Rtd208 Posted November 19, 2022 Author Share Posted November 19, 2022 Had snow showers move thru here between 7-9 pm last night. Overnight low of 28 here Current temp 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 Ended up with a high of 43 yesterday and got my first flakage of the season to boot. Was at the movies last night in Flourtown and when I left to go there, it was around 40 with some sprinkles. Then outside the theater with the active breeze, the flakes were noticeable (took a few minutes for me to point them out to my sister because the winds were blowing almost horizontally which made it harder to see but when it let up, they were definitely there). After the movie, it was already down to 35. This morning I registered my first "hard freeze" (temp = 28 and below) with a 26. It's recovering now and up to a partly cloudy 32, with dp an arctic 20 (had to start pulling out the humidifiers yesterday because it got down to 22% inside ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 This morning's low of 24.7 is the coldest reading since the 24.0 low temperature back on March 30th. Most spots in the county will stay in the 30's today and fall back into the low 20's tonight. Tomorrow will be colder with some spots barely making it to freezing for high temperatures. We will start a slow warming trend starting Monday with temps getting back to near normal in the upper 40's by Thanksgiving Day. Our next chance of rain will be on Thanksgiving night. Our record high for today is 74 degrees set back in 1913. The record low was 12 degrees from 1924. Daily rain record is 1.74" from 1988. The daily snow record is the 3.0" that fell today back in 1955. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 Looking forward, it appears on the ens means that we are heading towards more of a Nina look with a fast moving Northern jet and SER with more of a -PNA look out west. GEPS is the least Nina-ish fwiw. Needless to say, a hostile PAC side probably wont work out for us, especially in late Nov/early Dec. Where and when the pattern heads after this is up for debate. It does appear the -NAO has some staying power....but watch the Atlantic crap the bed once the PAC turns less hostile. This has been a repeated theme over the past several years....tough to get both sides working in tandem. Doesnt matter quite as much late in the season where we can cash in on crud patterns with shorter wavelength between systems. What irks me on the ens that ALSO is showing that it may be a base state feature this year is, once again, the central PAC positive 500 anomaly blob that keeps trying to feed an Aleutian ridge. We need to see neg anomalies in the Aleutians, not the opposite. So after some BN weather, it appears after Thanksgiving weekend that things relax and 'hopefully' are setting up for a reload (?) during the first half of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 A caveat to that Ralph is guidance up to a couple days ago had the cold locked in, it could just as easily flip back. Wonders if DT flips too.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 39F, w/a decent breeze at 3:05pm is pretty solid for 11/19. Sun is already starting to go down behind the houses (shadows)....good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 39F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 1 hour ago, RedSky said: A caveat to that Ralph is guidance up to a couple days ago had the cold locked in, it could just as easily flip back. Wonders if DT flips too.. Btw, i dont think those maps are particularly mild or torch looks. Not with a -NAO. But it also doesnt look Vodka cold either. We need better looks out West thru a good chunk of Dec and even early Jan if we are going to score. Just my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 Record low max forecast at KRDG tomorrow. NWS forecast is 34, current record is 35 from 1951 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 It's cold-ish and windy outside. 30F wind chills upper teens/low 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Made it up to 40 as a high yesterday and bottomed out this morning at a "warmer"-than- yesterday-morning 30 due to the wind gusts overnight, so not ideal for radiational cooling. It's currently sunny and 32 and don't expect to get much warmer as the dp is now getting close to or in the upper single digits at 10 (9.7). Humidifiers working overtime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 An unseasonably and possibly record breaking cold day on tap today. The record lowest maximum temperature for today is the 33 degrees set back in 1984 (records go back till 1894). We have a chance to break that as our high so far today was the 31.7 reading at 1:11am. We could also come close to the record low for tomorrow morning. That record low is 17 degrees set in 1951. The NWS forecasts a low of 17 degrees tomorrow. Temps will slowly warm this week getting us back to just about normal for Thanksgiving Day. Rain is likely by Thanksgiving Night into black Friday. The record high for today is 75 degrees from 1975. The record low for today is 16 degrees from 1951. The daily rain record is 1.80" from 1952. The daily snow record is 0.8" set in 1937. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, Newman said: Beat me to it! I managed to just tap 34 IMBY today as a "high" just before 4:30 pm and that was it. That's like January weather. It's currently a clear and breezy 31 with dp 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Definitely a winter feeling day w/wind. Got in the car around 6:30am this morning and the temp read 26F. Just arrived home around an hour ago and the car read 29F. Probably hit the low 30s at peak hours but the overall a brisk day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 We did indeed set a record lowest maximum temperature for today of 32.1 besting the previous record of 33 degrees set back in 1984 (records go back till 1894). This is the earliest sub freezing day since November 13, 2019 which represented the 2nd earliest sub freezing day in Chester County history behind only November 11, 1987 which is the earliest sub-freezing day on record for the County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 My admittedly rather poorly sited anemometer recorded a gust of 25 mph with average of 18 mph winds earlier today (actually yesterday as of typing this). It's currently 22.6°F, feels like our customary February deep freeze, and I'm here for it. My high today (yesterday) was 33.9. Although I hate to tell you guys, winter is cancelled because I just ordered a new Ego snowblower. Sorry. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buck Fiden Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 12 hours ago, ChescoWx said: We did indeed set a record lowest maximum temperature for today of 32.1 besting the previous record of 33 degrees set back in 1984 (records go back till 1894). This is the earliest sub freezing day since November 13, 2019 which represented the 2nd earliest sub freezing day in Chester County history behind only November 11, 1987 which is the earliest sub-freezing day on record for the County. 11/11/87 was the surprise Veterans Day snowstorm which clobbered the DC area and fizzled as it moved into our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Hit a low of 20.7F this morning. Currently at 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 We almost set a new record low this morning...but just missed with a low here in East Nantmeal of 18.7 (17.0 record from 1951) After a couple more below normal temperature days we should see a return to normal temps by Wednesday and lasting right through the holiday weekend. Average high temps for the last week of November are around 50 degrees. The record high for today is 76 degrees set back in 1900. The record low is 17.0 from 1951. The daily rain mark is 2.29" from 1952 and our record daily snowfall is 1.5" from 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Bottomed out at 22 this morning, the coldest since March 28 of this year. The winds went calm overnight which aided in that radiational cooling. It's currently sunny with blue skies and 37, but with a dp that is still vacillating between 9 and 10, so the cold dry arctic air is still making its presence felt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 <crickets>Its that time of year we're just about due for a poll on merging subforums</crickets> 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 The jist I got from Cecily the other night was that if you liked last years winter, then lather, rinse, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 48 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: The jist I got from Cecily the other night was that if you liked last years winter, then lather, rinse, repeat. Not horrible, winter outlooks are a crapshoot. That's why Glenn gave up on them before retirement... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 51 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Not horrible, winter outlooks are a crapshoot. That's why Glenn gave up on them before retirement... I will take the hard over on snow totals this year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 A nice couple days through Thanksgiving. Temps moderating to near normal. Some rain possible later Friday into Saturday AM. More rain looks to arrive by Sunday AM - Sunday now looks like the wetter of the 2 days. Our record high for today is 72 degrees from 1931. The record low is 13 degrees from 1964. Daily rain record is the 1.86" that fell in 1991. The daily snow record is the 1.7" that fell back in 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Looking more and more likely we reload into another cold pattern with multiple snow chances between the 6th and 22nd of December. Models starting to come around to this idea.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Not horrible, winter outlooks are a crapshoot. That's why Glenn gave up on them before retirement... Not telling you anything you don't already know...our snow climo is such that one 6" storm hit or miss can determine if we end up above or below average. Hell, even a storm that changes over 2-3 hours sooner or later will affect how much above vs below we end up. I guess what I'm saying is, these winter outlooks of few inches either side of normal are nothing more than a crap shoot. Forecasting a 2019-20 or a 1995-96 winter shows skill (IMHO). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 18 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Not telling you anything you don't already know...our snow climo is such that one 6" storm hit or miss can determine if we end up above or below average. Hell, even a storm that changes over 2-3 hours sooner or later will affect how much above vs below we end up. I guess what I'm saying is, these winter outlooks of few inches either side of normal are nothing more than a crap shoot. Forecasting a 2019-20 or a 1995-96 winter shows skill (IMHO). I know EPAWX has also moved away from any seasonal forecasts.....that said I am working on my own winter forecast today....It should be just as good as my past ones!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Patience is a virtue.....boys, we may be waiting a while again this year. Some folks are saying the pattern will rollover early/mid dec. Maybe it will, maybe not. I prefer to look at the ens means at range and not really much furher than that. Might get bored in this pattern and end up lookong at the weeklies/monthlies for some sense of hope. For now, ens means unanimous in locking in that pig ridge in the central PAC and repeatedly feeding/reloading the Aleutian ridge. Again, we want a trof there preferably to pump heights out west (+PNA). The NAO is stout but probably doesnt help centered SE of Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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