Hurricane Earl

[shaggy]

12z gfs is a carbon copy on track from its previous runs.

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: 132 hour position is a bit NE of 0Z UKMET at 144; at 144 12Z is at 22.8 N, 65.0 W with NW movement:

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L        ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N  47.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 29.08.2022    0  14.3N  47.2W     1009            26
    0000UTC 30.08.2022   12  14.2N  48.7W     1010            26
    1200UTC 30.08.2022   24  14.9N  48.8W     1009            25
    0000UTC 31.08.2022   36  15.3N  49.9W     1008            24
    1200UTC 31.08.2022   48  15.7N  50.9W     1008            26
    0000UTC 01.09.2022   60  16.5N  51.8W     1008            26
    1200UTC 01.09.2022   72  17.1N  53.7W     1007            28
    0000UTC 02.09.2022   84  18.1N  55.2W     1006            28
    1200UTC 02.09.2022   96  19.3N  58.1W     1006            36
    0000UTC 03.09.2022  108  19.7N  59.7W     1006            38
    1200UTC 03.09.2022  120  20.7N  61.7W     1007            38
    0000UTC 04.09.2022  132  21.4N  63.3W     1006            34
    1200UTC 04.09.2022  144  22.8N  65.0W     1006            36

 The 12Z ICON at 168 is quite a bit east of the 0Z ICON at 180, a sign of reduced threat from that model at least for now. Since the ICON had been showing about the most dangerous looking solutions for the US, this 12Z run shift is very good news, especially for FL.

 The 12Z GFS and CMC remain safely away from the US, but they both continue to threaten Bermuda.

 The consensus of non-Euro 12Z models is thankfully to stay safely away from the US but that could change over the next few days if movement is further west than models  are showing. Thus, it is still too early to make a call with high confidence, especially since there's still no TC center to track and the system remains messy, even though the model trends are clearly good news for now for the US though not for Bermuda.

[hawkeye_wx]

Models are in pretty good agreement that Thursday may be the day this system gets going, once the upper low to its north lifts out.  The weather pattern over North America, with ridging over the central/western US and troughing over the east and into the western Atlantic, does not appear favorable for any hurricane landfall.

[Superstorm93]

 

 

[Rhino16]

27 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

 

 

If it were to stay a sheared mess for a longer period, does that make it less likely to recurve out to sea?

[shaggy]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

12Z UKMET: 132 hour position is a bit NE of 0Z UKMET at 144; at 144 12Z is at 22.8 N, 65.0 W with NW movement:

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L        ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N  47.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 29.08.2022    0  14.3N  47.2W     1009            26
    0000UTC 30.08.2022   12  14.2N  48.7W     1010            26
    1200UTC 30.08.2022   24  14.9N  48.8W     1009            25
    0000UTC 31.08.2022   36  15.3N  49.9W     1008            24
    1200UTC 31.08.2022   48  15.7N  50.9W     1008            26
    0000UTC 01.09.2022   60  16.5N  51.8W     1008            26
    1200UTC 01.09.2022   72  17.1N  53.7W     1007            28
    0000UTC 02.09.2022   84  18.1N  55.2W     1006            28
    1200UTC 02.09.2022   96  19.3N  58.1W     1006            36
    0000UTC 03.09.2022  108  19.7N  59.7W     1006            38
    1200UTC 03.09.2022  120  20.7N  61.7W     1007            38
    0000UTC 04.09.2022  132  21.4N  63.3W     1006            34
    1200UTC 04.09.2022  144  22.8N  65.0W     1006            36

 The 12Z ICON at 168 is quite a bit east of the 0Z ICON at 180, a sign of reduced threat from that model at least for now. Since the ICON had been showing about the most dangerous looking solutions for the US, this 12Z run shift is very good news, especially for FL.

 The 12Z GFS and CMC remain safely away from the US, but they both continue to threaten Bermuda.

 The consensus of non-Euro 12Z models is thankfully to stay safely away from the US but that could change over the next few days if movement is further west than models  are showing. Thus, it is still too early to make a call with high confidence, especially since there's still no TC center to track and the system remains messy, even though the model trends are clearly good news for now for the US though not for Bermuda.

Still a long ways to go on this one but the overall model trend has been towards a far less threatening scenario than the first series of runs a few days ago.

[Superstorm93]

Another interesting development

We could be tracking sheared trash into September

 

  

[Superstorm93]

1 hour ago, Rhino16 said:

If it were to stay a sheared mess for a longer period, does that make it less likely to recurve out to sea?

 

I'd be inclined to say that this has a low risk of impacting the CONUS over the next week or so. 

Significant development of this wave has become increasingly unlikely over the past few runs. 

[shaggy]

4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Another interesting development

We could be tracking sheared trash into September

 

  

In all honesty we need a quiet season after the last several years.

[Superstorm93]

[Superstorm93]

5 minutes ago, shaggy said:

In all honesty we need a quiet season after the last several years.

I'd love to break some records on the quiet side for once. It's been an exhausting six years. 

[shaggy]

@GaWx I notice a slight increase in western tracks for the gefs at 18z. They still miss but that sort of adds a slight hesitation of a full write off of this system. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, shaggy said:

@GaWx I notice a slight increase in western tracks for the gefs at 18z. They still miss but that sort of adds a slight hesitation of a full write off of this system. 

 Yeah, I see that whereas the 18Z GEFS avoids FL, it did bring a few members closer to NC north. Regardless, yes, it is still too early to assume anywhere near safe OTS from the US despite trends in that direction vs the prior few days since there's still no TC/tight center to track. If the southern part of the were to take over,  then all bets might be off because it may then head to Cuba, which could then turn right into FL or other areas.

[WxWatcher007]

8 hours ago, Superstorm93 said:

I'd love to break some records on the quiet side for once. It's been an exhausting six years. 

What I find most interesting is that virtually all the basins have been extraordinarily quiet or had long stretches of quiet. 

[WxWatcher007]

For whatever it’s worth, not a whole hell of a lot at this stage probably, there’s some deep and fairly persistent convection over the southern lobe of the elongated low.

This is where recon found a semblance of a mid-level feature earlier. Not sure what’s happening under the hood but if it doesn’t get gutted by dry air it could help with organization by persisting overnight.

Further south may be better for quicker development odds but dry air is everywhere. Crazy.

[GaWx]

  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.08.2022

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L        ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N  48.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 30.08.2022    0  14.2N  48.0W     1009            25
    1200UTC 30.08.2022   12  14.8N  48.7W     1009            24
    0000UTC 31.08.2022   24  15.4N  49.6W     1008            23
    1200UTC 31.08.2022   36  15.8N  50.6W     1008            26
    0000UTC 01.09.2022   48  16.7N  51.6W     1008            25
    1200UTC 01.09.2022   60  17.8N  53.4W     1007            27
    0000UTC 02.09.2022   72  18.7N  54.7W     1007            28
    1200UTC 02.09.2022   84  19.9N  57.7W     1006            36
    0000UTC 03.09.2022   96  20.0N  59.5W     1007            35
    1200UTC 03.09.2022  108  20.4N  61.6W     1008            31
    0000UTC 04.09.2022  120  20.5N  63.4W     1008            29
    1200UTC 04.09.2022  132  21.4N  65.0W     1009            28
    0000UTC 05.09.2022  144  22.0N  67.3W     1008            27

 

[LoboLeader1]

Looks like the home team pitched a shutout in the 1st half of this so called active year.

"Atlantic is most rambunctious from about Aug. 20 to Oct. 1, with the statistical peak coming on Sept. 10. Most pre-season forecasts called for an active year with more than the average of 14 storms."

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Looks like the home team pitched a shutout in the 1st half of this so called active year.

"Atlantic is most rambunctious from about Aug. 20 to Oct. 1, with the statistical peak coming on Sept. 10. Most pre-season forecasts called for an active year with more than the average of 14 storms."

A certain poster can take his/her victory lap tomorrow about calling for a 0-0-0 August in a season that featured dire forecasts. If you say the same thing every year, I guess you can be right once every 25 years (last time we were blanked in August). We will not get blanked in September, that’s a certainty. 

[WxWatcher007]

Good convective bursts continue with 91L, but it's easily apparent that it's still a disorganized mess. 

[Windspeed]

Good convective bursts continue with 91L, but it's easily apparent that it's still a disorganized mess. 

A potential effect of the monsoonal depression persisting over the same location for so long is that the elongated surface gyre with multiple MCSs is likely cooling SSTs a degree or two to that central and significant location of the MDR. Though 91L may eventually go on to organize into a TC and move on into the Western or Northwestern Atlantic basin, such a long duration broad convectively active gyre may leave a large area of sub 28° SSTs for systems that traverse that locale down the road. Though it's still warm early September in the tropics so that should rebound some.

[NorthHillsWx]

22 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

38 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Good convective bursts continue with 91L, but it's easily apparent that it's still a disorganized mess. 

A potential effect of the monsoonal depression persisting over the same location for so long is that the elongated surface gyre with multiple MCSs is likely cooling SSTs a degree or two to that central and significant location of the MDR. Though 91L may eventually go on to organize into a TC and move on into the Western or Northwestern Atlantic basin, such a long duration broad convectively active gyre may leave a large area of sub 28° SSTs for systems that traverse that locale down the road. Though it's still warm early September in the tropics so that should rebound some.

Fitting for 2022. Our lone NS makes it even harder to get anything else bc it sat over the MDR as a disorganized mess too long. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Good convective bursts continue with 91L, but it's easily apparent that it's still a disorganized mess. 

A potential effect of the monsoonal depression persisting over the same location for so long is that the elongated surface gyre with multiple MCSs is likely cooling SSTs a degree or two to that central and significant location of the MDR. Though 91L may eventually go on to organize into a TC and move on into the Western or Northwestern Atlantic basin, such a long duration broad convectively active gyre may leave a large area of sub 28° SSTs for systems that traverse that locale down the road. Though it's still warm early September in the tropics so that should rebound some.

My forecast is in trouble. The basin is a disaster. I’m going to need late September and October to produce. 

Rough season for this tropical weenie.  

[Windspeed]

My forecast is in trouble. The basin is a disaster. I’m going to need late September and October to produce. 
Rough season for this tropical weenie.  

We've had something like 8 or 9 active to hyperactive years in a row. Without the ridiculous subtropical wave breaking persisting abnormally long into the ASO this year, the general consensus would have most likely been correct. That is it was supposed to be active and even hyperactive. We've also got 8 more weeks to play with. But I wouldn't sweat it.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I wanted to experience a rig evacuation because of a storm during the ~ year I lived in Louisiana in 1997 (and part of 1998).  I was working on a land rig near Cameron when Danny developed.  This is like 1997.  Although I see no reason a Caribbean to Eastern GOMEX storm or two in October won't happen.

[Windspeed]

Here is a recent ASCAT that puts perspective on how large and elongated the broad SW to NE oriented gyre remains for 91L. Point of TCG is very much still an uncertainty as it's too chaotic for any global to simulate with a high degree of accuracy which blob becomes dominate. So I would continue taking track resolutions with a grain of salt until we have a specific tighter low level vorticiy maximum organize and track/model.
Admittedly, the northeastern most MCS is looking better at the moment. But it needs that SW MCS to die out to counter the continued elongation of the surface trough.

[NorthHillsWx]

11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

My forecast is in trouble. The basin is a disaster. I’m going to need late September and October to produce. 
Rough season for this tropical weenie.  

We've had something like 8 or 9 active to hyperactive years in a row. Without the ridiculous subtropical wave breaking persisting abnormally long into the ASO this year, the general consensus would have most likely been correct. That is it was supposed to be active and even hyperactive. We've also got 8 more weeks to play with. But I wouldn't sweat it.

The subtropical wave breaking and its effect on shear and allowing dry air to persist has certainly shut down the MDR, but the complete lack of any activity in the GOM, western Caribbean, and SW Atlantic is absolutely shocking to me. We’ve had slow MDR seasons that featured AN activity overall bc these other parts of the basin remained highly active. In a 3rd year La Niña climo highly favors these areas for development as well. The fact the ENTIRE basin is shut down and has been the entire season (all 3 storms struggled more than forecast and Collin was, well, kinda a name wasting joke) is what’s perplexing to me. Also, the 2 year downturn of global cyclone activity in defiance of numerous forecasts also says there may be other factors at play in the northern hemisphere affecting tropical cyclone genesis and overall conditions for tropical systems to reach higher intensity. I’m sure this period will be studied for future analogs outside of each basin’s own activity 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I wanted to experience a rig evacuation because of a storm during the ~ year I lived in Louisiana in 1997 (and part of 1998).  I was working on a land rig near Cameron when Danny developed.  This is like 1997.  Although I see no reason a Caribbean to Eastern GOMEX storm or two in October won't happen.

I think it was Hurricane Danny that came right into Mobile Bay in July of 1997...only a cat 1, but was a decent little event.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z UKMET is a bit SW of its 0Z position as of hour 96, when it is at 19.3N, 62.4W. This compares to the 0Z UKMET at 108, when it was 20.4N, 61.6W. 

 Then the 12Z UKMET at hour 108 "ceases tracking" it as a TC:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L        ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N  48.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 30.08.2022    0  14.8N  48.3W     1009            25
    0000UTC 31.08.2022   12  15.6N  49.4W     1009            24
    1200UTC 31.08.2022   24  15.8N  50.6W     1008            26
    0000UTC 01.09.2022   36  16.3N  51.8W     1008            25
    1200UTC 01.09.2022   48  17.5N  53.9W     1007            27
    0000UTC 02.09.2022   60  18.0N  55.8W     1007            28
    1200UTC 02.09.2022   72  18.9N  57.9W     1007            31
    0000UTC 03.09.2022   84  19.1N  60.5W     1008            31
    1200UTC 03.09.2022   96  19.3N  62.4W     1009            29
    0000UTC 04.09.2022  108              CEASED TRACKING

 Then, it brings it back at hour 138 as a "New tropical cyclone" when it has it at 21.0N, 70.1W, moving WNW, which is quite a bit WSW of the 0Z run's position for then:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 21.0N  70.1W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 05.09.2022  144  21.6N  71.3W     1010            24

 

 So, the actual 18Z position of today, which is 14.8N, 49.1W, compares to these two points in the 12Z UKMET, which are for both 6 hours earlier and 6 hours later:

1200UTC 30.08.2022    0  14.8N  48.3W     1009            25
    0000UTC 31.08.2022   12  15.6N  49.4W     1009            24

 Using interpolation, the actual 18Z position is 0.4 S and 0.25 W of the 12Z UKMET 18Z forecast point, which is ~45 miles SSW of the 12Z UKMET estimated position.

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, Windspeed said:

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

My forecast is in trouble. The basin is a disaster. I’m going to need late September and October to produce. 
Rough season for this tropical weenie.  

We've had something like 8 or 9 active to hyperactive years in a row. Without the ridiculous subtropical wave breaking persisting abnormally long into the ASO this year, the general consensus would have most likely been correct. That is it was supposed to be active and even hyperactive. We've also got 8 more weeks to play with. But I wouldn't sweat it.

I agree. The wave breaking has been lethal so far this year. If I bust on the forecast it is what it is, but you're right about having more time. I have to imagine that things open up more by the latter half of September and that homebrew season in October will produce. 

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The subtropical wave breaking and its effect on shear and allowing dry air to persist has certainly shut down the MDR, but the complete lack of any activity in the GOM, western Caribbean, and SW Atlantic is absolutely shocking to me. We’ve had slow MDR seasons that featured AN activity overall bc these other parts of the basin remained highly active. In a 3rd year La Niña climo highly favors these areas for development as well. The fact the ENTIRE basin is shut down and has been the entire season (all 3 storms struggled more than forecast and Collin was, well, kinda a name wasting joke) is what’s perplexing to me. Also, the 2 year downturn of global cyclone activity in defiance of numerous forecasts also says there may be other factors at play in the northern hemisphere affecting tropical cyclone genesis and overall conditions for tropical systems to reach higher intensity. I’m sure this period will be studied for future analogs outside of each basin’s own activity 

Agree--it's pretty crazy to know that we're really in 2013 (or worse) territory looking at the basin. I think the lack of activity in the western Atlantic is a function of waves being annihilated before even getting that far. Usually we have at least a couple trackable waves that get to the western end. The Caribbean one for example looked relatively good before running into the wood chipper. This season just ain't it right now. That said, things can change as climo shifts westward and you don't need those waves to be the seedlings. 

[Normandy]

LOL there is an eye feature on this spinning anti-cyclonically.  That is soooooo 2022