Modfan2 Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 ECMWF suite appears to support recurve north; something to watch for here? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Tropical storm on the 6z GFS up here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 22 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Tropical storm on the 6z GFS up here It’s Fantasy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It’s Fantasy. I know still fun to look at though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I know still fun to look at though I hear ya. When is it showing it for? 7-10 days out I’d imagine. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: It’s Fantasy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Nice i was hoping to see a phantom hurricane today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Uggh ain’t gonna make it with that track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Uggh ain’t gonna make it with that track The thing that matters right now is organization and survival in a marginal to hostile environment. Zero concerns about track currently IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 14, 2022 Author Share Posted September 14, 2022 28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The thing that matters right now is organization and survival in a marginal to hostile environment. Zero concerns about track currently IMO. Track and intensity are intertwined because TBH I would rather not see it organize much with Hispaniola being a distinct possibility. You don't want highly organized, well coupled circulation traversing that island because they become so severely disrupted that dissipation is a distinct possibility, whereas a more diffuse system is more likely to simply redevelop along either coast of the island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Track and intensity are intertwined because TBH I would rather not see it organize much with Hispaniola being a distinct possibility. You don't want highly organized, well coupled circulation traversing that island because they become so severely disrupted that dissipation is a distinct possibility, whereas a more diffuse system is more likely to simply redevelop along either coast of the island. Totally agree. I think this needs to be coherent enough to reorganize fairly soon after potential land interaction, but not so much that it’s decimated by the islands or, if we’re being honest, it gets too poleward to become a US threat. I am a little surprised it spun up into a depression in this environment but persistence is persistent until it’s not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 14, 2022 Author Share Posted September 14, 2022 Eric Webb sends @Typhoon Tipan early xmas gift: The mid-troposphere temp gradient b/t the tropics & mid-latitude N Hem was at its weakest on record this summer. A weaker gradient leads to a stretched/weak Hadley Cell, favoring sluggish TC activity globally, as TCs are unable to transport heat out of the tropics as efficiently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Eric Webb sends @Typhoon Tipan early xmas gift: The mid-troposphere temp gradient b/t the tropics & mid-latitude N Hem was at its weakest on record this summer. A weaker gradient leads to a stretched/weak Hadley Cell, favoring sluggish TC activity globally, as TCs are unable to transport heat out of the tropics as efficiently Not sure I see the logic. That doesn’t explain why they weren’t able to get going. If anything we’ve had some strong easterly winds off Africa…..maybe that means Hadley cell is displaced more to the north vs weak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Meanwhile gfs says we watch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Let's go! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Oh baby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 This will get weenies going 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 14, 2022 Author Share Posted September 14, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: This will get weenies going Meh, I wipe the dew mist out of my crack w hr 240 charts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Meh, I wipe the dew mist out of my crack w hr 240 charts. Well yeah lol. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 As soon as that weakness closed and that big ridge popped over the top it was trouble for somebody. Not worth much but we take the eye candy on a miserable day in the office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 12z GFS is awesome. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Phil frolicking all the way to Quebec City on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 14, 2022 Author Share Posted September 14, 2022 The ensembles will probably have like half of the members buried over the tallest peaks of Hispaniola, and half through the goal post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Blocking ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 14, 2022 Author Share Posted September 14, 2022 Not going to lie...this just prompted me to view a model for the first time in 6 months. That run is a special kind of "oh shit", as it intensifies on approach to the latitude of Hateras, before taking a track perhaps just east of 1938 and Gloria....that would even spell trouble for MEHthuen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 14, 2022 Author Share Posted September 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Blocking ? From reality, probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not going to lie...this just prompted me to view a model for the first time in 6 months. That run is a special kind of "oh shit", as it intensifies on approach to the latitude of Hateras, before taking a track perhaps just east of 1938 and Gloria....that would even spell trouble for MEHthuen. That's damage for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 14, 2022 Author Share Posted September 14, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That's damage for you. I am the first one to down play potential SNE tropical scenarios, but that would be scenario to assume a different posture. That ever showed up inside of 4 days or so, I'd be guns blazing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now