Rtd208 Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 Tropical threats? Another heatwave? Discuss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 On 8/26/2022 at 3:07 PM, Rtd208 said: Tropical threats? Another heatwave? Discuss here. Good morning all. I remember 58 years ago, my first week in college, the low in the city was in the high 40’s. That first brisk, cool airmass brought with it a special feeling and aroma of fall. Now in this forth month of summer well……. As always ….. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 29, 2022 Author Share Posted August 29, 2022 If only the huge rainstorm the 18z GFS is showing for early/mid week next week would hold true. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 As noted previously: ensembles don't have it, at least not yet but the 12z/29 EC op, and particularly 18z/29 GFS op are carving out a sizable 500MB trough in the northeast USA, which could be preceded by a swath of heavy convective rainfall (exclusive to this Tues night-30th-31st). Late Sunday-4th through Tue the 6th is this primary window of opportunity. Presuming the drought continues for most of us (per ensemble miss to our east), then when might it break thereafter???? I am hoping it's been previously discussed that at least one study I vaguely recall has shown the bulk of our late summer-fall rainfall here, is tropical system related. The unusually low (delayed?) ACE in the Atlc Basin tropical season seems to be linked to the generally notably parched northeast USA (NJ-New England). Fingers crossed that todays EC/GFS op cycle outliers become primary by Labor day. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 The latest update from the guidance is that Sunday will probably be the warmest day of the holiday weekend. Looks like low 90s ahead of the backdoor that will approach by later in the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 Coming up the Wantagh Parkway this morning, remarkable how many trees, including evergreens, were brown and possibly dieing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 85° Newark: 88° Philadelphia: 88° Generally warmer than normal conditions will persist through at least much of the first week of September. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 80.9°; 15-Year: 80.8° Newark: 30-Year: 82.3°; 15-Year: 82.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.5°; 15-Year: 83.2° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 A year ago today................ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 Okay guys, now this is interesting: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/ With respect to the massive stratospheric injection of water vapor by the Hunga Tonga eruption (~10% of the total that resides in the stratosphere normally, a huge quantity), we’ve been hearing that the greenhouse gas may produce a small surface warming anomaly. This stands counter to the ‘normal’ effects on the climate from large scale explosive volcanism, as typically sulphur and ash particulates are responsible for measurable surface cooling as is what happened after Pinatubo 1991 for a couple years. But we know HTHH was very sulphur poor (1/40th the loading of Pinatubo). However, I raised the question in the August thread about how this disruption to the stratosphere may impact the various oscillations as we head into northern hemispheric winter. This article finds correlation between the observed current stratospheric cooling in the Southern Hemisphere resulting from HTHH (check it out, it’s a MASSIVE anomaly right now) and northern hemispheric stratospheric warming. What happens when we have stratospheric warming in winter? Negative NAO leading to BN surface temps and improved storm tracks. This is correlative conjecture in looking at past instances of stratospheric cooling in the Southern Hemisphere, but it’s very interesting and cuts right to the heart of what I’ve been asking and speculating about. Thought you guys might find this interesting. Lock it in? SSW epic neg NAO 60 inch NYC snowstorms? Yes please. Of course this is speculation, and we’re more or less going to be learning in real time what its impacts will be, if any at all (though finding it unlikely to be nil), for our northern hemispheric winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 August ended at 79.3[+3.2] The first 8 days of September are averaging 77degs.(69/85) or +5. First half of September is a BORE according to this run: Danielle Goodbye-We Hardly Knew You. Now was Danielle an only child? Reached 87*(34%RH) here late yesterday. Today: 83-88, wind w. to n., m. sunny, 66 tomorrow AM. 70*(64%RH) here at 7am. 78* at Noon. 79* at 1pm. 84* at 4pm. 87*(31%RH) at 4:30pm. 88*(29%RH) at 5pm. Reached 90*(28%RH) at 6pm! 85* at 7pm. 79* at 9pm. The RH got down as low as 24%. 77* at 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 aww september the month where we transition from summer to fall i just feel it. it is this close.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, nycwinter said: aww september the month where we transition from summer to fall i just feel it. it is this close.. Not anymore lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 21 minutes ago, nycwinter said: aww september the month where we transition from summer to fall i just feel it. it is this close.. The forecast temperatures are what we would normally see for August. August is the new September clearly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 even in hot august we had a 6 day stretch of delightful weather with low humidity felt great.. september will even be better... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, nycwinter said: even in hot august we had a 6 day stretch of delightful weather with low humidity felt great.. september will even be better... The entirety of August felt delightful. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 more record highs to come as the western heat spills over 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 We can't even get a near normal month with the new averages. Every month is a top 5 warmest month. Kinda wild how fast things are warming when you really think about it. A 0" snowfall is definitely on the cards if this pattern rolls into winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: We can't even get a near normal month with the new averages. Every month is a top 5 warmest month. Kinda wild how fast things are warming when you really think about it. A 0" snowfall is definitely on the cards if this pattern rolls into winter. ewr hasn't had a high below 80 since 8/1 and it was the only sub 80 high since june 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 Just now, forkyfork said: ewr hasn't had a high below 80 since 8/1 and it was the only sub 80 high since june 23 Crazy, some people are still trying to justify that things weren't so hot. If a top 2-3 or hottest/driest summer on record ain't good enough then what is. The persistence is key when it comes to climate change and that's what we're seeing all over the world, endless heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 It will certainly feel better than it has felt in September, even if it becomes another above average month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: more record highs to come as the western heat spills over all that record heat in canada has pushed east by mid sept 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 No Hurricane here this month: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 20 minutes ago, CIK62 said: No Hurricane here this month: D3 here we come!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 87 with a dewpoint of 49 here, and not a cloud in the sky. What a day to start September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: We can't even get a near normal month with the new averages. Every month is a top 5 warmest month. Kinda wild how fast things are warming when you really think about it. A 0" snowfall is definitely on the cards if this pattern rolls into winter. One thing we've seen with our warming climate is we're still getting a good amount of snow in the winter. It has become a Colorado-like climate in the winter here with the combination of warm temps and big snowstorms. So hopefully we can continue to pull off a good amount of snow in our warmer winters, but of course there's no guarantee that this will continue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: One thing we've seen with our warming climate is we're still getting a good amount of snow in the winter. It has become a Colorado-like climate in the winter with the combination of warm temps and big snowstorms. So hopefully we can continue to pull off a good amount of snow in our warmer winters, but of course there's no guarantee that this will continue. We’re nowhere close to being too warm for snow in the winters. The main problem we’ll keep having is bad storm tracks when +NAO/AO dominate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 GFS and EURO are wet for Monday-let's see if it holds 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: GFS and EURO are wet for Monday-let's see if it holds We can only hope. If persistence has anything to say about it this will be much reduced on future runs. Time will tell but lately dry begets dry and warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, MANDA said: We can only hope. If persistence has anything to say about it this will be much reduced on future runs. Time will tell but lately dry begets dry and warmth. Completely agree-models have been overdone in the medium-long range on QPF 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 i'll believe the euro amounts when they're in my rain gauge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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