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Wake me Up....when September Ends....


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21 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

12Z Euro southward ho.

Another nickel or dime situation for CNE?  Glad SNE is getting the goods.  If this keeps up I will be where SNE was a few weeks ago.

ss.jpg

It's not so much south comparing those two QPF layouts to my eyes.  This 12z run's just less in areal coverage.  The axis of heaviest is really unchanged.

I think that may be "sorta" telling ?  - the shrinking

This whole ordeal lacks very strong synoptic forcing.   The models see the instability with pooling PWAT along the boundary and so forth, but then the physical processing might be too sensitive in ending up with those heavier pervasive results out in time, because it's relaying process from the previous time interval that were overly fed-back.  That's why as systems near, they sometimes "shrink" like that.   This seems to be a candidate for modulating down as it gets nearer. 

But it's interesting.. .because, even though that may be true, PWAT pooling with a stalled boundary can then pig rain ...so you have competing offsets there a little bit.  We could shrink the total areal coverage and still manifest local downpour proficiency. 

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26 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

12Z Euro southward ho.

Another nickel or dime situation for CNE?  Glad SNE is getting the goods.  If this keeps up I will be where SNE was a few weeks ago.

ss.jpg

I am sort of rooting for the more Stein vocal N.CT to Taunton axis to end up with the most rainfall of all of New England by the time fall arrives so when people look back on water totals in 2022 warm season they’ll be like “what drought?”

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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize you said, "...One of the,"  because there are a handful of them out there - just so expectations are properly aligned with signaling.

The Euro was approaching a historic D7-10 suggestion last night.  It ejects a +20C 850 mb plume through NE during that time span amid a expansive circus tent heat bubble.  And it does have at least conceptual backing by its EPS ens.  

We're losing the sun ...f'n fast now. wow. But I've seen it be 80 in early November from these sort of weird late seen heat release synoptics, ...to mention that happened in February's recently too... so I don't even know why I'm saying this...  It can still get pig's bum sultry.

 

Yea, I love how fast the sun is fading away.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Dangerous using the GFS though, right?

3km NAM had some nice enhancement over the Tolland Massif.

4A6FC639-CF02-4088-8515-AF9A7B34E40E.thumb.png.ae9edfd4f41ac783b7f0e1ffa3b18737.png

Gfs , Nam .. soon to be 18z Euro all south and mainly misses other than convection tomorrow afternoon. Glad we got what we did last week with the heat coming back this upcoming week 

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I'm not sure how accurate my Davis rain gauge is but I just went back and checked.  Assuming Concord NH averages 3.5" of rain per month I have not had an above normal qpf month since last October's  4.89".   I can't say what the qpf for the winter months were but my snowfall was about average.  

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