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Wake me Up....when September Ends....


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Having said that ...           F! 

why oh why as tropical phenomenon enthusiasts ... must we be shown a "deterministic" solution, that ... really defies any formulaic convention to find a flaw in its design (about 100%), at range that is about 0% likely to verify?

That's well above the 95th ...perhaps 98th percentile - you could fiddle with that some and still make out alright as a "responsible mentality" LOL ...

you sickos ...   

j/k

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And there comes grapply CAA showers into the Lakes 3 days later, with flips to snow in the U.P.

It seems every year we canvas a GFS painting at this range like that.   I swear I saw a 15 contoured hornet sting E of the Del Marva last year around this time...and the year before, and the year before that.  ugh

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That goes right up the CTRV . Yes f’ing please !

Uhhh no, it's east of the CT River Valley.  

E. LI over Worcester to Nashua to ET transistion over Montreal.

It's actually a send in structural engineers for the Prudential Tower in the aftermath sort of track -

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Just remember, models often lose the big ones quickly, only to bring them back as we get closer.  Just say that for the next 35 of those 45 runs.

Ah I don’t know if that phenomenon applies to the tropics…? ha.

That’s more of a hemisphere planetary wave management issue, which is where and what hosts extratropical cyclones…

Those kind of big events. 

The tropics remind me … especially at this range. It’s like the spray that comes out of a particle collision at Hadron  

And the metaphor kind of works for me because I suspect the handling the tropical interactive fusion with the westerlies is a lot more fundamental - sort of prior to the ongoing orchestration of atmospheric mechanics that are already in play when the models first detect them. 

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ah I don’t know if that phenomenon applies to the tropics…? ha.

That’s more of a hemisphere planetary wave management issue, which is where and what hosts extratropical cyclones…

Those kind of big events. 

The tropics remind me … especially at this range. It’s like the spray that comes out of a particle collision at Hadron  

And the metaphor kind of works for me because I suspect the handling the tropical interactive fusion with the westerlies is a lot more fundamental - sort of prior to the ongoing orchestration of atmospheric mechanics that are already in play when the models first detect them. 

Ha, yeah I was saying that tongue in cheek.  Once that disappears from the model in a run, it’s not coming back :lol:.

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41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Having said that ...           F! 

why oh why as tropical phenomenon enthusiasts ... must we be shown a "deterministic" solution, that ... really defies any formulaic convention to find a flaw in its design (about 100%), at range that is about 0% likely to verify?

That's well above the 95th ...perhaps 98th percentile - you could fiddle with that some and still make out alright as a "responsible mentality" LOL ...

you sickos ...   

j/k

That actually could be worse.....it crosses near the tip of LI, as is, so much of LI would be spared the catastrophic surge. Send that 50-70mi westward if you would like to wipe them.

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No acorns this year to speak of other than 1 Oak . And even that is dropping only a couple. It’s been several years at least since we haven’t had heavy heavy acorns.  
Heaviest acorns in years and they started early. Need a helmet at times out in the yard.

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

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Saw my first flying-V of Canadian geese noisily flying by this evening.  The animals know change is coming.

Wasn’t really a nice dry air mass today, dews hanging 55-57F.  But the weather pattern felt like “cold season” in gusty WNW winds and quick moving orographic showers.  Cyclonic flow popcorn stuff that in another month is usually chances of graupel.

Type of day where mountain sees a tenth or two of water total and tapering to my 0.05” in town, probably a hundredth at a time over five showers.

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