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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2022 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

18z GFS pushes the good pattern out into January possibly, says AccuWeather you guys genius lol

 

18z GFS is a complete dumpster fire with blocking with no cold air.  Two lows get blocked off the Jersey shore which would be great if only there was cold air these are our new times. The warm oceans rule!

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15 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

18z GFS is a complete dumpster fire with blocking with no cold air.  Two lows get blocked off the Jersey shore which would be great if only there was cold air these are our new times. The warm oceans rule!

Well remember that everything is pushed a couple months later.  So spring is the new winter.  You'll see the verification in March. :lol:

Cold front did start advecting cooler and drier air in.  Currently down to 50 with dp 39.

temp-dp-humidty-735p,-12032022.PNG

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56 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

18z GFS is a complete dumpster fire with blocking with no cold air.  Two lows get blocked off the Jersey shore which would be great if only there was cold air these are our new times. The warm oceans rule!

PNA is negative phase. Needs to move towards neutral or positive to counter the huge NAO block and allow for CAA and not stale cold. This could work in Jan/Feb but not early/mid Dec. Sst's in the Atlantic dont help but less of an influence than having a cold air source via the PNA+

Eta: also, this is an op at range. Better off using the ens means imho

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After yesterday's balmy temps and rain we are back to below normal temps but sunny skies for both today and tomorrow. We then warm back up to above normal before potentially cooling down and even a model shows some significant snow in Chester County by week's end. That said there is only one model "The European" that shows any such event. No one should take that as a forecast...just a period to keep an eye on. As I mentioned earlier with the change to more consistent colder weather expect to hear of snow or rumor of snows between now and the end of the month.
Our record high for today is 71 degrees from 1998. The record low is 6 above zero from 1940. The daily rain record is 1.54" from 1900. The daily snow record is 10.0" from today in 1957.image.png.a7060285ca1ba6ba33d2b163308dbfaa.png
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Looks like the Euro out on it's own with our first significant model snow event of the season for parts of our area. Of course as we all know we don't shovel model snow...this will likely be gone by the 12z run. Start adding these up for the season....vs true shoveling or plowing!!

image.png.6ee12f40290d92530bd84e528a782286.png

 

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57 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Looks like the Euro out on it's own with our first significant model snow event of the season for parts of our area. Of course as we all know we don't shovel model snow...this will likely be gone by the 12z run. Start adding these up for the season....vs true shoveling or plowing!!

image.png.6ee12f40290d92530bd84e528a782286.png

 

GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits

 

Maybe the 0z run of the GFS last night is just a week too late?

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