September 2022 temperature forecast contest _ final results of seasonal max contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg relative to 1991-2020) for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Deadline for on-time entries will be 06z Thursday September 1st. 

Thanks for entering. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

DCA +4 NYC +4 BOS +3.5 ORD +3.5 ATL +3.5 IAH +3.5 DEN +3 PHX +2.5 SEA -1

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA:  +1.7

NYC:  +2.1

BOS:  +2.5

ORD:  +0.7

ATL:  +0.3

IAH:  +0.9

DEN:  +1.9

PHX:  +1.3

SEA:  +0.2

[Tom]

DCA:  +2.1

NYC:  +2.2

BOS:  +2.1

ORD:  +1.1

ATL:  +0.4

IAH:  +0.6

DEN:  +1.4

PHX:  +0.5

SEA:  +0.1

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0      1.0       1.0         1.0      1.5      1.5      1.0       1.5       0.5

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+1.4    +1.5   +2.1      +1.7   +0.7    +0.6      +1.2    +0.7    +2.5

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+2.8    +3.0   +3.2     +1.8   +2.6    -1.0      +1.2    +2.6   +2.4

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.1       1.5       2.0       1.2       1.2     0.2       1.3       2.0     1.8

[Roger Smith]

+2.0 _ +2.5 _ +3.0 __ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.8 __ +3.5 _ +1.5 _ +3.0

[Rjay]

DCA:  +2.7

NYC:  +3.0

BOS:  +2.2

ORD:  +1.5

ATL:  -1.0

IAH:  -1.5

DEN:  +1.5

PHX:  +0.5

SEA:  +4.0

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0       1.3       1.3        0.5    -0.6   -0.6       3.1       0.8      1.0

[bkviking]

DCA:  +2.0

NYC:  +2.2

BOS:  +2.2

ORD:  +1.2

ATL:  -0.7

IAH:  -0.9

DEN:  +1.9

PHX:  +0.7

SEA:  +3.0

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +1.3

NYC:  +1.5

BOS:  +1.7

ORD:  +0.8

ATL:  +0.2

IAH:  -0.2

DEN:  +1.7

PHX:  +1.1

SEA:  +1.4

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for September 2022

 

FORECASTER ________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

Stormchaser Chuck __________+4.0 _+4.0 _+3.5 __ +3.5 _+3.5 _+3.5 __ +3.0 _+2.5 _ -1.0

wxallannj _____________________+2.8 _+3.0 _+3.2 __ +1.8 _+2.6 _ -1.0 ___ +1.2 _+2.6 _+2.4

RJay _________________________ +2.7 _+3.0 _+2.2 __ +1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.5 ___ +1.5 _+0.5 _+4.0

Tom __________________________+2.1 _+2.2 _ +2.1 __ +1.1 __ +0.4 _+0.6 __ +1.4 _+0.5 _+0.1

Roger Smith _________________ +2.0 _+2.5 _ +3.0 __ +2.5 _+1.5 _+0.8 __ +3.5 _+1.5 _+3.0

BKViking _____________________ +2.0 _+2.2 _+2.2 __ +1.2 _ -0.7 _ -0.9 __ +1.9 _+0.7 _+3.0

___ Consensus _______________ +1.9 _ +2.2 _+2.2 __ +1.2 _+0.6 _+0.4 __ +1.6 _+1.2 _+1.6 

hudsonvalley21 ______________ +1.7 _+2.1 _ +2.5 __ +0.7 _ +0.3 _+0.9 __ +1.9 _+1.3 _+0.2

so_whats_happening _________+1.4 _+1.5 _ +2.1 ___ +1.7 _+0.7 _+0.6 __ +1.2 _+0.7 _+2.5

wxdude64 ____________________+1.3 _+1.5 _ +1.7 __ +0.8 _ +0.2 _ -0.2 __ +1.7 _+1.1 _+1.4

DonSutherland1 ______________ +1.1 _+1.5 _ +2.0 __ +1.2 _ +1.2 _ +0.2 __ +1.3 _+2.0 _+1.8

RodneyS ______________________+1.0 _+1.3 _ +1.3 __ +0.5 _ -0.6 _ -0.6 __ +3.1 _+0.8 _+1.0

Scotty Lightning ______________+1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5

___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0

__________________________________________________

 

Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded. Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA,NYC,BOS,ORD,DEN,PHX

[Roger Smith]

Seasonal Max update _ final standings

This may be the final report on the seasonal max contest but will continue to monitor reports to end of September.

RJay leads by six over three other forecasters. 

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ Total dep

 

RJay ______________________ 102 ___99 ___ 99 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 105 __ 101 _ 119 __ 95 _____ 11

___ Consensus (means) ____101 __100 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 101 _ 105 __ 100 _ 119 __ 93 _____ 16

DonSutherland1 __________ 104 __ 100 __ 101 ___100 ___ 99 _ 105 __ 100 _ 118 __ 92 ____ 17

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 101 __ 100 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 106 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 93 ____ 17

BKViking __________________ 100 ___99 ___ 97 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 101 __ 100 _ 119 __ 94 ____ 17

wxdude64 ________________ 102 ___99 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 101 _ 106 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 93 ____ 18

RodneyS ___________________ 98 ___98 ___ 97 ___ 97 __ 100 _ 102 __ 102 _ 119 __ 93 ____ 18

so_whats_happening _____ 102 __ 101 ___ 99 ___ 97 __ 100 _ 102 __ 103 _ 121 __ 93 ____ 24

wxallannj ___________________98 ___97 ___ 96 ___ 97 ___ 98 _ 100 ___ 96 _ 118 __ 92 ____ 24

Tom ________________________ 99 ___99 ___ 97 ___102 __ 102 _ 107 ___ 97 _ 121 __ 97 ____ 25

Roger Smith ______________ 104 __ 103 __ 101 ___ 98 __ 102 _ 108 __ 105 _ 119 __ 95 ____ 27

Scotty Lightning __________ 104 __101 ___ 99 ____ 97 __ 105 _ 110 ___ 97 _ 121 __ 90 ____ 38

___ to Sep 30 _______________ 99 __ 97 __100 _____ 99 __ 99 __105 _____101 _ 115 _ 95

 

==============================

 

Tracking September anomalies and projections ...

___________________________  DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

11th __ (anom 10d) ________+1.9 _ +1.3 _ -1.5 __ +3.4 _ +0.2 _ -1.1 ___ +5.5 __+3.0 __+2.3

21st __ (anom 20d) ________+1.9 _ +1.9 __ 0.0 __ +3.5 __0.0 _ -0.1 ___ +4.7 __ +1.0 __+1.7

 

11th __ (p anom 20d) _____ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ -1.0 __ +2.0 __ 0.0 _ -1.0 ___ +3.0 __+2.5 __+2.0

11th __ (p anom 27d) _____ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ -0.5 __ +1.5 __ 0.0 _ -0.5 ___ +2.5 __+2.0 _ +2.0

 

21st __ (p anom 30d) _____ +0.5 _ +0.5 _ -0.5 __ +2.0 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 ___ +3.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.5

1st __ final anoms _________+0.3 _ +0.3 _ -0.4 __ +1.1 __ -0.3 _ +0.2 ___ +4.2 _ +1.9 _ +2.2

 

21st _ Month looks likely to end just above 91-20 normal values in northeast and southeast (exc BOS), staying rather warm in western regions. 

1st Oct _ Final anomalies posted, scoring will soon be updated. 

[Roger Smith]

Final scores for September 2022

These scores are based on end of month anomalies listed in the previous post above. .

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTALS

RodneyS ______________________86 _ 80 _ 66 __ 232 __ 88 _ 94_ 84 __ 266__ 498 __ 78 _ 78 _ 76 __ 232 ____ 730

DonSutherland1 ______________ 84 _ 76 _ 52 __ 212 __ 98 _ 70 _100 __ 268__ 480 __ 42 _ 98 _ 92 __ 232 ____ 712

wxdude64 ____________________80 _ 76 _ 58 __ 214 __ 94 _ 90 _ 92 __ 276 __ 490 __ 50 _ 84 _ 84 __ 218 ____ 708

___ Normal ____________________94 _ 94 _ 92__ 280 __ 78 _ 94 _ 96 __ 268__ 548 __ 16 _ 62 _ 56 __ 134 ____ 682

 

___ Consensus _______________ 68 _ 62 _ 48 __ 178 __ 98 _ 82 _ 96 __ 276 __ 454 __ 48 _ 86 _ 88 __ 222 ____ 676 

so_whats_happening _________78 _ 76 _ 50 __ 204 __ 88 _ 80 _ 92 __ 260 __ 464 __ 40 _ 76 _ 94__ 210 ____ 674

Scotty Lightning ______________86 _ 86 _72 __ 244 __ 98 _ 64 _ 74 __ 236 __ 480 __ 36 _ 92 _ 64 __192 ____ 672

BKViking _____________________ 66 _ 62 _ 48 __ 176 __ 98 _ 92 _ 78 __ 268 __ 444 __ 54 _ 76 _ 84 __ 214 ____ 658

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 72 _ 64 _ 42 __ 178 __ 92 _ 88 _ 86 __ 266 __ 444 __ 54 _ 88 _ 60 __ 202 ____ 646

Roger Smith __________________66 _ 56 _ 32 __ 154 __ 72 _ 64 _ 88 __ 224 __ 378 __ 86 _ 92 _ 84 __ 262 ____ 640

Tom _________________________ 64 _ 66 _ 50 __ 180 __100 _ 86 _ 92 __ 278 __ 458 __ 44 _ 72 _ 58 __ 174 ____ 632

RJay __________________________52 _ 46 _ 48 __ 146 __ 92 _ 86 _ 66 __ 244 __ 390 __ 46 _ 72 _ 76 __ 194 ____ 584

wxallannj _____________________ 50 _ 46 _ 28 __ 124 __ 86 _ 42 _ 76 __ 204 __ 328 __ 40 _ 86 _ 96 __ 222 ____ 550

Stormchaser Chuck __________ 26 _ 26 _ 22 __ 074 __ 52 _ 24 _ 34 __ 110 ___ 184 __ 76 _ 88 _ 36__ 200 ____ 384

_______________________________________________

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT 

 

DCA, NYC, BOS _ Scotty Lightning takes three wins here, tied with RodneyS for DCA, and Normal also has three wins.

ORD did not qualify as highest scores were near consensus.  

ATL did not qualify as third coldest forecast had high score.

IAH also did not qualify as highest scores were near consensus. 

DEN is a win for Roger Smith with warmest forecast. 

PHX did not qualify with third warmest forecast at high score.

SEA did not qualify with fifth warmest forecast at high score.  

[Roger Smith]

===<<< __________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan - Sep 2022) _____________>>>===

Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type.

Despite fairly close scoring in September, RodneyS managed to move into third place ahead of so_whats_happening who is now fourth, and RodneyS also passed Consensus which is now a rank lower (between third and fourth).  Tom is fifth and Hudsonvalley21 moves into sixth ahead of wxallannj who is now seventh; BKViking moved closer to the seventh position but remains 8th. Normal remains between 10th and 11th and Stormchaser Chuck's prorated score has dropped from equivalent to 8th to 10th (still ahead of me but now also behind Normal). 

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL

 

wxdude64 ______________633 _657 _647 __1937 __649 _679_ 548__1876_3813 __606 _716 _577 __1899 ____5712

DonSutherland1 ________ 718 _664 _624__2006__678 _610 _472__1760 _3766 __522 _746 _650 __1918 ____5684

RodneyS ________________ 654 _592 _558__1804__534 _720 _566__1820 _3624 __690 _732 _622__2044____5668

___ Consensus ___________642 _646 _598 __1886__622 _652 _504__1778 _3664__632 _722 _627 __1981 ____5645

so_whats_happening ____610 _630 _634__1874__621 _654_ 504__1779 _ 3653 __ 588 _712 _670 __1970 ____5623

Tom _____________________ 635 _653 _573 __1861__622 _631 _615__1868 _3729 __643 _619 _530 __ 1792 ____5521

hudsonvalley21 __________606 _650 _612 __1868__594 _612 _494__1700 _3568__576 _708 _562 __ 1846 ____5414

wxallannj ________________558 _578 _552 __1688 __576 _560 _506__1642 _3330 __686 _690 _662 __2038____5368

BKViking ________________ 632 _640 _578 __1850__554 _588 _458__1600 _3450 __650 _658 _598 __1906 ____5356

RJay _____________________588 _652 _636 __1876__569 _602 _460__1631 _3507 __620 _564 _565 __1749 ____5256

Scotty Lightning _________632 _620 _582 __1834 __568 _596 _524__1688 _3522 __548 _686 _484__1718____5240

_____ Normal _____________662 _596 _532 __1790 __562 _628 _516 __1706 _ 3496 __502 _610 _512__1624____5120

Roger Smith _____________ 540 _488 _366 __1394 __476 _500 _466 __1442 _2836 __668 _692 _657__2017____4853

Stormchaser Chuck (6/9)_360 _400 _389 __1149 __350 _ 438 _282 _1070 _2219 __380 _461 _291 __1132____3351

__ __ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 5026 total points. 

=========================================

__ Best Forecasts __ 

* tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). 

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total

wxdude64 _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 __ Jan

DonSutherland1 __________4*^__ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____3 ____1 ____2 __ Feb,May

RodneyS _________________ 2**__ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 2 ___3 ___ 2___ 2*___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ____ 1 __ Sep

___ Consensus ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0

so_whats_happening _____ 1*___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*____ 1 __ Jul

Tom ______________________ 1^___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar

hudsonvalley21 __________ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*____ 0

wxallannj ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 2 ____ 0

BKViking _________________ 2^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

RJay ______________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 2*____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Apr

Scotty Lightning __________ 2**__ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

___ Normal ________________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0

Roger Smith _______________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1*____2 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 5*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 4 ____ 2 __Jun, Aug

Stormchaser Chuck _______ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2*____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ____ 0

=========================

EXTREME FORECAST SCORING 

(second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred twelve times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr, once for DEN in May and again Aug, once for BOS in June, once for SEA in June, once for DCA in July and also Aug and Sep, once for BOS in July and once for ORD in July and again Aug.) Normal could also be tied for extreme forecast wins but this is not tracked.

(in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total).

(wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN)

So far, 59 of 81 forecasts qualify, 25 warmest and 34 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2, June 3-4, July 4-3, Aug 4-5, Sep 1-3. 

 

FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_ Jul _Aug _ Sep _TOTAL (adj for ties)

 

Roger Smith _____________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ ---_ 4**0 _ 0-3 _3**0 _1-0 __ 16-5 (14-5)

RodneyS _________________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2*-0_ 1*-0 _2*-0_3-2 _1*0 ___10-2 (8.0 -2)

DonSutherland1 _________ --- _ 4*-0_ 1^-0_1-0_ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- ___ 9-0 (7.25 - 0)

____ Normal ______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 _ _ 1-1 _ 1-0 _ 3-0 __ 9-1

Stormchaser Chuck ______ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 _2-0 _1*-0 _ --- _ --- ___ 8-1 (7.5 - 1)

Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2^-0_1-0_ 1*-0_ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 6-0 (4.75 - 0)

RJay _____________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ 1*-0_--- _ ---- _ 3*-0 _ 1-1_ --- __ 6-1 (4.25 - 1)

wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3*-0_ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _--- _ --- __ 5-0 (4.0 - 0)

Scotty Lightning _________ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 2**0_ 3*0 _ 5-0 (3.5 - 0)

so_whats_happening ____ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 1*-0 _--- __ 3-0 (2.5 - 0)

hudsonvalley21 ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ 1*-1 _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _ 1-0 _ --- __ 3-1 (2.0 - 1)

wxallannj _________________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ ---- _ --- _ 1*-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-1 _ --- __3-2 (2.0 -1)

BKViking _________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ --- __ --- __ 1-0 (0.25 - 0)

===============================

(Normal is not considered for ties and can score a loss when 0.0 is between a win and a loss, but not when 0.0 is lower than a winning low forecast)

[Roger Smith]

If you scroll back to the post before the scoring updates, you'll find the final scoring results for the 2022 Seasonal Max contest. 

Congrats RJay who won with a total of just 11 error points for the nine locations. 

[so_whats_happening]

Congrats RJay!

[Roger Smith]

The annual conttest is very close this year.