September 2022

[bluewave]

Fiona will probably be the strongest storm to hit Nova Scotia.

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Fiona will probably be the strongest storm to hit Nova Scotia.

 

 

 

Almost certainly, the ongoing marine heatwave has put a category 3 scenario on the table for Nova Scotia. Without it, one would see a weaker but still potent storm.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Almost certainly, the ongoing marine heatwave has put a category 3 scenario on the table for Nova Scotia. Without it, one would see a weaker but still potent storm.

Yeah, Sandy would have been stronger had it occurred a month earlier with a record warm pool like this. 
 

 

 

[nycwinter]

what a blustery day for september my hands were cold i should have worn gloves..

[JustinRP37]

The next few weeks are going to be stressful for linemen on the east coast. A lot of eastern states have sent help to Puerto Rico and now eastern Canada will need a ton of linemen to repair the damage after tomorrow. This will quickly be followed by the need for linemen most likely in Florida. A quiet season suddenly turned into a very LOUD and COSTLY season within the blink of an eye. People don't remember a season for the number of storms, then remember them for the severity and this week along could prove to be one of the costliest weather disasters we have seen in quite some time. Fiona will likely be Canada's costliest and most damaging storm of all time. 

[MJO812]

TD 9 will be named Ian

 

Alot of wicked storms with the letter I

[donsutherland1]

In many parts of the region, today was the coolest day since late Spring. In New York City's Central Park, the mercury topped out at 63°. The last time the high temperature was at least as cool was May 8th when the temperature reached 58°. Newark's high temperature of 64° was the lowest since May 8th when the high was just 62°.

Select low temperatures from this morning included:

Boston: 50° (coolest since May 26: 50°)
New York City: 51° (coolest since May 10: 51°)
Newark: 50° (coolest since May 10: 50°)
Philadelphia: 56° (coolest since May 26: 54°)

After another very cool start, tomorrow will be somewhat warmer with readings reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. Sunday and Monday will see readings return to near to somewhat above normal levels.

In part due to Merbok's impact on the jet stream, September will likely end with cooler than normal conditions. The cool weather could continue into the start of October.

In southern Florida, near record and record heat prevailed. Miami reached 95°, which broke the daily mark of 94° from 1943. Today's 95° temperature was the second latest on record. It was also the second such temperature in September, which tied the monthly record set in 1989 and tied in 2019 and 2021. Florida faces a hurricane risk next week.

Hurricane Fiona will make landfall in Atlantic Canada tomorrow. With a contribution from the ongoing marine heatwave, Fiona will likely do so as a category 2 hurricane. Canada's lowest barometric pressure on record could be challenged. The powerful storm could also sweep a surge of warm air northward along Greenland's west coast sending temperatures in some areas up to near 50°.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +14.80 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.341 today.

On September 21 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.476 (RMM). The September 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.336 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.9° (0.7° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, Sandy would have been stronger had it occurred a month earlier with a record warm pool like this. 
 

 

 

Would it have been an actual hurricane if it occurred a month earlier?

Another question, a month earlier would it have taken a more "regular" N to NNE track?

I'm still highly suspicious that NYC can ever get a direct hit by a major hurricane-- our geography and the geometry of the coast forbids it.  I can see the eye of such a storm going into southern NJ or central or eastern LI but NYC? Not really.  Maybe eastern parts of the city, like JFK (but that would still be less likely than one hitting Nova Scotia), but that would be the closest I could ever see the eye of a major hurricane getting.  A hurricane would have to travel inland at least some distance before hitting Manhattan directly.  I actually think a Cat 3 hitting Nova Scotia is more likely than such a storm directly hitting Manhattan.  One hitting Nova Scotia is probably more likely than one hitting any part of the city-- including Queens and perhaps even Nassau County.

 

By the way did you hear about the new study done at Queens College showing that people who were in the womb during Sandy are much more likely to suffer from depression and ADHD today?  It was a significant difference!

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

The next few weeks are going to be stressful for linemen on the east coast. A lot of eastern states have sent help to Puerto Rico and now eastern Canada will need a ton of linemen to repair the damage after tomorrow. This will quickly be followed by the need for linemen most likely in Florida. A quiet season suddenly turned into a very LOUD and COSTLY season within the blink of an eye. People don't remember a season for the number of storms, then remember them for the severity and this week along could prove to be one of the costliest weather disasters we have seen in quite some time. Fiona will likely be Canada's costliest and most damaging storm of all time. 

Whats the previous record holder-- Hazel?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

In many parts of the region, today was the coolest day since late Spring. In New York City's Central Park, the mercury topped out at 63°. The last time the high temperature was at least as cool was May 8th when the temperature reached 58°. Newark's high temperature of 64° was the lowest since May 8th when the high was just 62°.

Select low temperatures from this morning included:

Boston: 50° (coolest since May 26: 50°)
New York City: 51° (coolest since May 10: 51°)
Newark: 50° (coolest since May 10: 50°)
Philadelphia: 56° (coolest since May 26: 54°)

After another very cool start, tomorrow will be somewhat warmer with readings reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. Sunday and Monday will see readings return to near to somewhat above normal levels.

In part due to Merbok's impact on the jet stream, September will likely end with cooler than normal conditions. The cool weather could continue into the start of October.

In southern Florida, near record and record heat prevailed. Miami reached 95°, which broke the daily mark of 94° from 1943. Today's 95° temperature was the second latest on record. It was also the second such temperature in September, which tied the monthly record set in 1989 and tied in 2019 and 2021. Florida faces a hurricane risk next week.

Hurricane Fiona will make landfall in Atlantic Canada tomorrow. With a contribution from the ongoing marine heatwave, Fiona will likely do so as a category 2 hurricane. Canada's lowest barometric pressure on record could be challenged. The powerful storm could also sweep a surge of warm air northward along Greenland's west coast sending temperatures in some areas up to near 50°.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +14.80 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.341 today.

On September 21 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.476 (RMM). The September 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.336 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.9° (0.7° above normal).

 

Maybe NYC will get into the 40s tonight

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

TD 9 will be named Ian

 

Alot of wicked storms with the letter I

Thats what I thought too when I saw that Hermine went to the wave off the African coast.

 

[Tatamy]

54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Would it have been an actual hurricane if it occurred a month earlier?

Another question, a month earlier would it have taken a more "regular" N to NNE track?

I'm still highly suspicious that NYC can ever get a direct hit by a major hurricane-- our geography and the geometry of the coast forbids it.  I can see the eye of such a storm going into southern NJ or central or eastern LI but NYC? Not really.  Maybe eastern parts of the city, like JFK (but that would still be less likely than one hitting Nova Scotia), but that would be the closest I could ever see the eye of a major hurricane getting.  A hurricane would have to travel inland at least some distance before hitting Manhattan directly.  I actually think a Cat 3 hitting Nova Scotia is more likely than such a storm directly hitting Manhattan.  One hitting Nova Scotia is probably more likely than one hitting any part of the city-- including Queens and perhaps even Nassau County.

 

By the way did you hear about the new study done at Queens College showing that people who were in the womb during Sandy are much more likely to suffer from depression and ADHD today?  It was a significant difference!

 

Regarding your statement about NYC not likely to get hit by a major hurricane, not true.  In 1976 and 1985 Hurricanes Belle and Gloria made landfall on the south shore of Nassau County.  Both were Cat 1’s.  Belle at Jones Beach and Gloria further east towards Massapequa.  If you can go down to Coney Island or any other beach and look out over the ocean then yes a hurricane and a major one at that can hit NYC or anywhere else in the region.  Sandy has been described as a one in a 500 year storm and Fiona may end up in the same category.  The fact that the east coast of North America has been hit by two such storms in ten years should be very concerning.  You can argue that they were not “true” hurricanes however the cost of the damage caused by these speaks for itself.  In any case if the right synoptic conditions present themselves then yes NYC can get hit by a Major hurricane.

[Cfa]

It’s good to see the NHC learned from Sandy by issuing Hurricane Warnings for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Regarding your statement about NYC not likely to get hit by a major hurricane, not true.  In 1976 and 1985 Hurricanes Belle and Gloria made landfall on the south shore of Nassau County.  Both were Cat 1’s.  Belle at Jones Beach and Gloria further east towards Massapequa.  If you can go down to Coney Island or any other beach and look out over the ocean then yes a hurricane and a major one at that can hit NYC or anywhere else in the region.  Sandy has been described as a one in a 500 year storm and Fiona may end up in the same category.  The fact that the east coast of North America has been hit by two such storms in ten years should be very concerning.  You can argue that they were not “true” hurricanes however the cost of the damage caused by these speaks for itself.  In any case if the right synoptic conditions present themselves then yes NYC can get hit by a Major hurricane.

I was looking at the one from the 1800s that hugged the coast and thought we'd need something like that but that was so far out of the ordinary it seems to be unlikely.

One thing that makes me pessimistic about it (maybe I should say optimistic lol) is that it always seems like we get these fronts that push these storms out to sea or the storms go into the southeast.  It seems like we need a perfect thread the needle scenario to have a storm bend back into the coast up here.  I've seen both Nova Scotia and Newfoundland get hit by hurricanes several times though.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, Cfa said:

It’s good to see the NHC learned from Sandy by issuing Hurricane Warnings for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Yes that was an important change!

This is going to be stronger for them than Sandy was for us!

I wonder if the storm surge will be over 10 feet?

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe NYC will get into the 40s tonight

There’s a real chance. I suspect that Fiona’s expanding circulation will help drive cool air into the region.

40s in September have become infrequent. Since 2000, only 2006, 2009, 2013, and 2020 have seen the temperature dip below 50.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Cfa said:

It’s good to see the NHC learned from Sandy by issuing Hurricane Warnings for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

I believe Environment Canada issued those warnings.

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/hurricane-forecasts-facts.html

 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Tatamy said:

Regarding your statement about NYC not likely to get hit by a major hurricane, not true.  In 1976 and 1985 Hurricanes Belle and Gloria made landfall on the south shore of Nassau County.  Both were Cat 1’s.  Belle at Jones Beach and Gloria further east towards Massapequa.  If you can go down to Coney Island or any other beach and look out over the ocean then yes a hurricane and a major one at that can hit NYC or anywhere else in the region.  Sandy has been described as a one in a 500 year storm and Fiona may end up in the same category.  The fact that the east coast of North America has been hit by two such storms in ten years should be very concerning.  You can argue that they were not “true” hurricanes however the cost of the damage caused by these speaks for itself.  In any case if the right synoptic conditions present themselves then yes NYC can get hit by a Major hurricane.

NYC can definitely get hit by a major Hurricane in the right setup. 1938 could’ve hit 100 miles further west, Gloria could’ve been a real major if it wasn’t annihilated by dry air, etc. The 1893 Hog Island Hurricane may have been a major. We’re due for a stretch again like 1938-1960 where we had numerous strikes nearby. 

[dmillz25]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe NYC will get into the 40s tonight

Already down to 52

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

NYC can definitely get hit by a major Hurricane in the right setup. 1938 could’ve hit 100 miles further west, Gloria could’ve been a real major if it wasn’t annihilated by dry air, etc. The 1893 Hog Island Hurricane may have been a major. We’re due for a stretch again like 1938-1960 where we had numerous strikes nearby. 

That Hog Island Hurricane would have been a huge impact for us if it was stronger.  1938 I wonder about if it went on the same trajectory further west would it be as strong since it would be scraping the coast or would its forward speed keep it from losing any strength by friction from land?

 

How come no one has been talking about this storm for next week and posting maps, etc?  On the news they've been talking a tropical impact for next week.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

There’s a real chance. I suspect that Fiona’s expanding circulation will help drive cool air into the region.

40s in September have become infrequent. Since 2000, only 2006, 2009, 2013, and 2020 have seen the temperature dip below 50.

Wow, I thought it was normal to have at least one low temp in the 40s after the equinox.  Highs in the 60s and Lows in the 40s.

[Tatamy]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That Hog Island Hurricane would have been a huge impact for us if it was stronger.  1938 I wonder about if it went on the same trajectory further west would it be as strong since it would be scraping the coast or would its forward speed keep it from losing any strength by friction from land?

 

How come no one has been talking about this storm for next week and posting maps, etc?  On the news they've been talking a tropical impact for next week.

There’s a separate thread for that under tropical headquarters.

[Tatamy]

33 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Already down to 52

Out by me we have actually decoupled with calm winds and a temperature of 46.  We might even get below 40.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Out by me we have actually decoupled with calm winds and a temperature of 46.  We might even get below 40.

They're talking about frost in the Poconos.

Did you hear reports about trees going down?  I lost a large sugar maple in the Poconos that brought down other, newer trees.  I've also heard a report on the news of a large tree coming down in New York.

[dmillz25]

49 here

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

NYC can definitely get hit by a major Hurricane in the right setup. 1938 could’ve hit 100 miles further west, Gloria could’ve been a real major if it wasn’t annihilated by dry air, etc. The 1893 Hog Island Hurricane may have been a major. We’re due for a stretch again like 1938-1960 where we had numerous strikes nearby. 

It's only a matter of time with the bathtub waters we've seen around here lately. 

[Tatamy]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

They're talking about frost in the Poconos.

Did you hear reports about trees going down?  I lost a large sugar maple in the Poconos that brought down other, newer trees.  I've also heard a report on the news of a large tree coming down in New York.

Winds out here were not that especially strong today.  We maxed at 32 mph out here.  The strongest winds that I was aware of was along the south shore of LI- Fire Island in particular where Fire Island Pines maxed at over 50 mph.  I am not aware of any issues with trees down out this way.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

Winds out here were not that especially strong today.  We maxed at 32 mph out here.  The strongest winds that I was aware of was along the south shore of LI- Fire Island in particular where Fire Island Pines maxed at over 50 mph.  I am not aware of any issues with trees down out this way.

They're saying the drought made the trees weak.

I heard more about the one in NY, a tree came down on a car in Queens with the driver still inside.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

It's only a matter of time with the bathtub waters we've seen around here lately. 

I used to think that too, but I'm not so sure.  I've read research going in both directions about warmer waters causing more TCs and also fewer TCs but the ones that occur are stronger ones.

There's another consideration-- what if the warmer waters are actually changing the predominant path of TCs?  East coast TC seem to have gotten less frequent than they were in the 30s through the 50s.  Now we seem to have more Gulf Coast TC and also the warmest waters seem to be further out in the ocean so perhaps that's why they seem to hit eastern Canada more frequently now?

We just got out of a + AMO period and we didn't have nearly as many east coast hits as we had as the last time we were one of these periods.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

49 here

My space heater is on lol