Rtd208 Posted September 5, 2022 Author Share Posted September 5, 2022 Flood Watch issued here from Tuesday morning thru Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 5, 2022 Author Share Posted September 5, 2022 Day 1 & 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Strongest warm pool on record for this time of year east of New England. That spot is turning into a hurricane magnet recently with Danielle an the forecast for Earl. Pretty impressive record SST warmth surrounding the small area of La Niña cooler SSTs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 73degs.(67/80) or +2. Reached just 82 here yesterday. Today: 79-85, wind s. to e.(breezy), variable clouds, rain late-Flood Watch starts. ************ NBM, CMC, EURO, SREF are 1.0"-1.5". GFS and ICON are 4.0"! ********** EARL seems safely UP UP & AWAY: 74*(88%RH) here at 7am. 77* at 9am. 80* at 11am. still 80* at Noon. Reached 81*(7&%RH) at 2pm-feels like 86*. 75* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 93 imby yesterday wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Today may be the last shot in a while at upper 80s to around 90 for the warm spots in NJ. Unusually strong -NAO for early September will cool things down going forward. So expect more comfortable highs in the 70s this week before 80s return by next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 51 minutes ago, Rjay said: Extremely unlikely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 13 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Extremely unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 The position of this stationary front as we go through the day is going to be a major player in terms of where the convective activity sets up. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 06z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 5, 2022 Author Share Posted September 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Tatamy said: 06z Euro It seems to me the models are trying to resolve where the heaviest rain/traning sets up but we really won't know that until it's occuring. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and cooler. Rain and thunderstorms are likely, especially later today and tomorrow. A general 1.00”-2.00” of rain is likely with locally higher amounts. Southern New England will see a general 1.5”-3.00” rainfall with some higher amounts. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Central New Jersey southward will see warmer temperatures. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 81° Newark: 84° Philadelphia: 87° Somewhat cooler than normal conditions are likely through Thursday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 79.9°; 15-Year: 80.0° Newark: 30-Year: 81.3°; 15-Year: 81.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.4° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Cloudy here, 72F/DP 68/RH 89%...............topped out at 86F yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Just now, Rtd208 said: It seems to me the models are trying to resolve where the heaviest rain/traning sets up but we really won't know that until it's occuring. If you look at this run and the position of the stationary front it appears that the Euro is focusing on both the position of the front itself along with terrain influences in this region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 5, 2022 Author Share Posted September 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Tatamy said: If you look at this run and the position of the stationary front it appears that the Euro is focusing on both the position of the front itself along with terrain influences in this region. We are just going to have to wait and see how things set up today into tonight. Regardless I think everyone sees at least 1-1.5" of rainfall. Where the highest amounts occur is the big question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 The pictures posted below are one example of how an outflow boundary or frontal zone produces convection. This took place by me yesterday evening over a 30 minute period. I picked up 0.25” from this feature. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 74 / 69 with some sun poking through. Majority of the steady rain to fall late today and Tue (9/6) - into Wed (9/7) looking like a solid 2+ for most spots. Rockies ridge locked in ad the Western Atlantic Ridge builds west this coming weekend. Drier but still cool Thu (9/8) more humid onshore / southerly flow by this Friday (9/9) and into the weekend. Front is slow to clear by early next week and cutos off west of the region, likely comes through at some point next Tue (9/13) / Wed (9/14) perhaps more heavy rainfall .). Longer range Rockies ridge pushes east into the plains and GL by mid month and overall warm / with building heights for the second half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Today may be the last shot in a while at upper 80s to around 90 for the warm spots in NJ. Unusually strong -NAO for early September will cool things down going forward. So expect more comfortable highs in the 70s this week before 80s return by next weekend. It will be interesting to see and track, but the Rockies Ridge may be forced east by the middle of next week and setup more ridging towards the end of next week / next weekend (mid month) timeframe 9/16. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 In the middle of a late season heatwave 4 years ago (2018) just a year after the cold (2017) labor day with many upper 40s/low 50s. 1985 also late season heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Labor Days of the past EWR High / Low (rain) 9/6 2010: 80 / 56 9/5 2011: 85 / 72 (T) 9/3 2012: 78 / 72 (0.08) 9/2 2013: 83 / 72 (0.14) 9/1 2014: 92 / 74 9/7 2015: 95 / 65 9/5 2016: 86 / 58 9/4 2017 : 82 / 58 9/3 2018 : 95 / 76 9/2 2019 : 77 / 70 (1.19) 9/7 2020 : 79 / 65 9/6 2021 : 86 / 70 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: We are just going to have to wait and see how things set up today into tonight. Regardless I think everyone sees at least 1-1.5" of rainfall. Where the highest amounts occur is the big question. I agree with Tatamay on this one . I’m thinking oragraphic lifting will have an influence for the folks in the hills. There will be some lollies there for a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Added CoCoRaHs sample for the past day. I'll have to withdraw CT as possible miss on heavy rainfall (only 1/2"). E LI still in the low chance mix for 1/2 or less??? Usually there are bands of exceedingly heavy and surprisingly light. As discussed by others earlier, surface convergence will be a big driver on where exactly widespread 1-4" occurs. I still like our NYC subforum for this and now it looks like the rains will continue into Wednesday due to the position of the surface low and inflow. Interesting that modeling through 06z/5 is focusing heaviest R+ north of I80 while largest PW of near 2" is modeled near I78 south. I could be wrong but it may end up that ultimately biggest rains I80 south Tuesday into Wednesday where a bit greater instability and higher PW as well as potential for surface convergence via front and better e-se gradient inflow in that area. 7" max seems to me to be a confident outlook for a tiny portion of our subforum. Where? I saw some modeling expressing potential for isolated 10" in CT. The idea... someone should receive excessive near 7" rainfall. Through 12z/5 here in this part of Wantage only 0.21, but digital radar and wxunderground obs as well as CoCoRaHs support narrow bands of 1-3" already occurred through 12z/5. Sunday-Monday looks pretty big to me as well as midwest CF arrives...possibly stalling for a while with PW of 2+" nosed into the region along the east coast. That's low priority compared to what is at hand. 1004A/5 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The Euro, GEM, and HRRR now keep the axis of the heaviest rains north of l-78. So this could be another case of the SE Ridge/WAR flexing closer to storm time. It will be interesting to see how this turns out. the 12z nam is coming north with the second wave of rain on tuesday which helps us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the 12z nam is coming north with the second wave of rain on tuesday which helps us The second batch of of heavy rain may be our best shot as per the 12z HRRR. But there may be a bit of a dry slot for spots between the two areas. Hard to know until nowcast time. Maybe the models are overdoing the dry slot and we get more of a filled in look joining the band to the north and south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 17 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the 12z nam is coming north with the second wave of rain on tuesday which helps us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: The second batch of of heavy rain may be our best shot as per the 12z HRRR. But there may be a bit of a dry slot for spots between the two areas. Hard to know until nowcast time. Maybe the models are overdoing the dry slot and we get more of a filled in look joining the band to the north and south. It's our only shot imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 79/74, nasty out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Another CT jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now