Tracking the Tropics

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

These two guidance have flip (reversed) across the western hemisphere entirely from where they were 24 hours ago.  Yesterday, the Euro was a warm ridge and the GFS was the bully N stream.   Utterly, flipped.  12z GFS now carries a bulging heat dome/ridge after this next Wed, and the Euro looks well above 50% similar to those previous GFS runs.

Either solution could prevail. ..

I can see why they are tussling over it.  The entire N arc of the Pacific circulation mode is entering an A/B phase due to the absorption of a "Merbok" into a two stream phase over the eastern limb of the WPO domain, ...sending a shock wave through the flow that ends up as a powerful jet moving SE through Canada in a week.   That's the gist of this Euro, and the previous GFS ( again, no flipped themes).

The models are taking turns with more than less proficiency in that phase and subsequent consequence down stream.  

Which... if there is going to be a hurricane to monitor - that's not really part of that above, but it could 'chancy' be in the right(wrong) place at the right(wrong) time...etc..etc...  That's all this is - timing as far as the hurricane part of this.  

I was just thinking that RE the flip....I remember you commenting on the EURO death ridge. The way things are going, I'll get the heat ridge, but the timing will be such that the tropics still whiff lol

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

We're so much more infrastructure hardened now than those old years. People will be sorely disappointed. ASEMAATT had a friggin 100 mph wind blaster spectacular last October, and yeah they didn't have power for a week but it wasn't a humanitarian crisis. 

This is essentially true for winter storm scenarios - particularly those that are snow.   We have to expand the comparison over a longer period than even 70 years ( say..).  Back 120, prior to modernization of land and the creation of the Interstate system... 20" choked civility -

Just think, in 50 years, ... telegraph and power lines will be either underground or becoming that way, and/or being replaced by other power and communication solution/methods.

Winter storms impacts will be rendered entirely nuanced inconvenience.  No longer any sort of stop management issues.  That is, if we are even still having winters capable of hosting jack shit at that point along the projected CC curve of the future. 

Ha... in some ways, we could be if not likely are, living the last decade(s) of the snow day era.  

In 200 years... if we haven't lost out to diminishing returns, or been dealt some other biblical set back, first, tech may have evolved that implements "quantum electro magnetic  wave guides" that force weather patterns. The entire field becomes obsolete.

 

[Cyclone-68]

Hopefully OTS this time will really mean “On To Sturbridge” 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is essentially true for winter storm scenarios - particularly those that are snow.   We have to expand the comparison over a longer period than even 70 years ( say..).  Back 120, prior to modernization of land and the creation of the Interstate system... 20" choked civility -

Just think, in 50 years, ... telegraph and power lines will be either underground or becoming that way, and/or being replaced by other power and communication solution/methods.

Winter storms impacts will be rendered entirely nuanced inconvenience.  No longer any sort of stop management issues.  That is, if we are even still having winters capable of hosting jack shit at that point along the projected CC curve of the future. 

Ha... in some ways, we could be if not likely are, living the last decade(s) of the snow day era.  

In 200 years... if we haven't lost out to diminishing returns, or been dealt some other biblical set back, first, tech may have evolved that implements "quantum electro magnetic  wave guides" that force weather patterns. The entire field becomes obsolete.

 

Man, you have a way of authoring posts that just drain the soul of a weather weenie, at least for those courageous enough to endure the entire length of them.

[ineedsnow]

We watch!

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, you have a way of authoring posts that just drain the soul of a weather weenie.

Lol…but then the next post he’ll be talking tropopause fold, and Noah’s ark type calamity. It seems he switches the posting  tenor to the opposite of the current conversation I’ve noticed many times.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…but then the next post he’ll be talking tropopause fold, and Noah’s ark type calamity. It seems he switches the posting  tenor to the opposite of the current conversation I’ve noticed many times.  

Man, it's a bloodbath when he gets going on one of his climate change tangents, though....goes into vivid detail like only he can about how there won't be any more hurricanes, it won't snow south of Mooseanus, ME, and everyone's crotch will melt off. Makes we wanna tie a firm knot some place really high and just "hang out"...

[Typhoon Tip]

LOL ....  

  muah hahaha, my work here is almost complete -

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, you have a way of authoring posts that just drain the soul of a weather weenie, at least for those courageous enough to endure the entire length of them.

It's an example of how technology is conditioning people toward the feckless tl;dr thing

                                                 ...but, that post was not that long on a PC - certainly not compared to 10 ... or 15 yrs ago.

My hunch is that folks are doing this engagement predominantly from their portable tech these days, ...where one wrapped sentence looks like a whole paragraph on that interface - this one included ... The rest is quick stimulus dosing - that does not share company with the virtuosity of deeper thought. 

Combining these two? People just don't read... or read very well.

Back in the earlier days of Eastern, I wrote pages for pinned storm outlooks and got PMs from English teachers containing accolades - now? 

The instant gratification is all about pap on tap, pouring saccharine pop culture crap that doesn't require any thought... and is often taken as gospel - digress.

Like I said, diminishing returns    No one can stand to make the hot cocoa anymore - they want it already delivered.   You know, it's not a huge leap to see how the writers of "The Matrix" came up with that pacification reality to harvest power from human energy.  It's really a kind of quasi analog for plugging everyone into their phones and zombifying them into herds of thumb-swiping  stimulus junkies for dimes.  

[alex]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

We watch!

Hmmm when is that for? I’m currently in Turks and Caicos lol

[WxWatcher007]

19 minutes ago, alex said:

Hmmm when is that for? I’m currently in Turks and Caicos lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Any more south west and that is eaten up by the big islands 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Any more south west and that is eaten up by the big islands 

Although the operationals still have somewhat limited use, the fact that they all basically agree that this runs into the Greater Antilles and still finds a way to intensify in the southwest Atlantic is interesting. Ensembles more or less endorse that idea too. I do think we're past the point where this one fizzles even with land interaction, unless it runs over both Haiti/DR and the length of Cuba. This looks like a TS to me right now.

At the moment I think it's going to be just organized enough to survive a day of land interaction but not so organized as to run entirely north of the islands. Not quite an analog, but I can see an Isaias type situation where it's middling along until it gets clear of the islands and begins to turn northward. 

Tomorrow's recon data for the system itself and the environment ahead will be very helpful. 

Shear is present and probably caps this before the Antilles, but dry air hasn't slowed this one down much. That alone has me starting to believe this one could be a contender in the long range. 

[WxWatcher007]

Contender in the long range for the US. Not necessarily New England lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

50 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:I do think we're past the point where this one fizzles even with land interaction, unless it runs over both Haiti/DR and the length of Cuba. This looks like a TS to me right now.

I just think If you take the NHC track and move it 100 miles or more SW it’s a non contender . I’ve seen so many storms just get destroyed over The length Hispaniola Mountains then they weaken and usually correct more west and interact w Cuba and then they have no real estate to reorganize unless as a weak system they turn due north ...

Not a base case but i think it’s Certainly a decent shot . We’ll see how this corrects next two days 

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah still a fairly long way to go. 

[ineedsnow]

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Most interesting thing with regard to the tropics all season…it’s been dead all season, and we all know it’s a long shot, but at least it’s something to watch the next few days. Been one boring frieken tropical season. 

[WxWatcher007]

An overperformer in the basin!

Tropical Storm Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022
945 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Satellite data indicate that the depression has strengthened to a 
tropical storm with maximum winds estimated to be near 50 mph (85 
km/h).  This will be incoporated in the next advisory that will be 
released before 11 pm AST (0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 945 PM AST...0150 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 52.0W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

[Typhoon Tip]

If I lived in the northern Leewards on up the PR archipelago I’d be nervous. 
 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

An overperformer in the basin!

Tropical Storm Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022
945 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Satellite data indicate that the depression has strengthened to a 
tropical storm with maximum winds estimated to be near 50 mph (85 
km/h).  This will be incoporated in the next advisory that will be 
released before 11 pm AST (0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 945 PM AST...0150 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 52.0W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

Not to poop on the optimism but… that doesn’t look like an overachiever to me - it looks tilted backwards; that deep convection, albeit impressively cold and persistent, appears to be on the eastern edge of the circulation. 
 

Maybe we’ll see a center reconnect back wise 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to poop on the optimism but… that doesn’t look like an overachiever to me - it looks tilted backwards; that deep convection, albeit impressively cold and persistent, appears to be on the eastern edge of the circulation. 

Oh it’s far from perfect and still probably has a ceiling pre Antilles as a result, but for something that wasn’t even supposed to be this organized 48 hours ago, this isn’t bad. Especially in this season of suck. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to poop on the optimism but… that doesn’t look like an overachiever to me - it looks tilted backwards; that deep convection, albeit impressively cold and persistent, appears to be on the eastern edge of the circulation. 
 

Maybe we’ll see a center reconnect back wise 

With regard to the lack of any activity this season…it’s an over performer. Think that’s what he means. 

[WxWatcher007]

Speaking of overperformers, I think the most memorable thing about 2005 other than Katrina was seemingly going to bed with lower end storms in the basin and waking up to find them majors.

Wilma went from 110mph at 11pm to 175 at 11am one night lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I just think If you take the NHC track and move it 100 miles or more SW it’s a non contender . I’ve seen so many storms just get destroyed over The length Hispaniola Mountains then they weaken and usually correct more west and interact w Cuba and then they have no real estate to reorganize unless as a weak system they turn due north ...

Not a base case but i think it’s Certainly a decent shot . We’ll see how this corrects next two days 

I think it will go N of Hispaniola. 

[CoastalWx]

Kind of neat how guidance blows up the storm north of Hispaniola. 
 

Still something to watch even if a fish storm is favored. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It's may be a useful reminder that NOAA/NHC average forecast error for 120 hours is ~ 175 nautical miles.   In this monitoring effort there's a lot of circumstantial sensitivity spanning that distance, at that time.    Namely, interactions with land.

   

[CoastalWx]

I probably lean left of the GEFS. General rule of thumb is that if this is a weaker, sheared system....it will typically move more to the left, or westerly in this case. That's my guess. Probably goes over PR and kisses nrn Dominican coast. If it went into Hispaniola it would not shock me. 

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I probably lean left of the GEFS. General rule of thumb is that if this is a weaker, sheared system....it will typically move more to the left, or westerly in this case. That's my guess. Probably goes over PR and kisses nrn Dominican coast. If it went into Hispaniola it would not shock me. 

Morning satellite reveals a system that looks like it wants to disconnect the mid level vorticity clean off the low levels ... but it's hangin' in there. 

You know..it would almost be fitting for this season if that were to just go ahead and happen, and then watch an open swirl with a single CB wrap it's guts around Hisp. like a bug on windshield.

[Typhoon Tip]

Up...there it is...disconnected ...

Good luck TC enthusiasts -