September 2022

[wdrag]

Suggest: merging your data with surrounding... and best--get yourself an Ambient weather sensor, or even better, Stratus gage to measure. Stratus is conservative (CoCoRaHs approved) and probably more accurate than the automated gages (especially intense rainfall rates). I know I was embedded low (0.21) but also there was data that suggested that my data FIT.

Let's try again tomorrow to compare (new 24 hour map will post late the 26th)since am working part time). Again check gages to ensure your accuracy and reduce any speculation.

Note: our area in SVR outlook today so it should be interesting with 1-2 bands of heavy convection.

 

[wdrag]

Long ways to go and still some modeling OTS south of us with only a glancing blow. I am not giving up on substantial rainfall beginning here late Friday but modeling across the board favors a 10/1 or 2 event here.  Until we get to 96 hours out, I'll hold with that Friday afternoon start but I do understand that the last 24 hours has slowed and may be telling me flat out: WRONG.

I just wait out the model solutions. 

In the meantime... "overall"  ensembles have the moisture path favoring passage overhead next weekend. I am not saying anything more than squally winds at this point. 

Here's one example from the 00z/25 cycle. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy and warmer. A strong or perhaps severe thunderstorm is possible, especially during the afternoon or evening hours. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 73°

Newark: 76°

Philadelphia: 78°

The mild weather will continue tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 72.7°; 15-Year: 73.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 74.3°; 15-Year: 75.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 75.5°; 15-Year: 76.6°

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of September are averaging  62degs.(56/69) or -3.

Month to date is  71.4[+1.1].        September should end at  69.6[+0.4]

Reached 72 here yesterday.

Today: 72-76, wind w., variable clouds, rain after 3pm., 64 tomorrow AM.

61*(74%RH) here at 7am.     63* at 8am.       69* at Noon.       Reached 74* at 3pm.        66* at 7pm.

As for Ira:

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We may be able to get a localized weak tornado near the warm front today. Late season severe potential like we have seen in recent years. Decent lapse rates and 50 KT of shear. But severe wind gusts and hail look like the main threats for most areas.

TT54 in the sounding you posted... 50kt down to 600MB= all excellent indicators.  may see some spot 1" rains by tomorrow morning. 

[wdrag]

Of interest: no admission in mPing this morning of rain on LI.  I checked JFK,LGA, CP--all had traces.   DIX-OKX STP has bands of trace-0.01 across  parts of our area (OKX more conservative may be more reliable).  submitted 1231z/25

 

[LoboLeader1]

[Stormlover74]

Lol

 

[hudsonvalley21]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

We may be able to get a localized weak tornado near the warm front today. Late season severe potential like we have seen in recent years. Decent lapse rates and 50 KT of shear. But severe wind gusts and hail look like the main threats for most areas.

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, looks like we’ll also be near the favorable left front upper jet quadrant as the disturbance slides under the record block. This year is on track to challenge or beat 1976 and 1952 for strongest September blocking over Southern Greenland. The Fiona wave break will continue to reinforce this record blocking pattern for September. 
 

This might mean we get the elusive below normal weather to start October 

[Stormlover74]

Still 67 and cloudy

[forkyfork]

we can't win

 

[SACRUS]

68 / 57 SSW winds, cloudy as the warm front begis to push through - storms later this PM.  Mon (9/26) - Thu (9/29) looks dry and pleasant , beginning to cool by Thu and depending on where / what is left of Ian goes potential stormy, and rough Fri (9/30) - Sun (10/2) as whatever is left of Ian is slow to clear with Ridging bumping and blocking off the coast but a deep trough will eventually push out Ian/ remnants by early next week 10/3.  Beyond there looking more normal and drier into the end of the frist week of next month.

Record highs and late season heat 6 years ago in 2017 with low / mid 90s in the area, 30s in 1963.

[Rmine1]

20 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

we can't win

 

Skunked again? Haven’t paid attention 

[Allsnow]

58 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Still 67 and cloudy

A current condition that doesn’t scream severe weather is on the way 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

A current condition that doesn’t scream severe weather is on the way 

I wasn't really expecting severe just hoping for some heavy rain

[psv88]

Who wants severe weather anymore? 

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

I wasn't really expecting severe just hoping for some heavy rain

Some decent downpours in eastern PA right now. Hopefully we'll get enough to give things a decent watering.

[SnoSki14]

I didn't even bother following any "threat" for today. 

You'll get some showers and that's it

[forkyfork]

26 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Who wants severe weather anymore? 

2010-2020 was such an awful tree massacre 

[qg_omega]

35 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Who wants severe weather anymore? 

Everyone posting

[psv88]

19 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

2010-2020 was such an awful tree massacre 

Yup. Half the trees in my neighborhood are gone. It’s crazy. The microburst a few years ago took down most of them

[NorthShoreWx]

Three (calendar) days in a row here with a minimum of 50.  We did not get below 50.  Gonna have an extended growing season with sound temps still around 70.  Only chance for frost will be with light south wind on backside of a cold high allowing the north shore to decouple before the humidity starts to rise.  Needs pretty good timing in early fall here.  Otherwise, a light northerly wind is a warm wind direction close to the sound at this time of year and it keeps blowing while a couple of miles south it can go calm.

[forkyfork]

16 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Everyone posting

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/10-upstate-new-yorkpennsylvania/

[Stormlover74]

Up to 70 partly sunny. 

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Three (calendar) days in a row here with a minimum of 50.  We did not get below 50.  Gonna have an extended growing season with sound temps still around 70.  Only chance for frost will be with light south wind on backside of a cold high allowing the north shore to decouple before the humidity starts to rise.  Needs pretty good timing in early fall here.  Otherwise, a light northerly wind is a warm wind direction close to the sound at this time of year and it keeps blowing while a couple of miles south it can go calm.

Yep. Even further south by me we stayed warmer than areas away from the sound. I’m a solid 6-7 miles from the sound too 

[NorthShoreWx]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yep. Even further south by me we stayed warmer than areas away from the sound. I’m a solid 6-7 miles from the sound too 

It's a common phenomenon.  Lake front areas downwind of Erie and Ontario have the longest growing seasons in western and central NY.

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Some decent downpours in eastern PA right now. Hopefully we'll get enough to give things a decent watering.

Died out. Hopefully the next batch clips us

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Died out. Hopefully the next batch clips us

Yeah that 2nd batch is what I've had my eye on. It looks good on radar right now and is on track to hit us. It's getting ready to move into western NJ, and hopefully it'll hold together.

[SACRUS]