tamarack Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 32 minutes ago, tunafish said: 39.0 for the low 33 here, with frozen dew on car tops. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It does look like a warmer week overall, but man does the door slam shut later Thursday. Big temp contrasts tomorrow thru Tuesday, depending on which side of the front one lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, tamarack said: Big temp contrasts tomorrow thru Tuesday, depending on which side of the front one lives. Yep. But In general at least down here it will be AN until later Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: GFS sits the icelandic low over the region to end the run. That’s a cold final week of Sep and it looks like that cold shot next week could threaten a freeze down here. Looks like solid frost or freeze in Coos county last night. Those colors will accelerate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, tamarack said: 33 here, with frozen dew on car tops. First frost on the forum? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 46 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 37F and dense fog. 38° outside and 60° inside. Closed the windows too late. Turned the heat on to get the house up to 65° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: First frost on the forum? Alex is 29°. He may have had a frost before this as well…can’t recall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 We haven’t had these Sept obs in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sled Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Does anyone have a good source of data for ground temperature? Both current and historic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sled said: Does anyone have a good source of data for ground temperature? Both current and historic? Like skin temps or soil temperature at certain depths? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 38 minutes ago, dendrite said: Alex is 29°. He may have had a frost before this as well…can’t recall It was 33 yesterday so most likely... But not home to confirm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Mins… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 46F. Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Low of 49 here this morning. Low of 45 yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 43F. Off to the Cape today for a overnighter...looks like it'll be a nice weekend until late tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 These are the days. Cool nights and warm days. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 You have some competing concepts going on out there along the long side of the middle range. In once sense, the models have an objective tendency to see that range through an amplifying lens ... presumably, suggesting some 20% normalization/correction by the user - with the caveat in mind, 'extremes sometimes still take place.' In the opposing sense, the N. Pacific is being jolted by recent and future excessive latent heat fluxing. This is readily observable looping the 500 mb anomalies. Aft of this present period, through this present period, and out through D6-10, that is sending wave disruption cue rippling down stream through N/A. The models are still sorting that out.. In the near term, the outside slider down the California coast is an impressive anomaly evolution in its own rights, but can be traced back as a quasi direct/indirect down stream effect. In the D4 6 range, the trough amplitude over SE Canada is as well... Despite one model bias aspect telling us to tone it down ( particularly in the D6 range), and one signal suggesting giving weight to a deeper event wrt to that... I believe those can operate inclusively. In other words ...there will be trough, but there is a limit to how deep it will be. By the time we get to eastern N/A, it's pretty far from the forcing source over the WPO - N. Pac; combining that with over amplitude biases, that all argues convincingly enough to go anomalous, but not crazy. The Euro takes it too far/deep. The GGEM for that matter is as well... The ensemble mean of the EPS and GEFS have 2-day trended more amplified, and we'll see how that goes as the D6 passes inside the D5 "bias horizon" Why does this analysis matter? Because the idea of freeze is being sold by the operational runs, so that's an event worth covering. Also, "Fiona" lurking there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 17, 2022 Author Share Posted September 17, 2022 Hit 39.0 this AM 41.2 yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 More color showing up this morning on my drive through Roxbury.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: We haven’t had these Sept obs in awhile. 2020 had that ridiculous stretch around the equinox. CON set 3 consecutive record lows (almost had 4) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 2020 had that ridiculous stretch around the equinox. CON set 3 consecutive record lows (almost had 4) Sept 19-22 minima that year: 29/25/25/26. Only time we've had 4 straight 20s mornings in September. Low of 49 here this morning. Low of 45 yesterday. You were 4°milder this morning, I was 15° cooler as overnight wind made for a low of 48° yesterday. The power of mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sled Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 5 hours ago, dendrite said: Like skin temps or soil temperature at certain depths? I'd be interested in both. I found this https://www.weather.gov/ncrfc/LMI_SoilTemperatureDepthMaps But I can't seem to find any data that includes our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 That GFS cold shot is ridiculous for later next week. Prob record cold in a lot of spots. Would prob have a lot of first flakes of season in NNE too and even down into Berkshires/Monads/etc. Euro isn’t quite as crazy and is probably more reasonable. Still quite cold though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 17, 2022 Author Share Posted September 17, 2022 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That GFS cold shot is ridiculous for later next week. Prob record cold in a lot of spots. Would prob have a lot of first flakes of season in NNE too and even down into Berkshires/Monads/etc. Euro isn’t quite as crazy and is probably more reasonable. Still quite cold though. Endless summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That GFS cold shot is ridiculous for later next week. Prob record cold in a lot of spots. Would prob have a lot of first flakes of season in NNE too and even down into Berkshires/Monads/etc. Euro isn’t quite as crazy and is probably more reasonable. Still quite cold though. I'm trying to figure out why we are getting such a resonance response from the western Pacific heat flux/typhoon injection, so much during this period. Am aware there is generic correlation there but if you loop the Pacific broad scope anomaly distribution through D10 ...you can clearly see the constructive feedback - and it's doing it with exceptional coherence. It may be just one of those things ... but I suspect that's the question we need to answer. Granted ...it is the models, and nothing's actually verified yet - I've already outlined some aspects of known biases in the models in the range, which could account for some of the amplitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: 2020 had that ridiculous stretch around the equinox. CON set 3 consecutive record lows (almost had 4) Yeah it did. I just mean for overall successive cool shots. A change from endless summer exhaust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: That GFS cold shot is ridiculous for later next week. Prob record cold in a lot of spots. Would prob have a lot of first flakes of season in NNE too and even down into Berkshires/Monads/etc. Euro isn’t quite as crazy and is probably more reasonable. Still quite cold though. Yeah that's bonkers for a Day 6 prog. Like high temp in the lower 40s up here in the valleys and highs in the 20s on the peaks lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 That would be the cherry on top for the Tolland hydrangeas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: That would be the cherry on top for the Tolland hydrangeas. Doesn’t matter. He already committed hydrological homicide to them. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: That would be the cherry on top for the Tolland hydrangeas. We wouldn’t freeze here on hilltop that early . They’re coming back sort of 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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