Tatamy Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, MANDA said: No rainfall yet here today. Was not far away just to my north. Hoping for at least .25" - .50" overnight to prime the soil so to speak. New batch of showers blossoming on radar over eastern PA and moving slowly ENE. Nothing imminent for my area but hopefully something can meander through overnight. The activity over eastern PA relates to an outflow boundary in the area. I have received 0.15” from it so far. Right now the area to be for heavy rain in looks to be in the southern area of SI and adjacent central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 JUST MISSING ME HERE IN CI AT 8PM: DECENT LIGHTNING SOMEWHERE, JUST LIGHTING UP THE CLOUDS HERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Lots of thunder by me, but only .08 in the rain bucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Under partly to mostly sunny skies, parts of the region saw temperatures surge into the lower 90s. High temperatures included: Baltimore: 91° New York City: 90° Newark: 92° Philadelphia: 91° Washington, DC: 91° A somewhat cooler than normal and wet period now lies ahead. That period will likely extend through Thursday. A significant rainfall is likely from tomorrow into Wednesday. A general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall appears likely with locally higher amounts. The ongoing intense heatwave will continue into Wednesday (and Thursday at some locations) in the West. Today's preliminary high temperatures included: Burbank, CA: 110° (tied record from 1984) ***Potential new all-time low of 83°*** Camarillo, CA: 106° (old record: 93°, 1961) ***tied September record*** Casper: 100° (old record: 96°, 1998) ***new September record*** Cheyenne: 94° (old record: 93°, 1960) Death Valley, CA: 124° (old record: 122°, 2020) ***Record 4th 120° or above temperature in September*** Great Falls: 94° (tied record set in 1998 and tied in 2001 and 2003) Lander, WY: 99° (old record: 94°, 1995 and 2019) ***new September record*** Long Beach, CA: 109° (old record: 107°, 1988) Pocatello, ID: 97° (old record: 96°, 1998) Reno: 104° (old record: 102°, 2020) ***new September record*** Salt Lake City: 102° (old record: 98°, 1950, 2017 and 2019) Sheridan, WY: 102° Casper's previous latest 100° temperature was August 12, 2018. In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September. On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +16.28 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.186 today. On September 2 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.586 (RMM). The September 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.709 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 9/4 EWR: 93 New Brnswck: 91 PHL: 91 NYC: 90 BLM: 89 TTN: 89 LGA: 89 ACY: 88 TEB: 87 JFK: 86 ISP: 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Attaching some wx underground #'s, verifying digital output since about Noon/4. All seems on target for widespread 1/2-4" rains today-Tue night (iso 7) and again next Sun-Mon (except not indicating iso max amount at this time). Am not buying any model delays for late next weekend and or shunting to our west. Front should crawl eastward through here late next weekend with high PW in excess of 2". While I've only had 0.05 in this part of Wantage, you can see the variability up to 2+" in the available data at this resolution for PA/NJ, NYS-CT. Have also seen /decent amounts near Perth Amboy, under 3/4". Credit to Weather Underground. I'll add some CoCoRAHS 24 hour totals around 10-11A/Monday. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 On board early here…heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Nam lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 WAR is really flexing some muscle here as it builds in front of Earl all across the se, middle Atlantic, and up to about us here in the NYC Metro. Precipitation likely to under perform through tomorrow night and temperatures likely to over perform. I'm not even so sure how well coastal areas will do on Tuesday at this point. Central Park got their 25th 90+ of the season probably looking at 1-4 more. WX/PT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam lol And the beat goes on. Can’t win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: WAR is really flexing some muscle here as it builds in front of Earl all across the se, middle Atlantic, and up to about us here in the NYC Metro. Precipitation likely to under perform through tomorrow night and temperatures likely to over perform. I'm not even so sure how well coastal areas will do on Tuesday at this point. Central Park got their 25th 90+ of the season probably looking at 1-4 more. WX/PT The coast crisps. Expect little to nothing here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 44 minutes ago, Allsnow said: On board early here…heavy rain I picked up a little over a half inch with a heavy downpour earlier this evening. Got lucky since most areas didn't get much. It was a nice watering for the garden. Glad I got that early since there's no guarantee that monday night into tuesday will deliver. NAM just cut way back on the amounts as Stormlover74 just showed. It's just 1 model run and I'm not saying 0z NAM will be right about the event being disappointing, but it certainly wouldn't be shocking if that happens since almost every potential heavy rain event has fallen apart during this horrible drought. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 This was the 18z euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 3k nam through hour 48 lol 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 South shore LI drought continues. Trends not encouraging 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: South shore LI drought continues. Trends not encouraging Not at all This is insane 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not at all This is insane It’ll all be gone by the next run. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Not at all This is insane It could wiggle back. Still have a little time before the main show arrives. Anyones guess at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 You can already see how it’s north. LI will see little, if any rain in this set up 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Upton’s AFD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1045 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022 .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... For Mon...a bit of a mid lvl dry punch is progged to move in from the south. In addition, dynamics are limited, and instability is likely to be fairly low with mainly bkn-ovc skies. Even if the 5000ft cu deck isn`t solid, the subtropical jet is expected to produce a thick cirrus canopy. Water vapor shows the subtropical Pacific tap into the system. As a result, the modeling has backed off on pcpn amounts and this seems reasonable attm. Fcst indicates 20-50 or so pops thru the day, with the best chances across the north on the periphery of the h7 dry nose. Divergence around the h2 jet lvl will allow for pcpn to focus invof a slow moving boundary Mon ngt and Tue. This will be the area to watch for hvy rainfall totals. The models have been consistent with the signal, but not with the exact timing and placement. All areas should see substantial rain with the favorable jet dynamics, but the flooding rains are expected to be more narrowly focused. With the timing still in the Mon ngt-Tue period, along with the continued model uncertainty (and nwd trend in the NAM), will continue highlighting the risk with the HWO and not issue a watch attm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Just now, Rmine1 said: another BUST for LI Que? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Good to see that the RGEM that Rjay just posted is still showing a good soaking for everyone. Hopefully tonight's NAM will be wrong, but who knows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: WAR is really flexing some muscle here as it builds in front of Earl all across the se, middle Atlantic, and up to about us here in the NYC Metro. Precipitation likely to under perform through tomorrow night and temperatures likely to over perform. I'm not even so sure how well coastal areas will do on Tuesday at this point. Central Park got their 25th 90+ of the season probably looking at 1-4 more. WX/PT Most useless WAR ever. Can't even send Earl west. I'm also pretty convinced we go from summer to winter again sometime in early November. Like 80s to 30/40s type of deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Made it to 90° here today with 0.36" rain past 90 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Gfs is a soaker 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 5, 2022 Author Share Posted September 5, 2022 Had some decent rain betwen 10-10:45 pm. Picked up 0.33" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Gfs!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 40 minutes ago, Rjay said: Gfs is a soaker I'd tend to favor the CMC at this point. It is not a soaker unless you're in se Ct or until 222 hours. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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