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Hurricane Earl


WxWatcher007
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29 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I believe it has been 5 full days since the NHC gave this a 70% chance of development through day 5. I feel like this has to be approaching longest lived cherry and it may never develope

The “A” storm this year was a cherry/PTC for a very long time 

Seasons been a struggle for everything except Danielle 

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie is very weak

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

 Yeah, the 12Z UKMET doesn't have it redevelop into a new TC like the 0Z. although it does keep it as a weak surface low as your image shows. Interestingly, the 12Z is back to being far to the south as opposed to being up into the Bahamas in a recurve position with it now moving due west from 65W to 75W to the N coast of E Cuba at the end of the run (144). This position is similar to the 12Z Wed run's 144 but obviously moving much more slowly since it is near the 144 hour position of the run from 48 hours ago.

 The 12Z 132 hour UKMET position is 100 miles SW of the 0Z 144 and is moving slowly due west as opposed to moving NW like it was on the 0Z run. Of course, with it once again being a SW outlier by several hundred miles again, it could easily be off obviously and that would be the best bet right now. Sometimes the UKMET has a far left bias. We'll see.

 But if it isn't off and if its very weak low stays intact, this is implying it could eventually (say in 8-10+ days) become a Gulf problem.

 

 

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 The 12Z model consensus, including the Euro, says the US is going to be safe from this. This means that the 12Z UKMET moving due west way on down near Cuba is an extreme SW outlier and thus likely wrong like usually is the case when it is a far SW outlier. But if it were to somehow not be wrong, then obviously everything changes and even the Gulf could have a problem. Only a small chance obviously.

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 The 12Z EPS says hold your beer, we can't yet give the all clear to the US as 20% of members do not recurve safely, which is a big increase and is thus the most threatening EPS in a long time. It actually even has about 10% of its members (half the threats) way down SW near the 12Z UKMET!

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Recon confirming that this is now extremely close to being a depression if not already one. Latest center fix puts it closer to the deeper convection.

Still fragile, but likely already a TC imo. 

NHC wants to see this persist per the special discussion and I don’t blame them. Organizational attempts have collapsed numerous times thus far. 

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8 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Just a little note: recon found the center south of 18N while the NHC and all the models had at north of 18N. Wonder if that will change anything. 

Screenshot_20220902-210058_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20220902-210126_Chrome.jpg

 But they also found it ~half a degree to the east. Probably a wash.

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