dendrite Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 Mins this morning. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 It's kind of a "shot before the shot across the bow" air mass.. But it's interesting how this segues into a week of +15 to +18 (at times) 850 mb thermal layout next week, after Monday's potential shits Which is really a nested anomaly. The larger circulation/super synoptic manifold is very much above normal while the worst of guidance depictions plays out from late Sunday through Tuesday. Speaking of which, jeez, the NAM? That's a Shawshanking. It has that BD mid 50s occasional light rain in a saturated misty gloom look ..rim to rim across Labor Day. I don't know what it is about the NAM - other than the fact that it is a piece of synoptic shit beyond about 10 minutes out in time ... But it somehow physically always manages to manifest the worst of all imaginary scenarios, within a plausibility framework in that time range. No matter what metric one is using it for Cold? it's the warmest model. Warmth? it's the coldest model. Nice weather? deepest boning of all guidance... It's weird. It's like NCEP created a perturbed turd just to like see what if ... ya know. Hell ..it could be right. If that high moving through Quebec is more or less weighty, probably determines if the front hangs up over Brian vs L.I. It seems Brian's screwed either way, which is certainly good... I guess ultimately I don't care. I'd really like to charge my lawn and the surrounding geology with a 2-3" dose at this point. Today through Sunday is fine and a reasonable compromise. Then next week we see if embedded/nested anomaly clears out in time to get one last run in with above normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 GFS floods the chickens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: GFS floods the chickens. Dry wells in Taunton. They still need to dry out from the drenching this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 Just saw a FB reminder that 5 years ago (2017) my house got to 34.4F in the morning. Yore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 Ukie dropping 4-5" along rt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 The wagon trains have all left for NNE Monday and Tuesday . SNE we barby , beer, boob , bake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The wagon trains have all left for NNE Monday and Tuesday . SNE we barby , beer, boob , bake Timely post as it looked like most guidance shifted south a bit. Hope you get drenched so I can head back north and get a nice afternoon/evening hike in. GFS almost lets me. GGEM spreads the wealth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 I think axis will be closer to low level convergence wherever that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 That boundary sags south slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 I would like the rain, but wish it holds off a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 The NAM at some point will have obscene amounts in a narrow area when it gets into view. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 8 hours ago, kdxken said: Playing kettlebrook today. Have you played it recently? Burned out? Not bad at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 Just now, kdxken said: Not bad at all! Bocce? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think axis will be closer to low level convergence wherever that is. It’ll be much narrower than the global model QPF too IMO. Along that boundary. HRRR, 3km NAM, etc will show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: It’ll be much narrower than the global model QPF too IMO. Along that boundary. HRRR, 3km NAM, etc will show that. I agree. Light to moderate rains north of that. But, seems like many will eventually get a decent drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Timely post as it looked like most guidance shifted south a bit. Hope you get drenched so I can head back north and get a nice afternoon/evening hike in. GFS almost lets me. GGEM spreads the wealth. Enjoy the bridge collapses up there Monday . We’ll be outside chillaxin ‘ in Moosup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2022 Author Share Posted September 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Enjoy the bridge collapses up there Monday . We’ll be outside chillaxin ‘ in Moosup. Will you be smiln'? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Will you be smiln'? Chillin n grillin Fish says Not so fast on floods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Enjoy the bridge collapses up there Monday . We’ll be outside chillaxin ‘ in Moosup. COC business suits out today in CT. This weather is intoxicating. Weekend forecast on my folks’ hallway wall: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2022 Author Share Posted September 2, 2022 Figure it has to rain appreciably here at some point....maybe this is it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Ukie dropping 4-5" along rt 2 Bring it! ...I really want it. I do. I couldn't give a ratz azz about Labor Day...particularly when it's likely to be utopic through noon on Sunday. Who cares... But 5" of rain would go some corrective distance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 I knew it was just a matter of time before the GGEM tried to lure 'cane enthusiasts in .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 Lots of 2"+. some 3"+ near ern areas around BOS and widespread in NH and Maine. 4"+ ectrl NH into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 Stein will be buried for many if that happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 I already still have standing water up here, Don't really need a lake, Hope the Euro is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 71/54. Super cocSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 EPS heaviest axis is around the MA/NH border as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2022 Author Share Posted September 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: EPS heaviest axis is around the MA/NH border as well. Finally...I think its over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: EPS heaviest axis is around the MA/NH border as well. It is .. I'm also wondering if the ensemble means being shy of their operational version by a factor of ~ 4 should be a red flag, but this is also D4 at this point ( or less) and the operational runs are typically better in this range. hmm. Maybe this is just that sensitive so it needs a shorter term - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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