Hurricane Earl

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Amped]

Deepening in about 25kt of SW shear.

[Prismshine Productions]

Earl is a solid candidate for ugliest Hurricane...

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[hawkeye_wx]

Satellite presentation is not pretty, but the pressure has dropped to 978 mb.

[NorthHillsWx]

Earl is steadily strengthening. This is a robust circulation to be holding its own and actually intensify in the face of extremely strong shear. I take back what I said, I am now fully expecting this to become a major. I did not expect the system to maintain or strengthen until the shear decreased given the look it had and now that it has its foundation it should be able to capitalize on the short window of favorable conditions. 
 

Earl and Danielle being extremely slow moving storms are racking up ACE for the basin. After Earl’s final act, we may not be much below average seasonal ACE to this point. Pretty remarkable feat for a slow season. 

[Intensewind002]

6 hours ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Earl is a solid candidate for ugliest Hurricane...

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk
 

No storm will ever beat Hurricane Barry from a few years back in terms of ugliness, that thing was literally just a big rain band with literally no convection over or north of the center. How it managed to attain hurricane strength is a mystery of the universe considering I've seen 40 kt tropical storms that looked better

[Prismshine Productions]

No storm will ever beat Hurricane Barry from a few years back in terms of ugliness, that thing was literally just a big rain band with literally no convection over or north of the center. How it managed to attain hurricane strength is a mystery of the universe considering I've seen 40 kt tropical storms that looked better

You got me there...

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[Prismshine Productions]

Pressure down to 972

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[hawkeye_wx]

Latest dropsonde pressure is 976 mb.

[hawkeye_wx]

New dropsonde found 971 mb.

The shear is gradually diminishing as the upper low to the west drifts south and the hurricane lifts north.  Outflow is really fanning out.

[cptcatz]

Gotta say the number of recon flights is impressive. I guess they're making up for all the missed flights in August? 96 knot flight level wind just recorded.

[WxWatcher007]

50 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Gotta say the number of recon flights is impressive. I guess they're making up for all the missed flights in August? 96 knot flight level wind just recorded.

As slow as it’s been getting Earl to intensify, this has been an outstanding opportunity for recon to conduct research. 

[Prismshine Productions]

As slow as it’s been getting Earl to intensify, this has been an outstanding opportunity for recon to conduct research. 

Change the thread header:

8pm advisory
90mph
971mb

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Change the thread header:

8pm advisory
90mph
971mb

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk
 

Going to be a lot of updates the next two days.  

[hawkeye_wx]

Recon just measured 107 kt at flight level east of the center.  The convective ring around the center is really beginning to come together now.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

Recon just measured 107 kt at flight level east of the center.  The convective ring around the center is really beginning to come together now.

Yeah I just got home from work and at the first look of the recon data I said to myself this one is about ready to take off. 

[Prismshine Productions]

I am just waiting that NE-SW run

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[Prismshine Productions]

Really took off on the IR loop over the last hour, ton of lightning too

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[SnowenOutThere]

Looks like it might be primed for RI, I guess we will see throughout the night. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Its good we have recon in the storm as it has the IR uptick to see if it will translate to a stronger storm. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Earl is starting to look formidable. Should be a beaut by this evening 

[NorthHillsWx]

Also- core of Earl just now sliding onto Bermuda radar. Here’s a link for anyone who wants to geek out watching a major on radar later today

http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=250KM SRI (CROPPED)&user=

[Radtechwxman]

Looks like a big slug of dry air just temporarily has disrupted the inner core. Can see it on IR, water vapor, and vis sat. But some deep convection is trying to rewrap around and close out dry air. May halt or slow intensification for a bit but should be off to the races later today into tonight. 

[yoda]

Earl held at 105mph at 11

[yoda]

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

The convective structure of Earl this morning is interesting, with a 
large convective band with cloud tops below -70 C completing one 
full cyclonic orbit around the hurricane. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters 
earlier indicated that the central pressure had fallen from last 
night, with the final reading at 965 mb. However, the 700 mb flight 
level, SFMR, and tail Doppler radar winds have yet to respond to the 
continued falling pressure. Therefore, the wind speed this advisory 
will be held at 90 kt. Of note, the aircraft mission is reporting 
that Earl has a fairly large closed eye , with an estimated 
diameter of 50 n mi. 

Based on the last few center fixes, Earl is starting to make the 
turn to the north-northeast as it gradually accelerates, estimated 
at 030/11 kt. A shortwave trough in the process of moving offshore 
of the Eastern U.S. coastline and this feature, in combination with 
mid-level ridging to the east of Earl, is expected to cause Earl to 
bend further eastward as the flow accelerates. There have been very 
few changes made to the NHC forecast track over the first 24-48 
hours, with Earl expected to pass 75-100 n mi to the southeast of 
Bermuda tonight into tomorrow morning. Shortly after 48 hours, Earl 
will be captured by the digging shortwave trough with model guidance 
indicating it will undergo a warm-seclusion-type extratropical 
transition. This process will also likely result in a substantial 
slow-down in the forward motion between 48-72 hours, and this 
portion of the track forecast has the largest along-track spread, 
related to the degree of phasing between Earl and this trough. 
Thereafter, their combination should begin to move eastward into the 
Atlantic Maritimes by the end of the forecast period, opting to 
favor a blend between the GFS and ECMWF track solutions. 

Per the latest SHIPS guidance, vertical wind shear over Earl is now 
under 10 kt and is forecast to remain that way for the next 24 hours 
as Earl traverses over 29 C sea-surface temperatures. Thus, steady 
intensification is expected, with the assumption that the current 
core structure of Earl fully consolidates and takes advantage of 
this favorable environment. The peak intensity of 115 kt is still 
under the latest LGEM and HCCA guidance. After 36 hours, Earl will 
begin to undergo extratropical transition as the trough interaction 
introduces substantial baroclinicity as vertical wind shear rapidly 
increases. Earl is expected to transition into a powerful 
hurricane-force extratropical low sometime between 48-60 hours, with 
this low filling rather quickly thereafter, in good agreement with 
the intensity consensus aids.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
tropical-storm-force winds are expected on the island this
afternoon through early Friday morning.  Hurricane-force winds are
possible on Bermuda this evening or tonight if Earl's track shifts
farther west than is currently forecast.

2.  Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and are
expected to reach the U.S. East Coast later today and tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through the weekend.  Please consult products
from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 29.0N  65.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 30.7N  64.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 33.5N  61.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 37.0N  57.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 40.9N  53.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 43.6N  49.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/1200Z 44.9N  48.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/1200Z 46.1N  46.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/1200Z 47.1N  40.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

[NorthHillsWx]

It’s going to be tough to get a cat 4 to blossom out of a 50 mi diameter truck tire eye

[Boston Bulldog]

36 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s going to be tough to get a cat 4 to blossom out of a 50 mi diameter truck tire eye

Thinking Earl may peak at a similar intensity to Larry last year given the similarities in the structure of the eye (though far more banding features are present with Earl)

[Boston Bulldog]

Quite the beefy eyewall taking shape on the latest SSMIS microwave imagery

[Radtechwxman]

Definitely think Earl is a major hurricane now. Looks very impressive on satellite imagery. 

[NorthHillsWx]

First true eye of the season popping now. All this talk about “fish storms” and people not caring about it unless it’s hitting a populated coastline and none of them can appreciate a monster storm forming in their backyard basin. Quite sad honestly for people who claim to be interested in severe weather. Oh, and we even have radar to watch this one 
 

Earl may not hit cat 4 (definitely has a chance but will need to tighten up a bit) but it’s about to be a beast of a hurricane. Love watching this sh*t in the Atlantic