ORH_wxman Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ve seen the CCB slam SE areas including the Cape and this sort of mini slot develops in srn RI and into extreme SE CT. Maybe into areas west of New Bedford too. It’s definitely the dryslot in the mid levels, but sometimes the CCB from 850-700 can mask that off to the east. Sure maybe the prime DGZ dries out, but you have a firehose of moisture and small to medium sized flakes there. It doesn’t happen in every storm, but besides the March 2013 event, January 2005 and I remember January 2011 was an issue there too. It’s not due to downsloping, but perhaps maybe a standing wave that can develop if conditions favor. That’s what happened in March 2013 to the extreme. Big isentropic lift or upglide in ern areas. Sinking air to the point that sun sun was visible in RI, and then upglide again in CT. There was also a s/w in NY state that likely aided the totals near Kevin. Sometimes I feel like the longitude at which storms most rapidly deepen south of us plays a role. You start seeing that dryslot wrap in while it’s still over E LI into S RI but by the time it migrates eastward, the rapidly deepening midlevel centers are collapsing everything E and SE and it fills in by the time it reaches, say, TAN to PYM corridor. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Beer!! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 One notable snowhole is the area by Keene NH. I recall when you guys first taught me why that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 SRI is not a good snowspot but even 10 miles inland it is decent. Draw a line 10 miles inland following the coast and its double the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: One notable snowhole is the area by Keene NH. I recall when you guys first taught me why that happens. Rays hood got it beat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Rays hood got it beat He will get the occasional 31”er lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Sometimes I feel like the longitude at which storms most rapidly deepen south of us plays a role. You start seeing that dryslot wrap in while it’s still over E LI into S RI but by the time it migrates eastward, the rapidly deepening midlevel centers are collapsing everything E and SE and it fills in by the time it reaches, say, TAN to PYM corridor. That makes a lot of synoptic sense too. Sometimes it’s just the slight difference between a more shredded radar and more congealed presentation as things move from one zone to another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That makes a lot of synoptic sense too. Sometimes it’s just the slight difference between a more shredded radar and more congealed presentation as things move from one zone to another. Will and I talked about this before, but the Jan 05 blizzard was just like he described. I remember looking at radar and being like “ummm that’s getting too close for comfort..” All of the sudden the precip shield exploded into an intense CCB band. One of the most classic Miller B representations on radar from start to finish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s not bad.. especially the northern side of town bordering easton where I am. PVD area is a pit for snow. I totally buy there is some funky mesoscale stuff that possibly finds that area more I’ve seen first hand how variable it is in TAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Will and I talked about this before, but the Jan 05 blizzard was just like he described. I remember looking at radar and being like “ummm that’s getting too close for comfort..” All of the sudden the precip shield exploded into an intense CCB band. One of the most classic Miller B representations on radar from start to finish. Very enlightening climo discussion. Deep easterly flow events seem hit or miss in PVD/RI, but also never jackpots. Additionally, mid-level warmth is more likely to punch into the area. Low-level warmth is more likely to punch into the area. Developing Miller Bs are more likely to organize to the E or NE. Mid-level deformation is more likely to the west. Multiple reasons overlap. There’s a laundry list discussed here as to why the GON-PVD stretch ends up in the minimum. QPF and snow. I’d root for a deformation band right through PVD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ve seen first hand how variable it is in TAN. Bob and I try to tell ‘em. It’s a big area. Since I’ve been on these forums there have been numerous instances where he is raining or mixing and Matt (butterfish) and I are snowing. I live like 6 or so miles from Stonehill College and it can even be a huge difference from here to there. Once you start getting up to this area, any additional miles north or northwest from the ocean can pay huge dividends From my house now I can be to Sharon in about 10 to 12 mins, but that area does much better than me. Slightly more NW and slightly elevated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Bob and I try to tell ‘em. It’s a big area. Since I’ve been on these forums there have been numerous instances where he is raining or mixing and Matt (butterfish) and I are snowing. I live like 6 or so miles from Stonehill College and it can even be a huge difference from here to there. Once you start getting up to this area, any additional miles north or northwest from the ocean can pay huge dividends From my house now I can be to Sharon in about 10 to 12 mins, but that area does much better than me. Slightly more NW and slightly elevated. I’m on the NW edge of that gradient in Holliston. It rapidly decreases southeast of me. Between here and like Wrentham or Plainville is only like 15 miles but the difference can be night and day. Snow cover often rapidly decreases. Even between here and Norfolk/Walpole…though Walpole does a little better since they have some sneaky elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 20 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Very enlightening climo discussion. Deep easterly flow events seem hit or miss in PVD/RI, but also never jackpots. Additionally, mid-level warmth is more likely to punch into the area. Low-level warmth is more likely to punch into the area. Developing Miller Bs are more likely to organize to the E or NE. Mid-level deformation is more likely to the west. Multiple reasons overlap. There’s a laundry list discussed here as to why the GON-PVD stretch ends up in the minimum. QPF and snow. I’d root for a deformation band right through PVD. That was nice to see in Jan this year. Our good friends near UUU got lit up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 17, 2022 Author Share Posted September 17, 2022 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Rays hood got it beat Not historically, but it's been a rough several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Models looking pretty damn chilly next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 4 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: One notable snowhole is the area by Keene NH. I recall when you guys first taught me why that happens. Yep. Decent retention tho, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 39.0 for the low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Down to 38.9° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 37F and dense fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Very warm week shaping up starting tomorrow. Thursday has a good signal of damaging wind event with the front , even kind of a derecho look to it at this juncture. Wiz totally missed this one . Then finally a cool airmass late next week and weekend . 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Very warm week shaping up starting tomorrow. Thursday has a good signal of damaging wind event with the front , even kind of a derecho look to it at this juncture. Wiz totally missed this one . Then finally a cool airmass late next week and weekend . Maybe some 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Very warm week shaping up starting tomorrow. Thursday has a good signal of damaging wind event with the front , even kind of a derecho look to it at this juncture. Wiz totally missed this one . Then finally a cool airmass late next week and weekend . Wiz said maybe Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Finally got into the 40s here. 49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wiz said maybe Thursday. Oh ok. Kudos to him then . I missed it. Could be best threat of the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh ok. Kudos to him then . I missed it. Could be best threat of the summer Timing may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 GFS sits the icelandic low over the region to end the run. That’s a cold final week of Sep and it looks like that cold shot next week could threaten a freeze down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 It does look like a warmer week overall, but man does the door slam shut later Thursday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: GFS sits the icelandic low over the region to end the run. That’s a cold final week of Sep and it looks like that cold shot next week could threaten a freeze down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Another crisp morning with a coc day day on tap. Go get it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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