forkyfork Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 50 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Just south of the area gets crushed on the nam this low is probably overdone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 So far the 12Z guidance is supporting a nice soaking for majority of this forum. Only the 12K NAM is displaced to the south over CNJ/SNJ with axis of heaviest totals. Rest of guidance is north of there over CNJ/NNJ and out over L.I. Canadian especially shows hefty totals across the forum. I'd be happy with 2" over a 24 hour period. Don't need the excessive totals as some of that would likely be wasted on runoff, especially with the rock hard and parched soils. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 20 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this low is probably overdone I'm sure it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 1PM ROundup EWR: 89 BLM: 88 New Brnswck: 88 TTN: 86 NYC: 86 PHL: 86 LGA: 85 JFK: 85 ACY: 85 TEB: 84 ISP: 83 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 Larger breaks in the clouds should get the warm spots to notch another 90 before the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 For starters: ne PA rolling into Sussex County of nw NJ. Digital max hourly rainfall of 3/4-1.25" already in several spots. Rolling thunder here in Wantage of nw NJ since 1234P. Looks like a nice start... I checked the 12z SPC HREF: looks like minimum 1" through virtually all of our subforum by 12z Tue with more coming thereafter. Additionally HREF is flagging potential 48 hr max max 7" ne PA... less to the east but I do believe this correct and will be within 1" correct, just don't know where. PW of 1.75" and slow movers... big yield as already ne PA into extreme nw NJ. Walt 131P/4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 4, 2022 Author Share Posted September 4, 2022 This is definately going to be a welcomed widrespread 1-3" rainfall w/locally higher amounts for the NYC metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 Pretty good thunderstorm here in Sparta with heavy downpours and minor wind gusts. Seems to be moving off to the northeast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 50th 90 for ewr 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 87 here as of 3PM. DP 66/RH 52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 91 in nw Suffolk earlier, 86 now. im in Morristown and it’s stifling hot. I miss the sea breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 After the mid-week rainfall event your region may begin to see some high-level smoke layers from large fires now burning near the BC-Alberta border around 54-56 N. Lesser sources of smoke also exist in the border regions of northern ID and nw MT, se BC. It would probably be six to ten days before this arrives in the northeastern U.S., perhaps not very big concentrations, but should provide some visible upper level smoke layers and colorful sunsets perhaps. It is hot and dry here and we're expecting a dry cold front to sweep through tonight. We had the smoke from Idaho yesterday but a shift in the winds has cleared us out nicely (near 90 F with a strong westerly breeze, expecting NW 40-50 mph gusts overnight). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 Outflow boundary dropping south as seen on radar across northern NJ between I80 and I 78. Could help to pop some storms in that area. 18z NAM 3K seems to be buying into this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 every day that goes on by gets us closer to real fall weather i am guessing 2 weeks from now.. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 42 minutes ago, nycwinter said: every day that goes on by gets us closer to real fall weather i am guessing 2 weeks from now.. Meanwhile temps were in the mid 80s to low 90s today with dews around 70 lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: Meanwhile temps were in the mid 80s to low 90s today with dews around 70 lol. i did not even notice.... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 53 minutes ago, nycwinter said: every day that goes on by gets us closer to real fall weather i am guessing 2 weeks from now.. The only indicators are earlier sunsets and drought stress trees that look like they're turning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 Just now, nycwinter said: i did not even notice.... You did, hence your coping mechanism post. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 Heavy rain with the sun shining at Citifield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 Gfs shifted the heaviest to the Hudson Valley and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 Drenching rain went thru southern Westchester around 4pm. Sun is out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs shifted the heaviest to the Hudson Valley and CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 Euro south, GFS north. Somewhere in the middle will work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 2 hours ago, Tatamy said: Outflow boundary dropping south as seen on radar across northern NJ between I80 and I 78. Could help to pop some storms in that area. 18z NAM 3K seems to be buying into this setup. The outflow boundary from earlier is starting to pop some activity along the I78 area. There is a cell near Easton, PA and others near Piscataway, NJ. A sea breeze front is also approaching that area from the SE and could act to invigorate the central NJ cells further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 2 hours ago, nycwinter said: every day that goes on by gets us closer to real fall weather i am guessing 2 weeks from now.. Haven't you been saying this since like June 20th? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: 50th 90 for ewr DCA only at 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 Topped out at 88. Currently 76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 No rainfall yet here today. Was not far away just to my north. Hoping for at least .25" - .50" overnight to prime the soil so to speak. New batch of showers blossoming on radar over eastern PA and moving slowly ENE. Nothing imminent for my area but hopefully something can meander through overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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