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Wake me Up....when September Ends....


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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You start to wonder if you see even 1” when that silliness is modeled 

Lol...    heh,  I dunno about that, but I agree the 6-8" is ludicrous. 

What this is, is a modest synoptic forcing with convective modulation mixed in.  The models can't pin point where those modulation points will be...but more than less 'recognize' the intrinsic potential.   So someone walks by and slaps the side of the cray and that's all the trigger it needs in the super computer LOL.

I can see 2-3" as the general potential, with the caveat in mind that this has a higher order for uncertainty than is normal for short duration lead.  So if it is 1.5" or 4" that range is in (unfortunately) a broader envelope of possibilities.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Lol...    heh,  I dunno about that, but I agree the 6-8" is ludicrous. 

What this is, is a modest synoptic forcing with convective modulation mixed in.  The models can't pin point where...but more than less 'recognize' the intrinsic potential.   So a someone slaps the side of the cray and that's all the trigger it needs in the super computer LOL.

I can see 2-3" as the general potential, with the caveat in mind that that this has a higher order for uncertainty that normal at short duration lead.  So if it is 1.5" or 4" that range is in (unfortunately) an broader envelope of possibilities.

It will be two jacks .. one in and near Dendy tonight with the actual convection . And another S coast of CT up to near TAN over the CC just north of the boundary. Most everyone else sees a general 1-2”

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35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

.05 this evening.   If any indication..  a big worry for these big amounts modeled tomorrow night. Have a feeling we see some big changes over night  Should be an out door day tomorrow for yard work until any rains come in late day/ evening 

Through 8-9pm your 0.05” is more rain than numerous models show for you.

If any indication you’re ahead of the game?

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