Birds~69 Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 4 hours ago, JTA66 said: I think the next 2-3 weeks will tell us a lot about the upcoming winter. Will the winter-type pattern being advertised move up in time and occur, or will this be another season of chasing unicorns in the LR? Your guess is as good as mine. Rain has started. Maybe some thunder in parts of DE and SNJ? Too early for the Wiggum rule?? 46F Yep. Wish there was a game on tonight. Crappy out there. I could really go for a Birds game tonight and a wind blown trashcan to nail me in the head...oh snap! 47F/shower/gloomy as hell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 16 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Yep. Wish there was a game on tonight. Crappy out there. I could really go for a Birds game tonight and a wind blown trashcan to nail me in the head...oh snap! 47F/shower/gloomy as hell Off topic: I really hope the Eagles dont play down to GB. Need a complete effort. Rodgers can still steal a game from a snoozing defense. Dont think that will happen, but this game has trap written all over it imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Off topic: I really hope the Eagles dont play down to GB. Need a complete effort. Rodgers can still steal a game from a snoozing defense. Dont think that will happen, but this game has trap written all over it imo. No doubt. My game plan: I would run the hell outta the ball w/the weather and keep Rodgers off the field. With our offensive line, defense and at home it should be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 9 hours ago, Birds~69 said: No doubt. My game plan: I would run the hell outta the ball w/the weather and keep Rodgers off the field. With our offensive line, defense and at home it should be enough. Nick must have read my post....D needs to tighten up though. 49F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 6 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Nick must have read my post....D needs to tighten up though. 49F Over/under on how many yards Derrick Henry rushes for next week...300?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 We picked up 0.51" of rain yesterday. A cold front crossed the county this morning and we have already seen our high temperature for today at 51.0 at 3:10am. Temps have slowly fallen since sunrise and should steady off in the mid to upper 40's for the rest of today before falling below freezing by tomorrow morning. Shower chances increase again on Wednesday - it will also be our warmest day of the week with temps in the mid-50's. A return to below normal temps will close out the week. The record high for today is 68.5 from 2011. Our record low is 13.0 set in 1955. The daily rain record is 2.01" from 1993. Record snow is the 2.4" that fell back in 1917. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 51 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Over/under on how many yards Derrick Henry rushes for next week...300?? If you have the cash take the over. His O/U line has been hanging around 100yrds/game. Only gained 38yrds yesterday but he'll rebound and probably in a big way to our dismay... Showers this morning/then sunny, now cloudy again, 51F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 28, 2022 Author Share Posted November 28, 2022 Picked up 0.51" of rain for the day yesterday. Current temp 49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 Not much on the horizon, quiet times it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Not much on the horizon, quiet times it seems. Not snow but Wed rain? Tornadoes S/SW? Not as exciting as snow but something I guess...reaching for straws. 41F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 Lows this morning were in the frosty upper 20's in the lower spots across the valley with low 30's on the higher ridges. A nice day on tap with temps a little below normal highs for today. Tomorrow looks quite stormy as our active weather pattern continues. Warm with showers and very windy tomorrow with some wind gusts of up to 40 mph possible. Much colder again by Thursday and Friday with below normal temps. There is a small chance of showers on Saturday with maybe some wintry mixed precipitation by Sunday evening across the County. The record high for today is 68 degrees set back in 1991. Our record low is the 10 degree reading from 1930. Daily rain record is 2.84" from 1987. Daily snow record is 3.7" from 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 October 2022 was the coldest October in 16 years dating back to 2006 for the Northern Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast USA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 Some updated OBS and a couple links for winter progs by an EU site I like to read as they monitor SSWs. Sunday's high/low were 59/40, where the high didn't come until almost 6:30 pm after 0.43" of rain. Monday's high/low were 56/39 with quite a bit of changeable skies but mostly on the cloudy side. The breezes finally went calm long enough to drop the temp this morning to my low of 31 and there was definitely frost out there with a dp of 30 at that time. The breeze has picked up again and it's currently partly cloudy and 40 with dp 31. This is the site that I like to look at this time of year - https://www.severe-weather.eu/ Their latest blog posts - https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-pattern-december-blocking-cold-air-polar-vortex-split-united-states-europe-fa/ https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-season-2022-2023-snowfall-predictions-final-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-cold-start-fa/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Still eyeing the middle third of December (10th-20th) for our first legit threat(s) of the season. Not much has morphed/changed wrt the overall pattern progresslon being advertised on the ens means. Scandinavian ridge feeds large negative NAO, EPO ridge noses poleward, TPV migrates into classic positon near Hudson bay, signal for PNA to go neutral/positive with split off the West coast. And now we are starting to see the ops spit out some storms in that period that coincide with the ens means pattern depictions. Trackable times arent far off. ^^a sample of what the ops are starting to tease 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Light rain is already moving in from SW to NE across Chester County this morning. Showers should be on the increase along with winds gusting to possibly as high as 45mph today. Warm temps today with mid-50's likely. Clearing and much colder tonight with lows in the upper 20's. Our roller coaster of temps will continue with warmer temps again Saturday with more shower chances before colder on Sunday. It looks increasingly likely that a major pattern change is under way with pretty consistent below normal temperatures starting by the middle of next week. The record high for today is 72 degrees set back in 1933. Our record low is 9 degrees from 1976. The daily rain record is 2.51" from 2020. Record daily snow was the 6.0" that fell today back in 1967. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Wow has this changed a bit for the December outlook.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Winds be a howling...39F at 10:10pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Freight train winds out there...may have picked a little since a couple hours ago. 35F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 We ended November with an average temperature of 47.1 - this is 3.1 degrees above normal. Through the first 13 days of November we were 10.8 degrees above normal so quite the shift for the 2nd half of the month. This was the 16th warmest November since records began back in 1894. So far in 2022 we have had 6 months with above normal temps and 5 months with below normal temps. Looking ahead the last well above normal temperature day looks to be on Saturday...otherwise the well advertised change to colder looks likely through at least mid-December. The record high for today is 70.9 from 2006. The record low is 7 degrees above zero from 1967. Daily rain record is the 1.80" from 1996. Daily snow record is the 0.5" that fell in 1907. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 On 11/30/2022 at 4:58 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Still eyeing the middle third of December (10th-20th) for our first legit threat(s) of the season. Not much has morphed/changed wrt the overall pattern progresslon being advertised on the ens means. Scandinavian ridge feeds large negative NAO, EPO ridge noses poleward, TPV migrates into classic positon near Hudson bay, signal for PNA to go neutral/positive with split off the West coast. And now we are starting to see the ops spit out some storms in that period that coincide with the ens means pattern depictions. Trackable times arent far off. ^^a sample of what the ops are starting to tease Ya'll know we don't get the goods on the front end of blocking and wait until it matures/breaks down. Christmas week looking prime, keep believe I said that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 I would say this is not a warm look for Christmas Week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Continuing the theme of late autumn and now into met winter, patience is going to be required. What we are seeing on the ens is a mix of variability and 'unicorn' pattern morphing in the LR. While the NAO is still likely to develop and has already begun to do so, we are seeing changes up top as well as increased flex in the SER in the medium range. The weaker and quick-to-fade TPV that last week's ens were showing as a bowling ball setting up over Hudson Bay is one of the key players that is throwing fits at winter wx freaks. A strong TPV over HB can help knock down a SER and we sort of rely on this during a Nina. Without this (and other pieces) the SER can continue to bulge and remain a base state wrt a Nina pattern. Couple this with a strongly retrograding NAO ridge and this often times leads to a link between these 2 features putting things on 'hold' until a catalyst comes along to help out. This could be a PNA ridge, a TPV building S near HB, or a favorable MJO phase (which ties in the PNA). As noted before Thanksgiving, that pig ridge in the PAC that keeps feeding a ridge over the Aleutians isnt going to make many friends....though at times it CAN feed the EPO which bumps the TPV into more of a favorable position. However, this can also lead to cold and dry episodes. So, it is a real balancing act we try to work with during Ninas. What we are seeing on the GEFS is more of a move towards SER/NAO interaction, transient PNA ridging, a split flow off the WC with stj connection, weakned TPV, and more robust central PAC blob ridge. Needless to say, this isnt a be all-end all deal. There is plenty of support for the -NAO/-AO hanging strong. And this bodes well as we get deeper into winter. Without those HL ridges as a base state this winter, we would probably be shutting the blinds for chunks at a time. BUT, if the HL blocking continues as a background phase, then we will be able to have chances as this balances out the less favorable teleconnections. Long-winded and probably not the clearest or most well-worded writeup, but a few points.....dont chase unicorn patterns particularly in a Nina in the LR, temper expectations even when good looks begin to show in the MR, and be patient. I cannot emphasize that last one enough. We usually need to wait for the NAO to relax/reload to score and even then, it isnt a lock. Cant tell you how many times we've seen good patterns come and go with little or nothing to show. But with that said, if the NAO/AO continue to reload this winter, the odds if cashing in will increase. Going to take some time and a little (lot?) of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Wave to keep an eye on. Hints among all models but results vary from a southern slider to a nice clean easy event in this region, to a SNE cash-in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 ^^^Real balancing act between the SER flex, a lobe of the TPV sliding along in S Canada, and the NAO. Not going to have the details worked out for another 5 days imo then a couple days to fine tune. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Our roller coaster ride of temps swings will continue through Wednesday before a prolonged period of below normal cold arrives later this upcoming week. Today will be our 2nd below normal day to start the month of December. Tomorrow may be the warmest day for the rest of the year as temps will climb to the mid-50's with showers for many across the county. Chilly again for Sunday and Monday. The record high for today is 65 degrees from 1962. Our record low is 8 degrees from 1976. The daily rain record is 1.13" from 1986. The daily snow record is the 4.5" that fell way back in 1903. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 For reference: 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: For reference: Wow that is a great graph! Would love for someone to make that in my subforum as well (now there is a little bit of overlap with the Mid-Atl of course) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wow that is a great graph! Would love for someone to make that in my subforum as well (now there is a little bit of overlap with the Mid-Atl of course) For Washington or Baltimore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 My fortune cookie from last night sums it up best... Be patient; in time, even an egg will walk. 41F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Really need the PNA to pop positive. Things look good in the NAO/AO domain beginning now, but until we get some ridging in the west we're going to be stuck in the cold/dry > warm up/wet cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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