Wake me Up....when September Ends....

[ORH_wxman]

30 minutes ago, White Rain said:

Thanks lived at the other spot for awhile and it felt like we were always on the edge for coastals with all the SE dominant winters. Probably biased in that regard with what to expect typically. 

Yeah some of those scrapers can give PTSD in the interior. But in my long experience with central MA wx, I feel like as long as you are on the east slope of the ORH hills, higher elevation is going to equal more ice and more snow. 
 

The extra elevation outstrips any other variable when you are still on the east side of the spine. Once you go west of the spine far enough, things change since you start to lose the orographic enhancement on easterly and northeasterly flow. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah some of those scrapers can give PTSD in the interior. But in my long experience with central MA wx, I feel like as long as you are on the east slope of the ORH hills, higher elevation is going to equal more ice and more snow. 
 

The extra elevation outstrips any other variable when you are still on the east side of the spine. Once you go west of the spine far enough, things change since you start to lose the orographic enhancement on easterly and northeasterly flow. 

We spine 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We spine 

No you lose the enhancement 

[Damage In Tolland]

I absolutely knew he would comment on that lol

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I absolutely knew he would comment on that lol

You’d do well on a more easterly flow like a Dec ‘92. Regular coastal with winds more NNE don’t provide enhancement there….the rare westerly flow event does well there too. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I absolutely knew he would comment on that lol

You need those weird western spine fluff jobs.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You need those weird western spine fluff jobs.

I do well here on easterly inflow events. This area of CT is notorious for maxoout in those.. like that Morch storm in 14 that screwed RI. I’ve noticed it with rain events too .. most recently the one a few weeks ago 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You’d do well on a more easterly flow like a Dec ‘92. Regular coastal with winds more NNE don’t provide enhancement there….the rare westerly flow event does well there too. 

Yeah those weird SW or w flow events seem to overperform but like you said .. it’s not often you see those . Anything with deep E inflow screws areas to the east in RI , but it hits the hills and wrings it out

[Whineminster]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I do well here on easterly inflow events. This area of CT is notorious for maxoout in those.. like that Morch storm in 14 that screwed RI. I’ve noticed it with rain events too .. most recently the one a few weeks ago 

Yeah not sure what they're talking about. You always do well in noreasters and anytime flow comes off the ocean

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah those weird SW or w flow events seem to overperform but like you said .. it’s not often you see those . Anything with deep E inflow screws areas to the east in RI , but it hits the hills and wrings it out

I’m more curious on how deep easterly flow screws RI?  Yes, well aware of March 2013 but wasn’t that more fluke than climo?

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’m more curious on how deep easterly flow screws RI?  Yes, well aware of March 2013 but wasn’t that more fluke than climo?

I think it’s a fluke. Dec ‘92 didn’t screw N RI like Mar ‘13 did. Woonsocket over to Burrilville got annihilated. 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think it’s a fluke. Dec ‘92 didn’t screw N RI like Mar ‘13 did. Woonsocket over to Burrilville got annihilated. 

Only thing I could think of is coastal front in SE MA creating some sort of standing wave time and time again… but if they didn’t snow well in nor’easters and coastal storms, their seasonal numbers would stand out more IMO when compared with neighboring areas.

[Damage In Tolland]

39 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’m more curious on how deep easterly flow screws RI?  Yes, well aware of March 2013 but wasn’t that more fluke than climo?

I guess I don’t mean all of RI. The NW hills there that border CT like Burrilville can do well . I’m referring more to Warwick / PVD .. even over to TAN. Those low , flat swampy lands don’t do well with deep inflow 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I guess I don’t mean all of RI. The NW hills there that border CT like Burrilville can do well . I’m referring more to Warwick / PVD .. even over to TAN. Those low , flat swampy lands don’t do well with deep inflow 

That event was like an arc of moisture that extended over to your area and then petered out. It was NW of that weird subby zone.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That event was like an arc of moisture that extended over to your area and then petered out. It was NW of that weird subby zone.

But there’s been numerous other events where that area gets screwed “ relatively speaking” . It’s been a very real phenomenon. They do much better on your typical Nor Easter’s that move quickly 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I guess I don’t mean all of RI. The NW hills there that border CT like Burrilville can do well . I’m referring more to Warwick / PVD .. even over to TAN. Those low , flat swampy lands don’t do well with deep inflow 

I’d like to see some other good examples because I think recency bias is just throwing up March 2013 and taking it as climo.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’d like to see some other good examples because I think recency bias is just throwing up March 2013 and taking it as climo.

Srn RI can be a screw hole. Sometimes they are east of the mid level goodies and don’t quite get into the CCB off to the east and northeast. I do think there is something to big easterly flow slamming into SE MA and maybe some sort of standing wave happens, but March 2013 was extreme. Like Will said, nrn RI was crushed in Dec 92.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

July1 was 92 at BOS and near 90 on the 12z. Lots of 80s too. Pretty much summer wx. 

Yup.  That was a decently hot day followed by two weeks of great wx.  

[Damage In Tolland]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

 

 

Facts. One day over 82 all 15 days. JULY? Low dews good radiation on dry soil. Not humid

Was a hot muggy month other than a few random days . Iron clad my man 

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Srn RI can be a screw hole. Sometimes they are east of the mid level goodies and don’t quite get into the CCB off to the east and northeast. I do think there is something to big easterly flow slamming into SE MA and maybe some sort of standing wave happens, but March 2013 was extreme. Like Will said, nrn RI was crushed in Dec 92.

Yeah I was thinking I could see them getting mid-level dry slotted easier the further SE you are but that would apply to Mass too.  I mean isn’t GON to PVD to TAN and SE of there the lowest snow climo in SNE?

I guess I’d be curious QPF wise if there’s something long term that causes them to see less precip in coastal storms… because the discussion really comes down to QPF more than snowfall.

[Damage In Tolland]

The posters that live in that area post about it all the time. There’s several of them . And they all are very scarred by it happening multiple times. I would be too. It’s a bad feeling 

[Damage In Tolland]

There’s a big snowhole in VT too that probably can be attributed to at least some of the same basic phenomena. The Brattleboro area

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a big snowhole in VT too that probably can be attributed to at least some of the same basic phenomena. The Brattleboro area

My brain is cramping trying to find the common ground of the same phenomena that affects RI and Brattleboro, VT.

There are snow holes all around in most valleys, I mean I’m a precip hole relative to the mountain a few miles away.

But what meteorologically would tie RI and Brattleboro together?

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

My brain is cramping trying to find the common ground of the same phenomena that affects RI and Brattleboro, VT.

There are snow holes all around in most valleys, I mean I’m a precip hole relative to the mountain a few miles away.

But what meteorologically would tie RI and Brattleboro together?

Atmospheric phenomena. Standing wave theory, downsloping , wind direction out of NE . Dots start connecting 

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Atmospheric phenomena. Standing wave theory, downsloping , wind direction out of NE . Dots start connecting 

What does RI downslope from on east flow?

Sure every time a place gets less precipitation there was more sinking air there than other areas, I guess ties all of them together regardless of where on a map they are… but we can do better than that basic premise in trying to dissect it meteorologically.

They are absolutely a lower snowfall area but for a variety of factors, mid-level dry slots, warmth punching north, proximity to warm water, etc.  But does it stand out more than neighboring areas in like SE Mass I guess is what I’m struggling with meteorologically.  If it’s normal climo, there should be an easy answer.

[CoastalWx]

38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I was thinking I could see them getting mid-level dry slotted easier the further SE you are but that would apply to Mass too.  I mean isn’t GON to PVD to TAN and SE of there the lowest snow climo in SNE?

I guess I’d be curious QPF wise if there’s something long term that causes them to see less precip in coastal storms… because the discussion really comes down to QPF more than snowfall.

I’ve seen the CCB slam SE areas including the Cape and this sort of mini slot develops in srn RI and into extreme SE CT. Maybe into areas west of New Bedford too. It’s definitely the dryslot in the mid levels, but sometimes the CCB from 850-700 can mask that off to the east. Sure maybe the prime DGZ dries out, but you have a firehose of moisture and small to medium sized flakes there. 
 

It doesn’t happen in every storm, but besides the March 2013 event, January 2005 and I remember January 2011 was an issue there too. 
 

It’s not due to downsloping, but perhaps maybe a standing wave that can develop if conditions favor. That’s what happened in March 2013 to the extreme. Big isentropic lift or upglide in ern areas. Sinking air to the point that sun sun was visible in RI, and then upglide again in CT. There was also a s/w in NY state that likely aided the totals near Kevin. 

[CoastalWx]

TAN does well overall for snow. Certainly better than GON and south of PVD. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

TAN does well overall for snow. Certainly better than GON and south of PVD. 

Lol yea…how many 18+ events have they had since 2010? Too many to count I bet. 

[powderfreak]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ve seen the CCB slam SE areas including the Cape and this sort of mini slot develops in srn RI and into extreme SE CT. Maybe into areas west of New Bedford too. It’s definitely the dryslot in the mid levels, but sometimes the CCB from 850-700 can mask that off to the east. Sure maybe the prime DGZ dries out, but you have a firehose of moisture and small to medium sized flakes there. 
 

It doesn’t happen in every storm, but besides the March 2013 event, January 2005 and I remember January 2011 was an issue there too. 
 

It’s not due to downsloping, but perhaps maybe a standing wave that can develop if conditions favor. That’s what happened in March 2013 to the extreme. Big isentropic lift or upglide in ern areas. Sinking air to the point that sun sun was visible in RI, and then upglide again in CT. There was also a s/w in NY state that likely aided the totals near Kevin. 

Boom awesome, that’s the discussion detail I needed.  It all makes sense.  I think I was just balking at the standing wave being a climo normal pattern.

Between the CCB and mid-level lift west also makes sense… you guys right on the coast are still pulling big QPF (even if low ratio) as it pivots on the coast… then the usual lighter/disjointed lift gap found in most storms between the CCB and the H6-H7 mid-level stuff.

Looks like there’s a lot of reasons for GON-PVD-TAN line SE to have issues, ha.  Cards stacked against them.  I guess I never really looked at them as a “sinking air” on east flow type location.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

TAN does well overall for snow. Certainly better than GON and south of PVD. 

It’s not bad.. especially the northern side of town bordering easton where I am. 
 

PVD area is a pit for snow. I totally buy there is some funky mesoscale stuff that possibly finds that area more