Friday, August 26, 2022 Severe Threat

[weatherwiz]

A shortwave trough will be moving across southeast Canada and northern New England through the day Friday with a surface low moving east-northeast across northern New England. This will push a warm front through southern New England with a cold front arriving from the west. Out ahead of the cold front and south of the warm front a very warm and humid airmass is expected to materialize with high temperatures likely pushing into the lower-to-mid 80's (there is the potential for some upper 80's) with dew points into the 60's. This should net around 1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE with stronger instability limited by only 60's dewpoints and adequate mid-level lapse rates. 

A ribbon of 25-35 knots (35-45 knots) of bulk shear should traverse the region as the shortwave trough approaches. While wind shear is not tremendously strong, this shear is more than adequate for thunderstorms to become organized and likely develop into multicell clusters or short line segments. Strongest thunderstorms, especially within the stronger bulk shear may take on transient supercell characteristics. 

The result will be the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon moving in a west-to-east fashion across the region. Strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts and perhaps even some hail or even a brief tornado (especially in the vicinity of the warm front where low-level shear will be enhanced). 

Let's do it!!!!!

[QCD17]

Should make for a fun evening at the Brooklyn Fair with the kids tomorrow.

[weatherwiz]

HRRR gone wild

[Torch Tiger]

Don't want to jinx it, but looks pretty active.  Not much in the way of severe, but should be good coverage anyway.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Don't want to jinx it, but looks pretty active.  Not much in the way of severe, but should be good coverage anyway.

Yup coverage will certainly more scattered-to-numerous. 

[weatherwiz]

NAM and 3km NAM look pretty decent as well. 

[weatherwiz]

One thing to watch closely is how the LLJ responds tomorrow afternoon. Both NAM/GFS start to pulse it up a bit moving through the afternoon, especially eastern sections with a more southerly component.

[Damage In Tolland]

Tomorrow def favors Pike north. Most lift and dynamics up there .. south will be hit or miss 

[NECT]

Thursday night is much less crowded at the fair.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Some good cells look likely.  As usual, good luck pinning them down. 

[dendrite]

Severe rain would be appreciated.

[weatherwiz]

10 hours ago, dendrite said:

Severe rain would be appreciated.

careful what you wish for

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have a feeling MBY finally gets a good soaking today.

[dryslot]

The stakes have been raised.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The stakes have been raised.

Perhaps some weenies raised too?

[ineedsnow]

3k looks great in Agawam for the day hoping for something

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Perhaps some weenies raised too?

Along with laptops.

[Cyclone-68]

I’d settle for a dying thunderstorm let’s just get some rain 

[weatherwiz]

I wonder if we could see some dewpoint pooling today. RAP getting MLCAPE upwards of 2,000 J/KG which we can only do if dews indeed get close to 70 or so. 

[Whineminster]

I'm ready to get pummeled and smashed

[Cyclone-68]

7 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

I'm ready to get pummeled and smashed

And then get a storm? Lol 

[radarman]

a few stray little cells popped out ahead.  I doubt much will come of them right now, but as the heating gets stronger and the line encroaches a cell popping out ahead would be worth monitoring.

[dendrite]

Line in VT looking good early for my latitude. 0.50"+ please.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, radarman said:

a few stray little cells popped out ahead.  I doubt much will come of them right now, but as the heating gets stronger and the line encroaches a cell popping out ahead would be worth monitoring.

Was just about to take lunch and go outside and play with the dog but there is a lightning strike near Westfield. 

[radarman]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Was just about to take lunch and go outside and play with the dog but there is a lightning strike near Westfield. 

not sure where you are exactly but that cell will move well north of Springfield.   That said basically every new nexrad scan is showing new cells forming.

I'm supposed to fly out of BDL at 3, not sure if that's happening.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

not sure where you are exactly but that cell will move well north of Springfield.   That said basically every new nexrad scan is showing new cells forming.

I'm supposed to fly out of BDL at 3, not sure if that's happening.

It’s definitely going to pass by Tocqueville north but with my luck some +CG will occur well ahead of it lol. I hope we don’t get stuff popping too early but capping eroding quickly. 
 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Kev is going to get a little rain from that cell near Hartford

[radarman]

 
Mesoscale Discussion 1722
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1125 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

   Areas affected...far eastern New York into parts of New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261625Z - 261830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms will develop after 17Z, moving
   from eastern New York into parts of New England. A few damaging
   gusts are most likely, and a weak/brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low developing over far
   eastern NY, and just south of an early-day cluster of thunderstorms
   which stretches into VT. Meanwhile, a diffuse warm front extends
   eastward toward far southern ME, though mixing may lead to a
   northward repositioning later today.

   Heating and advection of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints has led to an
   uncapped and unstable air mass, with CAPE presently in the 1000-2000
   J/kg range. The strongest instability currently exists over southern
   New England where dewpoints are higher. Further, GPS PWAT sensors
   show a marked increase in overall moisture values through a deeper
   layer, approaching 1.50" near coastal CT.

   Convergence near the developing surface low and trailing surface
   trough and continued heating will lead to increasing storm coverage
   throughout the afternoon, progressing eastward. Deep-layer shear
   averaging near 35 kt, as well as veering winds with height suggest a
   several storms may be severe, producing a combination of damaging
   gusts and isolated hail. Steepening low-level lapse rates, and moist
   boundary layer, and weak SRH values could support a brief/weak
   tornado with the stronger isolated cells.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 08/26/2022

 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Here be the watch

[dendrite]

Looks like a mesolow cutting through S VT. I'd love for that to curl its way up here.