bluewave Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 14 hours ago, forkyfork said: it's an anticyclonic wave break which doesn't pinch off the ridge. so after that ends we get a retrograde pattern and probably more heat beyond day 10 The AWB produces a near record 500mb height anomaly just south of Greenland. So the -NAO could have some lasting power. It could be another case of needing record blocking to get some cooler to closer to normal temperatures around here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Yep. Get ready for a see-saw T Regime during the next 15 days. Today's 14C+ 850mb T and 5700m THK becomes the 0C and 5445m THK around the 23rd and then back up to 19C! 850mb T and 5700m THK again for the first days of October. Supposedly results in this: It was 93 in early October 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 On 9/17/2022 at 5:34 PM, Allsnow said: Decent cool shots coming after mid week. The heat might finally be over until next year I think I see the same post every 10 days? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 third summer peak warmth will finally be over following the cold front passage later this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Tomorrow will be a very warm day with temperatures reaching the middle and upper 80s across the region. A few of the hotter spots could hit 90°. Somewhat cooler air will arrive afterward and then a sharp cold shot is likely after midweek. In the longer range, there remains greater than usual uncertainty, as extratropical Merbok, which pounded the Bering Sea area, could impact the jet stream. Occasionally, such cyclones have set in motion a pattern evolution that has dislodged cold air that pours into the continental U.S. 1-2 weeks later. A classic example from the far more intense Nuri occurred in 2014. Nuri bombed out as it battered the Bering Sea region on November 9. Very cold air moved into the northeastern U.S. starting on November 15. Near record and even some record low temperatures occurred from November 18-22. Merbok will not reach Nuri's intensity, but the scenario of a strong cold shot to close out September and open October is plausible. In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September. On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +31.91 today. That broke the daily record of +28.76, which was set in 2013. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.911 today. On September 16 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.220 (RMM). The September 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.482 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.9° (1.7° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 9/18 EWR: 85 New Brnswck: 85 BLM: 85 PHL: 85 TEB: 85 LGA: 85 JFK: 84 NYC: 83 ACY: 82 TTN: 82 ISP: 81 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 85 today in Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 A brisk sea breeze, temperatures in the lower 80s, and abnormally warm ocean temperatures made for a great beach day. Some photos from Robert Moses State Park from this afternoon. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be variably cloudy and very warm. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 85° Newark: 88° Philadelphia: 88° It will turn cooler tomorrow. A sharp cold shot is likely after midweek. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 75.1°; 15-Year: 76.1° Newark: 30-Year: 76.6°; 15-Year: 77.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.9°; 15-Year: 78.7° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 It looks like the heat may peak today in the upper 80s instead of the mid 90s which was forecast last week. So I guess this counts as making slow progress toward fall. NYC could see the first lower 50s of the season by next weekend as a stronger blocking pattern sets up. New run for today Old run much warmer Cool down for later in week 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 69degs.(61/77) or +2. Month to date is 72.8[+1.4]. Should be 71.6[+1.6] by the 27th. Reached 84 here yesterday. Today: 82-86, wind w., clouding up, rain by 6pm?, 67 tomorrow AM. 70*(85%RH) here at 7am. 71* at 9am. 77* at Noon. 80* at 1pm. Reached 84* at 4pm. Quick Rain at 5:30pm. 72* at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It looks like the heat may peak today in the upper 80s instead of the mid 90s which was forecast last week. So I guess this counts as making slow progress toward fall. NYC could see the first lower 50s of the season by next weekend as a stronger blocking pattern sets up. New run for today Old run much warmer Cool down for later in week Never trust the GFS with temps in the LR-seems to have a warm bias in the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Never trust the GFS with temps in the LR-seems to have a warm bias in the summer That’s a given but the GEM and Euro were just as hot. The blocking verified stronger. So we get a +10 day instead of +15 to +20. That’s what passes for cooler in our warming climate. Almanac for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ September 19, 2022 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 77 93 in 1983 62 in 1987 Min Temperature M 60 70 in 2016 44 in 1959 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 No place for feelings in science, but I have a feeling this is going to be an interesting fall/winter one way or another. With the strong SH stratospheric cooling and the climate system’s tendency toward balance, maybe we get some stratospheric warming up here and a weakened PV (there was some correlation shown in an article linked a ways back, was interesting if nothing else). Or maybe the extra water vapor broadly keeps things slightly warmer. In other threads here I saw some speculation about a -NAO Dec with a potential fast start to winter (perhaps front loaded), but I remember last Dec originally being forecasted cold and, yeah big nope. Prob smarter to always assume we’ll be in shorts and flip flops Xmas day lol. One things for sure, after this consistently hot summer I’m well prepared to enjoy some cool crisp air, so I’m looking forward to the cold front and cooldown however long it lasts. Great hiking weather and my favorite time of year to be outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 74/ 64 and on way to upper 80s. Clouds likely in the way of a late season hot 90 at the warmer spots. Already area of clouds and showers pushing into C-PA and should arrive here by 12:30 - 2:00PM (mainly the clouds not many showers). Outside chance of 90 but likely capped 87-89. Riding the rim of the huge ridge centered over the TX/OK border and with it a wave of low pressure will bring some rain/storms into NY state and New England Mon PM Tue (9/20. Warm back up Wed (9/21) and again outside chance of a over performer coupled with recent dryness. Other wise the front and with rain / storms will cap Thu even with 850s of >18c into the upper 70s low 80s. By the end of this week and coming weekend, the coolest air of the season Fri (9/23) - Sun (9/25) arrives. 40s for inland areas at night. Warms back up by next Mon (9/26) before the next cool down towards the end of next week / Sep. Beyond there do we head back into a relatively overall warmer by a bit after the open of next month with riding pushing into the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 My kid is at school in Brockport and she said the thunder was making the ground shake, it's dark like nighttime and the rain is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Noon Roundup New Brnswck: 86 BLM: 85 EWR: 84 LGA: 84 PHL: 84 TEB: 84* ACY: 83 JFK: 83 NYC: 83 ISP: 82 TTN: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 About an hour before clouds and maybe some showers push into W-NJ and 2 before moving into the NYC area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Currently 85 here............... DP 61/RH 45% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 88 degrees here right now. Had a high temp of 85 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 85.8 high, 84 now with much more clouds than sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Anyone else having issues with RadarScope Pro today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 87F Most in the mid-upper 80s. If it weren't for the clouds I think many would've seen low 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 21 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Anyone else having issues with RadarScope Pro today? Workin fine for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Ewr 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 29 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Ewr 88 We probably would have been around that up here too without the shower that passed through. Hit 85 before the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 86 the high here, now down to 80 with a sea breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Upton only going with 30% chance of rain but radar looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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