Brian5671 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Lol… as his dead hydrangeas wash away from flash flooding, we’ll get this post or something similar: ” Absolutely no models had this, none. Nobody could have predicted this” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Just now, Lava Rock said: You guys should go to Electric Blue for a brew Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk DIT is already there, 6 beers deep…Labor Day am special. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 14.49 max through hr21 on the 12z HRRR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Starting to get concerned down here, looks like it’s wagons north again from northern ct to southern mass.. looks like 2 main areas of rain-one over central NJ and another across CT/RI--the area in b/w could get screwed-hopefully that's not us... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 14.49 max through hr21 on the 12z HRRR Well, the sump pumps had the summer off so they're rested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Will be wet south of pike later today and tonight into tomorrow. Still think CT may be ground zero. 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This has congrats Ray to BOS area written all over it . 15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Starting to get concerned down here, looks like it’s wagons north again from northern ct to southern mass.. I’ll take the confused emoji for $800 Alex. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Broken clouds, some blue sky and sun. 74/69.....nice morning We've had plenty of rain here lately. You all can have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Everyone just keep calm and their wits about them . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Off topic..... I got a new computer and have lost all my book marks. Can you all post your favorite sites so I can bookmark them again? TIA! EDIT: pornhub is not among them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Off topic..... I got a new computer and have lost all my book marks. Can you all post your favorite sites so I can bookmark them again? TIA! EDIT: pornhub is not among them. I can’t help you then. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Glad you enjoyed your time in the beautiful hilltowns of NE CT . Hopefully your forecast will be better than mine . It is absolutely torrential rain right now. I mean if this is any indication you guys are good. This is instant rivers down driveway and dirt road. Muddy road. Beautiful country, Woodstock has a VT vibe. Dairy farms, rolling hills, dirt roads. Can walk under 1 mile to state line. Right under the reds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 1.57" since midnight. Got a little t-storm around 2am that dropped a bunch very quickly. Nice steady light rain now. 62/60 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 It's much more comfortable temp-wise with the rain coming down. Pretty crappy overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 This always seems to happen to me. The prophetic 'water cooler,' seemingly innocuous statement meant purely in jest ends up just f'n happening. My neighbor and I were discussing the frivolity of "drought" in New England, not more than a week ago - prior to this ordeal even materializing in guidance. I said to the guy, "...Climate has a way of finding its way back to normal - right? whether that is done all at once, or over an extended series of events, some how some way, we always seem to end up where we're supposed to be" ... The impetus being, it is almost impossible to finish a year with only 5" of water Maybe this is taking the all at once road? Speaking of models, assuming this does go on to 4-7" and so forth, the Euro takes the prize for first awareness. Whether it vacillated after the fact ( they all do anyway ) that guidance picked this up pretty coherently last Thursday. Just sayn' I was on the fence with this in all honesty. I think I've expressed both ends of the pro and con... pretty much even in both directions. I never liked the general weak synoptic forcing. Models were jumping around with location/max too much, too - a continuity signal that sometimes means too much, just as often as it can be ominous. They also disagree. The Euro likes roughly SE VT to N.. RI for 2.5 to 3.5" ... while the GFS is insisting on nearly double those amounts, hammering much of CT/ HFD to NYC. The NAM? ...two runs in a row of 6-8" pretty much pan-dimensional HFD-PVD to CON NH is going to be a neat test - but that model takes synoptic 101 for audit anyway.. . Point being, these disparities are just glaring enough that this is a nerd's porn for model competition. It may be the common theme is that the models don't do as well in weaker synoptic mechanisms. They need that "loud" physical scaffolding to perform better. That does not mean no big event though... It's been a sneaky difficult forecast effort here. There's a gap there ... where big parameters coincide with weak forcing sometimes does, and some times does not bring hell. I do/did like the notion of PWAT pooling along a stationary boundary - those tend to overproduce. That thing in Kentucky several weeks ago is an example ... ( though that's not intended as an analog). These dense theta-e concurrent with slow moving and/or diffuse frontal convergence ...man, once triggered, it's sort of like the 'atmospheric dam' breaks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Where’s the rain? NWS said it was going to start last night here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This always seems to happen to me. The prophetic 'water cooler,' seemingly innocuous statement meant purely in jest ends up just f'n happening. My neighbor and I were discussing the frivolity of "drought" in New England, not more than a week ago - prior to this ordeal even materializing in guidance. I said to the guy, "...Climate has a way of finding its way back to normal - right? whether that is done all at once, or over an extended series of events, some how some way, we always seem to end up where we're supposed to be" ... The impetus being, it is almost impossible to finish a year with only 5" of water Maybe this is taking the all at once road? Speaking of models, assuming this does go on to 4-7" and so forth, the Euro takes the prize for first awareness. Whether it vacillated after the fact ( they all do anyway ) that guidance picked this up pretty coherently last Thursday. Just sayn' I was on the fence with this in all honesty. I think I've expressed both ends of the pro and con... pretty much even in both directions. I never liked the general weak synoptic forcing. Models were jumping around with location/max too much, too - a continuity signal that sometimes means too much, just as often as it can be ominous. They also disagree. The Euro likes roughly SE VT to N.. RI for 2.5 to 3.5" ... while the GFS is insisting on nearly double those amounts, hammering much of CT/ HFD to NYC. The NAM? ...two runs in a row of 6-8" pretty much pan-dimensional HFD-PVD to CON NH is going to be a neat test - but that model takes synoptic 101 for audit anyway.. . Point being, these disparities are just glaring enough that this is a nerd's porn for model competition. It may be the common theme is that the models don't do as well in weaker synoptic mechanisms. They need that "loud" physical scaffolding to perform better. That does not mean no big event though... It's been a sneaky difficult forecast effort here. I do/did like the notion of PWAT pooling along a stationary boundary - those tend to overproduce. That thing in Kentucky several weeks ago is an example ... ( though that's not intended as an analog). These dense theta-e concurrent with slow moving and/or diffuse frontal convergence ...man, once triggered, it's sort of like the 'atmospheric dam' breaks. 12z HRRR with over 15 in SW Tolland county lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Holy crap. My Dad’s garden gauge looks like its over 1.0” already in like past half hour. Radar showing 3-4+” in Sturbridge now. This is torrential rain, driveway is washing out a bit. Muddy torrents. So much water coming out of the sky and we are on the southern end. The noise is deafening. Surprised no FFW in Southbridge/Sturbridge. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wagons north The wagons must be getting dizzy .38" through 945am 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Toss the NAM at least as far as MYB goes. It shows nothing here until noon though we have about .25" so far. 3K is a little more accurate for what I've experienced--but still probably wrong overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 It’s no Stratus and not submitting it to anything official but the random garden gauge is 1.50” now and still raining. Cant imagine north of here. Sturbridge must be under water. Lines up with radar estimates. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 12k nam please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 EE rule means SWCT Steined again. I will melt worse than a blizzard jacking EMASS again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 5, 2022 Author Share Posted September 5, 2022 You know its been a boring year when we fight over rain. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 People south of the pike aren’t going to like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 That’s the nam run at the morning of the event that gives me and PF hope and then it’s all downhill from there. Models are all over the place so pick your fave and hug and enjoy it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Is this going to be one of those FL thunderstorm deal where you sit under a cell get a quick 1-4” and that it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You know its been a boring year when we fight over rain. Preseason training camp for when models show widespread 1-2” QPF and someone says “I think 2-4 or 3-6 here.” (I’m guilty as charged at times). Need to give a good ribbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 averaging about .75 so far from this event around town, all of which has fallen since midnight. Just off the top the head that's the most in a 24-hr period since maybe the end of June. Someone S of the Pike near the border of NE CT is choking in a water boarding- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: DIT is already there, 6 beers deep…Labor Day am special. Legs n Eggs at the Blue! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Up to 0.01" here. 50 miles SW, Bridgton had 2.2" by 7 AM. 20 miles NE, Solon reported 0.49". Some better echoes approaching, so still some hope. Otherwise, it's the worst-case scenario - clammy 50s, just enough RA to keep everything wet but not enough to help the garden. Only a few weeks until 1st frost, unless it's like last year when the veggies just stopped growing a month before the Oct 24 1st frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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