September 2022

[scootmandu]

Final storm total for last night: .78

Total for the month: 5.99

Meanwhile, News 12 LI is reporting that the NWS is in Mattituck to determine if a tornado caused the damage there last night. A woman had a tree fall onto her house. They have damage pictures on their website.

[NorthShoreWx]

Didn't get power back until 10:30 this morning.  1.11" rainfall last night brings September total in North Smithtown to 3.72"

[USCG RS]

17 hours ago, USCG RS said:

Shear doing wonders.. 

https://longisland.news12.com/possible-tornado-touches-down-near-mattituck

 

[MANDA]

All signs point to dry weather pattern into next week.  Any remnant moisture from Ida looks to get squeezed out to the south of NJ.  Maybe SNJ gets something meaningful (1-2") but not even sure about that.  Just can't seem to get the tables to turn to get the Northeast into a wetter pattern.

[lee59]

When summer turned into fall last week, the weather was right on time with the change. 

[donsutherland1]

Cooler air will begin moving into the region tomorrow. The week will likely end with unseasonably cool temperatures.

Conditions in ENSO Region 1+2 could have implications for October's temperature anomalies. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

Early tomorrow, Cuba will see Ian cross the western end of its island as a major hurricane. Afterward, parts of the Florida Keys and then the Gulf Coast of Florida could face a hurricane threat. Tampa will need to watch the storm carefully.

In part due to Merbok's impact on the jet stream, September will likely end with cooler than normal conditions. The cool weather could continue into at least the start of October.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +32.21 today. That broke the old record of +30.04 from 1998.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.686 today.

On September 24 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.600 (RMM). The September 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.485 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.7° (0.5° above normal).

 

[psv88]

Confirmed tornado in Suffolk last night. 

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, MANDA said:

All signs point to dry weather pattern into next week.  Any remnant moisture from Ida looks to get squeezed out to the south of NJ.  Maybe SNJ gets something meaningful (1-2") but not even sure about that.  Just can't seem to get the tables to turn to get the Northeast into a wetter pattern.

The east shifts from Ian tonight mean Ian could get a lot further north aka remnant moisture. 

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Confirmed tornado in Suffolk last night. 

...NWS Damage Survey for 09/25/2022 Tornado Event...

...EF0 Tornado Confirmed in Mattituck, NY...

Overview...A National Weather Service storm survey team, in
coordination with Suffolk County Fire Rescue and Emergency
Services has confirmed an EF0 tornado in the Mattituck area of
Suffolk County NY.

Based on analysis of the storm survey findings and OKX dual pol
radar reflectivity, velocity and derived data (including a
tornadic debris signature), it was determined that an EF0 tornado
first touched down at Juniper Hill farms around 1117 pm, damaging
a greenhouse and downing a couple of large trees on the property.

The tornadic circulation likely lifted or skipped along as it
tracked east northeast across a one mile stretch of remote wooded
area, before touching down and shearing several tree tops and
large limbs in the vicinity of Cottage Way, Walnut Place, and
Lipco Road, between Sound Avenue and Old Sound Avenue. Peripheral
straight line wind damage to a large tree was noted near Shirley
Road and Horton Avenue to the north of Sound Avenue as well.

The tornadic circulation likely skipped east northeast in the
vicinity of Old Sound Avenue/Main Street over Love Lane and
Wickham Avenue with spotty tree damage noted, before definitively
touching down once again between Wickham Ave and Mary`s Road to
the north of Pike Street, with a large maple tree sheared a few
feet from its base, minor siding and roof damage, and leaf
splatter on the west and south sides of homes. This most
prominent damage path, about 50 to 75 yards in width, continued
across Mary`s Road, where 3 evergreen trees were snapped at their
base in a convergent pattern (the 2 southernmost trees laying in a
northeast direction and the northernmost tree laying in a
southeast direction). The tornado continued eastward across the
Mattituck-Cutchogue Jr/Sr high school track, twisting and damaging
a large scoreboard, overturning metals benches, and laying down a
100 ft section of wind fence on the north side of the adjacent
tennis courts in a northerly direction (again consistent with a
convergent wind pattern). The tornado then continued east over the
high school, ripping up large sections of asphalt roofing
material over one of the main buildings. The damage across the
high school grounds was the most severe along the path, consistent
with tornadic winds of 75 to 85 mph.

The tornado then exited east over an area of homes on Village
Lane, causing significant tree and fence damage to several homes,
before likely lifting around 1120 pm as the rotating storm
continued eastward over the farm fields and vineyards that lay to
the east. No visible damage was noted to the east of this point,
marking the presumed end of the tornado path.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 73°

Newark: 75°

Philadelphia: 75°

It will turn cooler tomorrow. The week will end with cool temperatures.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 71.9°; 15-Year: 73.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 73.4°; 15-Year: 74.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 74.7°; 15-Year: 75.9°

[MJO812]

Rainfall totals for the next 7 days from WPC

 

[bluewave]

All the guidance has a sharp cutoff to Ian’s rainfall just to our south as blocking Canadian high pressure dominates. 

 

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of September are averaging  63degs.(56/71) or -3.

Month to date is  70.9[+0.9].         September should end at  6.8[+0.6].

Reached 76 here yesterday.

Today:   71-75, wind w-breezy, few clouds, 58 tomorrow AM.

Compare:      Farther south?

61*(59%RH) here at 7am.      63* at 9am-11am.       66* at Noon.        70* at 3pm.      Reached 73* at 5pm.       66* at 7pm.

 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Rainfall totals for the next 7 days from WPC

 

I hope the 1/2" makes it that far north.  Questionable in my mind.  Hopefully it does especially for the sake of those on the south shore of L.I. who have been long suffering and screwed over at nearly every turn over the last several months.  Fingers crossed.

[the_other_guy]

So after all that, September is going to end…just about Normal

[jm1220]

Today’s LOL-flooding lake effect rain north of Syracuse. Can’t say I’ve seen flash flood warnings for those before or 4-6” of rain from lake effect streamers.

Lakes must be really warm for that to happen. 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

So after all that, September is going to end…just about Normal

Against our highest normals

[Stormlover74]

[Stormlover74]

UKMET is also wet and CMC came way north with the 1" line just south of the city

[MANDA]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

This would be so welcome if it is real.  Based on trends with Ian this morning I think the chances for decent rainfall reaching into this forum have increased over the last 12 hours.  We'll see what future trends show.  Way to early to lock in these amounts but encouraging to see.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

UKMET is also wet and CMC came way north with the 1" line just south of the city

Euro also has the rain getting further north next weekend into Tuesday 

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro also has the rain getting further north next weekend into Tuesday 

Closer in look through 12Z Wed.  EURO and GFS clearly aligned for a wetter solution for most of this forum.  It will be most welcome for the south shore LI crew if it works out.  Chances certainly have gone up for something decent over the last 12 hours.

[Stormlover74]

30 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Closer in look through 12Z Wed.  EURO and GFS clearly aligned for a wetter solution for most of this forum.  It will be most welcome for the south shore LI crew if it works out.  Chances certainly have gone up for something decent over the last 12 hours.

The rain comes in 2 waves on euro..sun morning and again Tuesday 

[Rtd208]

We are going to have to closely monitor just how far north Ian's remnant rains will get over the 4-5 days. It will not take much of a north shift to see much heavier rains in the NYC metro area very late in the weekend and early next week. 

[LoboLeader1]

Gorgeous day outdoors today, topped @ 68F.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

We are going to have to closely monitor just how far north Ian's remnant rains will get over the 4-5 days. It will not take much of a north shift to see much heavier rains in the NYC metro area very late in the weekend and early next week. 

GFS continues to trend in that direction 

[Stormlover74]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS continues to trend in that direction 

18z went the other direction 

 

[MANDA]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

18z went the other direction 

 

If ever there was a year for the rug to constantly be pulled out from under you 2022 would be it.  Long ways to go on this.  Main question for me is does the .50" make it to south shore.  I'd have to say questionable.  12Z run looked way too wet and 18Z looks way too dry.  12Z EURO looking like a good compromise at this point.  SNJ for sure has the best chance at 1-2".

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

If ever there was a year for the rug to constantly be pulled out from under you 2022 would be it.  Long ways to go on this.  Main question for me is does the .50" make it to south shore.  I'd have to say questionable.  12Z run looked way too wet and 18Z looks way too dry.  12Z EURO looking like a good compromise at this point.  SNJ for sure has the best chance at 1-2".

I mean we've come to expect the gfs to do this and usually suppresses systems til the last minute. But we'll see what the other models do

[donsutherland1]

Cooler air will begin moving into the region tomorrow. The week will likely end with unseasonably cool temperatures.

Conditions in ENSO Region 1+2 could have implications for October's temperature anomalies. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

Earlier today, Ian crossed western Cuba with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. Ian will now move past the Florida Keys and then move toward the Gulf Coast of Florida where it will make landfall. The storm will slow dramatically as it approaches and reaches Florida. As a result, an area of excessive to extreme rainfall is likely.

In part due to Merbok's impact on the jet stream, September will likely end with cooler than normal conditions. The cool weather could continue into at least the start of October.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +35.30 today. That broke the daily record of +30.41 that was set in 1998.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.975 today.

On September 25 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.557 (RMM). The September 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.597 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.7° (0.5° above normal).