September 2022

[MANDA]

Three day total here = 2.53".  Had .63" last 24 hours from steady light rain, mist and drizzle. 

[wdrag]

Good Wednesday morning,  

 

I read complaints about less than 1" rain fall--parts of the e 2/3rd LI and near I78 in NJ.  Everyone else had 1+ with many reports 3-5" ne PA-nw NJ se NYS-CT.  The region nw of NYC is the important part for NYC drinking water.  Overall, I think the modeling did VERY well attempting to highlight general rainfall, including MAX 7-10" and the bands as Bluewave and others pointed out.  1970--- that wouldn't be happening. 

 

Lawns (Cone Flowers)--not critical.  

Droughts are natural processes and so they exert stress but if we manage... we get through it.

 

I've attached, for what it's worth ,the NYC Reservoir system which as of 9/6 was 11% below normal.  Today and tomorrow it will be less below normal as it continues to pour in parts of these reservoir areas as well as heavier rains getting ready to spread southward for a few hours from e PA and extreme northern NJ into west central NJ,  before fading tonight. 

 

Have a day.

 

[nycwinter]

what a beautiful; day today.. cool temps nice breeze jacket weather !!

[snywx]

1.23” for the day with steady rain continuing 

3.33” total so far

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Good Wednesday morning,  

 

I read complaints about less than 1" rain fall--parts of the e 2/3rd LI and near I78 in NJ.  Everyone else had 1+ with many reports 3-5" ne PA-nw NJ se NYS-CT.  The region nw of NYC is the important part for NYC drinking water.  Overall, I think the modeling did VERY well attempting to highlight general rainfall, including MAX 7-10" and the bands as Bluewave and others pointed out.  1970--- that wouldn't be happening. 

 

Lawns (Cone Flowers)--not critical.  

Droughts are natural processes and so they exert stress but if we manage... we get through it.

 

I've attached, for what it's worth ,the NYC Reservoir system which as of 9/6 was 11% below normal.  Today and tomorrow it will be less below normal as it continues to pour in parts of these reservoir areas as well as heavier rains getting ready to spread southward for a few hours from e PA and extreme northern NJ into west central NJ,  before fading tonight. 

 

Have a day.

 

Considering the situation today I bet the Cannonsville and Pepacton will see HUGE increases over this. 

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

what a beautiful; day today.. cool temps nice breeze jacket weather !!

feels like february 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

what a beautiful; day today.. cool temps nice breeze jacket weather !!

Yep first taste of fall....feels good to shut off the AC

[Cfa]

1.25” storm total, honestly much more than I expected.

September so far is already close to my total for all of August.

[winterwx21]

Euro now holds the rain off until wednesday next week.

[STORMANLI]

1.62"

[WestBabylonWeather]

7 hours ago, wdrag said:

Good Wednesday morning,  

 

I read complaints about less than 1" rain fall--parts of the e 2/3rd LI and near I78 in NJ.  Everyone else had 1+ with many reports 3-5" ne PA-nw NJ se NYS-CT.  The region nw of NYC is the important part for NYC drinking water.  Overall, I think the modeling did VERY well attempting to highlight general rainfall, including MAX 7-10" and the bands as Bluewave and others pointed out.  1970--- that wouldn't be happening. 

 

Lawns (Cone Flowers)--not critical.  

Droughts are natural processes and so they exert stress but if we manage... we get through it.

 

I've attached, for what it's worth ,the NYC Reservoir system which as of 9/6 was 11% below normal.  Today and tomorrow it will be less below normal as it continues to pour in parts of these reservoir areas as well as heavier rains getting ready to spread southward for a few hours from e PA and extreme northern NJ into west central NJ,  before fading tonight. 

 

Have a day.

 

I’ll be up in Delaware county this November. We hike the creek that feeds the reservoir up there. 

[wdrag]

8 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Considering the situation today I bet the Cannonsville and Pepacton will see HUGE increases over this. 

fwiw...todays report increased the capacity 0.9%  (significant 1 day in my opinion).  Will check tomorrow afternoon as will post a 4 day CoCoRaHs total which should show some large 4-6" amounts ne PA, se NYS near the tri states corner (HPoint). 

[wdrag]

3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Euro now holds the rain off until wednesday next week.

Not the GFS... interesting battle.  Ensembles suggest to me two events... the lower Miss Valley WAA push by late Sunday or Monday morning, and then whatever happens with the newly developing Great Lakes - Ohio Valley closed low and associated confluence - strong RRQ of Quebec  200MB jet core Tuesday-Wednesday night. I think this has potential big rains here but confidence not quite as high as what just occurred. 

 

Noting EC/GGEM have the Lower Miss Valley low shooting out a pretty good 500mb vort max across NYC subforum late Sunday as seen on Trop tidbits. 

[Rjay]

0.65 was my total.  

[scootmandu]

12 hours ago, wdrag said:

Attached are 3 day CoCoRaHs totals: we are not done yet across the interior especially tri- state corner. 

The dry slot previously advertised is why outlooks were for 1/2-4". Parts of e LI were under 1/2". Definitely drier near I78 than initially modeled but beneficial nonetheless. 

Next event instead of Sun-Mon will be Mon-Tue as cued by models and a sampler of 48 hour rainfall is attached ending 00z/Wed (Tue evening dinner). The placement will adjust in our subforum. PW will approach 2" across NJ, again.  Speed of front and proximity of sfc low passage will determine max axis...

Our storm total from the last storm was exactly 3 inches. A neighbor had 3.4." That map of storm totals had very incomplete data from Long Island, and seemingly no reports from northwest Suffolk County. On the map that was posted we are just east of Northport, bordering LI Sound. I saw no stations listed there.

[CIK62]

MORE LIKE SUMMER  THAN SUMMER ITSELF.   77*(69/85)  and just 1" of  rain---all of  it  next   Sun?/Mon/Tues?

A most remarkable run by the GFS-----a model with no Quality Control or Self-Respect.     Use for Newark or Use With Caution.    lol!

 

[Brian5671]

GFS always overdone on the heat in the LR....

[donsutherland1]

Sunshine will return tomorrow and it will turn warmer. Near normal to somewhat above normal temperatures will then continue through the weekend.

The ongoing intense heatwave will begin to wind down tomorrow in the West. Today's preliminary high temperatures included:

Billings: 102° (old record: 97°, 1998)
Boise: 104° (old record: 97°, 1955) ***New September record***
Casper: 96° (old record: 94°, 1978)
Cheyenne: 97° (old record: 90°, 1959) ***New September record***
Death Valley, CA: 122° (tied record set in 2021)
Denver: 99° (old record: 95°, 1933 and 2013)
Fresno: 111° (old record: 108°, 1904)
Glasgow, MT: 106° (old record: 96°, 2003) ***New September record***
Great Falls: 100° (old record: 95°, 1998)
Havre, MT: 104° (old record: 99°, 1998) ***New September record***
Helena: 102° (old record: 96°, 1998) ***New September record***
Pocatello: 100° (old record: 97°, 1979)
Reno: 104° (old record: 98°, 2021)
Sacramento: 107° (old record: 105°, 2020)
Salt Lake City: 107° (old record: 99°, 1979) ***Tied all-time record***

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +15.57 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.436 today.

On September 5 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.305 (RMM). The September 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.586 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.5° (1.3° above normal).

 

[psv88]

44 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Sunshine will return tomorrow and it will turn warmer. Near normal to somewhat above normal temperatures will then continue through the weekend.

The ongoing intense heatwave will begin to wind down tomorrow in the West. Today's preliminary high temperatures included:

Billings: 102° (old record: 97°, 1998)
Boise: 104° (old record: 97°, 1955) ***New September record***
Casper: 96° (old record: 94°, 1978)
Cheyenne: 97° (old record: 90°, 1959) ***New September record***
Death Valley, CA: 122° (tied record set in 2021)
Denver: 99° (old record: 95°, 1933 and 2013)
Fresno: 111° (old record: 108°, 1904)
Glasgow, MT: 106° (old record: 96°, 2003) ***New September record***
Great Falls: 100° (old record: 95°, 1998)
Havre, MT: 104° (old record: 99°, 1998) ***New September record***
Helena: 102° (old record: 96°, 1998) ***New September record***
Pocatello: 100° (old record: 97°, 1979)
Reno: 104° (old record: 98°, 2021)
Sacramento: 107° (old record: 105°, 2020)
Salt Lake City: 107° (old record: 99°, 1979) ***Tied all-time record***

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +15.57 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.436 today.

On September 5 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.305 (RMM). The September 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.586 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.5° (1.3° above normal).

 

Gotta love places in Cali and UT setting all time records in September, what a world we live in

[psv88]

4 hours ago, STORMANLI said:

1.62"

Wow, more than I thought we got. Was definitely a nice drink. 

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

MORE LIKE SUMMER  THAN SUMMER ITSELF.   77*(69/85)  and just 1" of  rain---all of  it  next   Sun?/Mon/Tues?

A most remarkable run by the GFS-----a model with no Quality Control or Self-Respect.     Use for Newark or Use With Caution.    lol!

 

remarkably dumb model temps been wrong every time you post...

[nycwinter]

19 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Gotta love places in Cali and UT setting all time records in September, what a world we live in

not unusual for california in september

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly sunny and warmer.  High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 83°

It will begin to turn warmer tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 79.0°; 15-Year: 79.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 80.5°; 15-Year: 80.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 81.6°; 15-Year: 81.8°

[bluewave]

Temperatures gradually warming up next few days and peaking in the upper 80s on Saturday. Then a closed low approaches for early next week. So that will be our next chance for convection. 

 

[Allsnow]

Perhaps next week gives us the rain we need in the areas that need it the most 

[wdrag]

9 hours ago, scootmandu said:

Our storm total from the last storm was exactly 3 inches. A neighbor had 3.4." That map of storm totals had very incomplete data from Long Island, and seemingly no reports from northwest Suffolk County. On the map that was posted we are just east of Northport, bordering LI Sound. I saw no stations listed there.

It's CoCoRaHs observers... I'll update 4 day with what is available at 9A today.  Also will try to find another radar-sensor resource and try to complete the loop at that time. BUT ground truth as yours helps to add perspective that substantial rain (2+) occurred on parts of LI as well. Thank you. 

This Sunday night-Tuesday night looking good for widespread 1/2-4" in our subforum as EC is speeding up. My own confidence on this occurrence is 75-80%.  Only the GEFS is slow.  Think we'll see WPC beefing up in near future D5-7. Looks like spotty excessive (5+) Appalachians to the east coast coming this weekend-early next week

Am still speculating that we're way overdue for a pure tropical event here at the end of the month but can't happen with westerly flow across the country.  

[bluewave]

This was a North Shore special like all the other events this summer. So the highest drought areas along the South Shore didn't get much relief. It was the typical .25 to .50 event for much of the South Shore.

 

COCORAHS             

...Nassau County...
Syosset                      2.20 in   0840 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Levittown                    1.84 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Oyster Bay                   1.53 in   0815 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Hicksville                   1.52 in   0827 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Muttontown                   1.51 in   0840 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Syosset                      1.38 in   0825 AM 09/06   COOP                 
Great Neck                   1.15 in   0828 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Muttontown                   0.95 in   0839 PM 09/06   AWS                  
East Hills                   0.84 in   0625 PM 09/06   AWS                  
Carle Place                  0.81 in   0820 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Searingtown                  0.71 in   0543 PM 09/06   AWS                  
Farmingdale                  0.66 in   0815 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
North Merrick                0.63 in   0816 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
North Massapequa             0.55 in   0836 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
North Massapequa             0.52 in   0828 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Wantagh                      0.41 in   0829 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Herricks                     0.37 in   0830 AM 09/06   COCORAHS             
Valley Stream                0.37 in   0836 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Atoc - Plainview             0.34 in   0745 PM 09/06   RAWS                 
Wantagh                      0.34 in   0835 PM 09/06   NYSM                 
Locust Valley 0.3 E          0.29 in   0845 AM 09/06   COCORAHS             
Merrick                      0.28 in   0825 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Bellmore                     0.25 in   0840 PM 09/06   AWS              

 

Suffolk County...
Northport                    2.03 in   0520 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Shirley                      1.79 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Smithtown                    1.63 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Dix Hills                    1.61 in   0824 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Greenlawn                    1.59 in   0821 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Shirley Airport              1.54 in   0814 PM 09/06   ASOS                 
Stony Brook                  1.46 in   0835 PM 09/06   NYSM                 
Baiting Hollow               1.24 in   0840 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Northport 1.6 NNE            1.08 in   0804 AM 09/06   COCORAHS             
Upton                        1.08 in   0944 PM 09/06   Official NWS Obs     
Kings Park                   1.02 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
SMITHTOWN                    0.98 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Miller Place                 0.97 in   0825 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Stony Brook                  0.94 in   0839 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Patchogue                    0.87 in   0836 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
North Patchogue              0.81 in   0829 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Centerport                   0.80 in   0700 AM 09/06   COOP                 
Blue Point                   0.80 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Ridge                        0.78 in   0835 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Blue Point                   0.76 in   0837 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
3.6 NE Calverton             0.75 in   0500 PM 09/06   COOP                 
Sayville                     0.71 in   0839 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Blue Point                   0.69 in   0835 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Montauk Airport              0.67 in   0754 PM 09/06   ASOS                 
Islip Airport                0.65 in   0756 PM 09/06   ASOS                 
Fishers Island               0.62 in   0800 AM 09/06   COCORAHS             
Nys Portable No. 1           0.57 in   0754 PM 09/06   RAWS                 
West Islip                   0.57 in   0824 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Remsenburg                   0.57 in   0825 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Orient                       0.57 in   0838 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Sagtikos Parkway             0.55 in   0625 PM 09/06   AWS                  
Westhampton Airport          0.55 in   0753 PM 09/06   ASOS                 
Mount Sinai                  0.53 in   0400 PM 09/06   COOP                 
West Babylon                 0.53 in   0828 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
N. Babylon                   0.52 in   0840 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
1 WNW Wading River           0.51 in   0835 PM 09/06   AWS                  
Brookhaven                   0.50 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Farmingdale Airport          0.42 in   0800 PM 09/06   ASOS                 
East Hampton                 0.42 in   0829 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Eastport                     0.41 in   0445 PM 09/06   RAWS                 
Southold                     0.41 in   0835 PM 09/06   NYSM                 
North Babylon                0.37 in   0822 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
East Setauket                0.37 in   0838 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
Southold                     0.34 in   0825 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
St James 1.7 W               0.33 in   0700 AM 09/06   COCORAHS             
Northport                    0.27 in   0836 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
West Gilgo Beach             0.25 in   0830 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
1 NNE Watermill              0.25 in   0840 PM 09/06   AWS     

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 75degs.(68/82) or +5.

Reached 74 here yesterday.

Today:   77-82, wind e. to ne., variable clouds, 65 tomorrow AM.

1" Monday.     Home-grown low 9/20-22 seems like the  only tropical  threat  anytime soon  to EC.

But close call for  Bermuda:        Converted to  60mph/>1"  tonight into Friday AM.   These are in Km/hr  and  mm.

66*(80%RH) here at 7am.     75*  at Noon.      Reached 78* here around 4pm.         74* at 7pm.

[SACRUS]

67 / 59 and sun shining.  Cleared out and drying out.  Onshore flow keep temps capped near or at 80 for most.  Ridge builds into east coast starting Fri (9/9) and through the weekend with onshore or southerly flow.  The weekend looks very good , warm low mid 80s wth perhaps a few warmer spot upper 80s on sat. 

Ridging is stubborn along the EC as the Rockies ridge is anchored out west. In between a front and trough cuts off and is slow to push through the east and into the north east Tue (9/13) - Wed (9/14) with out next shot of rain.  Mon (9/12) depending on clouds and any spotty showers could be sneaky warm. 

 

Beyond there the Rockies ridge  is forced east and rising heights into the east towards the end of next week and weekend with next shot of late season heat (especially for the warmer spots) in the 9/17 - 9/21 period.

[SACRUS]