September 2022

[winterwx21]

Yeah it seems pretty unlikely that we'll get that much rain. Almost every threat has fallen apart during this drought. It'll probably trend to become just isolated activity. And as much as we need the rain, most people aren't going to want to get it on a holiday. Especially an outdoor cookout holiday like Labor Day.

[Brian5671]

Euro goes berserk in the longer rang with 6-8 inches of rain across parts of the region next week...LOLZ

[CIK62]

Yes, But 0Z had a deficit of 1".      Now it is a 6" surplus!          Recall that the GFS had four consecutive runs with a 100 reading last week.

[Snowlover11]

silly euro

[forkyfork]

this energy has to go somewhere

[SnoSki14]

91L hanging around on the Euro off the east coast too. 

[Rjay]

88 for a high today lol

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

silly euro

it brings moisture in from the PAC hurricane that recurves into the Baja and then Mexico...we'll see....but encouraging to see some tropical moisture being modeled vs some hit/miss cold front showers...

[Cfa]

Topped out at 90, if only yesterday did the same (hit 89) this would’ve been a heat wave (for the millionth time this summer).

[forkyfork]

lol

 

[wdrag]

No answer to the Monday 8/29 post. Glad to see there is interest.  Sometimes the pattern changes abruptly (witness Dallas a week ago with

1 foot+ after months of nothing).

 

I'm seeing via the 12z/1 ensembles a suggestion of a fairly large closed low developing next week either mid Atlantic or near the Ohio Valley.

I am confident it will happen but unsure whether we are initially targeted widespread 3 day 2"+  Sun-Tue night, or whether need to wait til next weekend

for flooding rains somewhere Ohio Valley to the mid Mid Atlantic. Worthy of monitoring trends every 24 hours. 

 

For now: I wait, fingers crossed that the ensembles will continue drifting to a big closed low and am hoping that it will be affecting our area with widespread 2+.  

I don't operate on hope and continue using water judiciously so the pool water keeps the skimmers going and some of the flowers blooming. Forget the lawn.

 

Will run with 24 hour trends on this...

 

[the_other_guy]

In Wading River this evening. For a cold front passage with a (still) NW wind off water, it is amazingly warm and we just went into the water at sunset without flinching.

 

Pretty unbelievable for late August/early Sept with this setup

 

Edit: now a NE wind after sunset

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be cooler, but readings will still be near seasonable levels. In general, above normal temperatures will likely continue through at least much of the first week of September.

An intense heatwave will continue into early next week in the West. Already, Salt Lake City set a September record high temperature of 101° today. The old daily record was 100° from 2019. 100° was also the old monthly record. High temperatures included:

Death Valley, CA: 124° (old record: 121°, 1948 and 1996)
Lancaster, CA: (old record: 110°, 1948 and 1950)
Needles, CA: 112°
Palm Springs, CA: 110°
Salt Lake City: 101° (old record: 100°, 2019) ***new September record***

Boise and Salt Lake City could see temperatures approach or reach September records. Death Valley will likely see multiple 120° or hotter days.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. The recent passage of the MJO through Phase 2 at a very high amplitude (1.500 or above) during late August has introduced greater uncertainty.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +26.09 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.525 today.

On August 30 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.069 (RMM). The August 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.392 (RMM).

 

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

No answer to the Monday 8/29 post. Glad to see there is interest.  Sometimes the pattern changes abruptly (witness Dallas a week ago with

1 foot+ after months of nothing).

 

I'm seeing via the 12z/1 ensembles a suggestion of a fairly large closed low developing next week either mid Atlantic or near the Ohio Valley.

I am confident it will happen but unsure whether we are initially targeted widespread 3 day 2"+  Sun-Tue night, or whether need to wait til next weekend

for flooding rains somewhere Ohio Valley to the mid Mid Atlantic. Worthy of monitoring trends every 24 hours. 

 

For now: I wait, fingers crossed that the ensembles will continue drifting to a big closed low and am hoping that it will be affecting our area with widespread 2+.  

I don't operate on hope and continue using water judiciously so the pool water keeps the skimmers going and some of the flowers blooming. Forget the lawn.

 

Will run with 24 hour trends on this...

 

Hey Walt my interest has certainly risen over the past 24 hrs for potential big totals across SNE... Hedging closer to Tue/Wed, but not trying to get too specific right now.  Several overlapping, relatively weak features at the moment that in the past were tip offs to a big rain event.  Been waiting for the great flip from drought to an excessive rain event to show itself.  Will be interesting to see overnight trends...  

[the_other_guy]

55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be cooler, but readings will still be near seasonable levels. In general, above normal temperatures will likely continue through at least much of the first week of September.

An intense heatwave will continue into early next week in the West. Already, Salt Lake City set a September record high temperature of 101° today. The old daily record was 100° from 2019. 100° was also the old monthly record. High temperatures included:

Death Valley, CA: 124° (old record: 121°, 1948 and 1996)
Lancaster, CA: (old record: 110°, 1948 and 1950)
Needles, CA: 112°
Palm Springs, CA: 110°
Salt Lake City: 101° (old record: 100°, 2019) ***new September record***

Boise and Salt Lake City could see temperatures approach or reach September records. Death Valley will likely see multiple 120° or hotter days.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. The recent passage of the MJO through Phase 2 at a very high amplitude (1.500 or above) during late August has introduced greater uncertainty.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +26.09 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.525 today.

On August 30 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.069 (RMM). The August 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.392 (RMM).

 

I mean…that is insane heat for SLC at any time of year. And it has been happening with increasing frequency over last few years

[CIK62]

Made it to 90 here today.       Nice moon setting in the sw sky around 10:07pm.     It was a half-moon that got reddish in the minutes before it set.

70*(64%RH) here at 7am.        78* at Noon.       79* at 1pm.       84* at 4pm.       87*(31%RH) at 4:30pm.       88*(29%RH) at 5pm.       Reached 90*(28%RH) at 6pm!        85* at 7pm.      79* at 9pm.       The RH got down as low as 24%.       77* at 10pm.

https://imgur.com/qASr42u

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

I mean…that is insane heat for SLC at any time of year. And it has been happening with increasing frequency over last few years

SLC already has 28 100-degree days this year. That has demolished the previous record of 21 days (1960, 1994, and 2021). It also had its hottest summer on record.

 

[wdrag]

No time for details but all 00z/2 ensembles are getting wetter for Sun-Tue. WPC early morning outlooks have responded with a D3 low potential excessive NNJ.

EC is the most interesting for potentially two large events early next week and then next weekend.

GEPS is now backing the 500MB flow for Monday (more west instead of nw), but still, it and the GEFS don't want to pump the ridge in the se USA, therefore minimizing potential and sliding the action southward.  So uncertainty continues (including primary targets). 

Will check again at 330PM. 

My action: not overdoing the water into the pool.  Could see overtopping by the end of next weekend in worst case scenario (6+"). Just cautiously optimistic that our NYC subforum will see 1.5"+rains...especially NJ/PA/se NYS later Sun-Tue. 

Have not checked SVR potential. 

In my opinion it should be noted that it's been a quiet summer here in the northeast USA... the ever expanding and intensifying drought being the story. We're kind of due for active weather.

[bluewave]

Yeah, maybe we can finally pick up some much needed rainfall next week as we get one of the strongest -NAO patterns for early September. The amounts of rain will come down to where the front stalls out underneath the Canadian high. So the summer heat will take a break next week with some days not getting out of the 70s.

[SnoSki14]

Something's gotta give. Too much energy in the north Atlantic, a severe -NAO, tropical influences as well. 

GFS OP shows tons of competing influences 

[bluewave]

Danielle forming north of the tropics matches the seasonal pattern.
 

 

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Something's gotta give. Too much energy in the north Atlantic, a severe -NAO, tropical influences as well. 

GFS OP shows tons of competing influences 

The dam is eventually going to break 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and cooler.  High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 85°

Newark: 88°

Philadelphia: 88°

Generally warmer than normal conditions will persist through the weekend. A moderate to significant rainfall is possible next week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 80.7°; 15-Year: 80.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 82.1°; 15-Year: 82.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.2°; 15-Year: 83.0°

[the_other_guy]

On 8/31/2022 at 2:43 PM, lee59 said:

Coming up the Wantagh Parkway this morning, remarkable how many trees, including evergreens, were brown and possibly dieing.

Most of them arent dying. They are going into a dormant state much like they do in fall.

As for the evergreens, they have some other (pest) issues at the moment. You sadly see it along the LIE at Exit 69 in the Pine Barrens. 

But no mistake, this drought on the south shore isnt helping things

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  75degs.(68/82) or +3,

Reached 90 here at 6pm yesterday, 24%RH.

Today:    75-80, wind ne. to e., m. sunny, 68 tomorrow AM.

Return to Autumn or Boredom?

64*(62%RH) here at 7am.      67* at 8am.      70* at 10am.       71* at  Noon.      75* at 3pm.      77* at 4pm.       78* at 5pm.      Reached 79* at 6pm.

[donsutherland1]

New York City's average monthly rainfall for September has increased from 3.95" to 4.31". A dramatic increase in the frequency of days with 0.50"-1.99" has driven this increase. The 1992-2021 average has risen to 4.52" skewed by Ida's 2021 rainfall.

[nycwinter]

did the tonga volcanic eruption effect the climate this summer?

[Brian5671]

12Z GFS coming in wet for NYC and north monday....only 3 days away-could it be?!?!?

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

12Z GFS coming in wet for NYC and north monday....only 3 days away-could it be?!?!?

Guess it would be fitting for the south shore for the rain to shift from missing to the west/south to the north now.

[binbisso]

The new cansips improved significantly for this coming winter with a poleward aleutian ridge and a very cold Canada