. Short range still seems to have the heaviest access into eastern OH but either way 1.5 - 2.5 inches looks like a good bet. Euro for reference: The distribution would be great during winter. I think the track would still be too close for comfort even in winter, it brings the low in pretty close to home. Check out the wintry 12z GFS extended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 This slug of rain has me ready for a good thump of snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 1.95 here so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 000 SXUS71 KPBZ 120636 RRA RERPIT RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 0134 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2022 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT PITTSBURGH PA... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.36 WAS SET AT PITTSBURGH PA YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.72 SET IN 1983. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted November 12, 2022 Share Posted November 12, 2022 2.83” here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 So, is it looking like we're going to waste this cold period? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 11 hours ago, Ahoff said: So, is it looking like we're going to waste this cold period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 9 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: Eerie is looking golden for alot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 11 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: So, the answer is yes, cause we know there's no 15" of snow coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted November 15, 2022 Author Share Posted November 15, 2022 Coldest morning this morning, and first 20s of the season. Down to 29. Maybe we get a little dusting of snow before the warmer air comes in. Ron Smiley said a few hours of snow in the afternoon. Granted, it's not at a great time of day for accumulation this early in the season, but at least there could be a small chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Starting as snowflakes in Robinson. Not expecting much, although the mountains look like they could pick up a few inches. I was hoping a disturbance would pop up in the short range so it wouldn't be cold/dry this weekend but not seeing anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted November 15, 2022 Author Share Posted November 15, 2022 Decent snow in Downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Nice burst of fatties coming down right now. Radar looks like a heavier burst is possible, not sure if that is some sort of mix though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Moderate snow with big fluffy flakes. Covering the grassy areas and rooftops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Really coming down in Greentree. And I started another thread by mistake. Didn't see this one. Ignore the other one. I don't know how to delete it. LolSent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Coming down good here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted November 15, 2022 Author Share Posted November 15, 2022 Nice big flakes now in town. Hopefully, i can see a little on the grass when I get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 It's happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted November 15, 2022 Author Share Posted November 15, 2022 Radar still indicates heavy rain in downtown. It most definitely is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Thumping nicely…the usual colder surfaces are slushy/white. A few degrees colder this would be an easy couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 From the cpa thread 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted November 15, 2022 Author Share Posted November 15, 2022 26 minutes ago, meatwad said: From the cpa thread Might just be. Nice little early season excitement. Also, obs at the airport are interesting just before noon it was 38 and light snow, now obs are 32 with snow. Interesting how that heavier burst cooled the air. Would never happen Dec.-Feb. but nice to see it can happen here, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 It was really ripping from about 1:00-2:00. Over half an inch on top of the car and nice coating on the grass. Definitely makes me want to track something soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Might just be. Nice little early season excitement. Also, obs at the airport are interesting just before noon it was 38 and light snow, now obs are 32 with snow. Interesting how that heavier burst cooled the air. Would never happen Dec.-Feb. but nice to see it can happen here, lol. Dynamic cooling for the win with the heavy rates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 37 minutes ago, dj3 said: Dynamic cooling for the win with the heavy rates. Probably a bit of wet bulbing going on here, dew points were generally 29-30 degrees when the heavier rates moved in. Nice .25 - .5 inch of wet snow, even started accumulating on shaded pavement briefly. Enough my son had to go outside and play in. First snowball fight of the season under my belt now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted November 15, 2022 Author Share Posted November 15, 2022 Switched over to rain. The heavy burst was nice while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted November 15, 2022 Author Share Posted November 15, 2022 Back to snow, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 Just over 1” here, with the biggest fatties of the day coming. Roads coating up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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