Tracking the Tropics

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think ACE has been lower recently....without the numbers in front of me, so maybe I am speaking out of my rear, but I don't believe that to be the case. It's been a pretty damn active 25 years or so. The talk about attributing climate change to one very quiet season is absurd...I mean, theoretically speaking...yes, viable theory..but it's one year. I love how when we get crushed with snow, we await regression like clockwork, but when the 150+ ACE season assembly line finally takes a breather, it must be climate change...what happened to simple regression? Does Mr. Regression not like the tropics? Lol

I mean in the northern hemisphere. I’ll look it up. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean in the northern hemisphere. I’ll look it up. 

Oh, NHEM, maybe.....I was thinking ATL.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, NHEM, maybe.....I was thinking ATL.

It could be a cycle thing as you see in the graph in earlier years. However, with global SSTs as warm as they are, it’s worth watching.

 

[weatherwiz]

On 9/9/2022 at 10:38 AM, CoastalWx said:

I can't believe how quiet it has been. What a face plant for tropical forecasters. By no means meant to be an insult...just that this has caught everyone off guard.

But did it really catch everyone off guard or was everyone forecasting high activity because it was another Nina so everyone assume it would be an above-average season b/c "it's supposed to be"?  Even when the revised numbers came out indicating it would be less extreme, the thought was still above-average. Is it difficult for anyone to ever come out and admit initial thinking was incorrect instead of trying to justify an initial call? There was never...ever, at any point since Spring indicating conditions would become favorable. 

[Snowedin]

After last years pre-Halloween super nor’easter that took out dozens of trees in our hood leading to over a week without power and quite literally being stranded for nearly that same amount of time, I’m not too keen on experiencing any further destructive storms for the foreseeable future. Let’s just keep the moisture coming in reasonable amounts so we don’t end up looking like Phoenix come next spring. If it takes a little tropical system (Sans the destructive winds) to deliver the goods, then I’ll take that as well! 

[Typhoon Tip]

22 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It could be a cycle thing as you see in the graph in earlier years. However, with global SSTs as warm as they are, it’s worth watching.

 

Do you by any chance know how to read this graph ?  - I can see the y and x-coordinates, but I'm not sure how to interpret that double curve structure.   Where do the top data points come from/mean.   Same for the bottom.   Obviously ...colorizing the difference between them bears significance, too ... but I figure I'd gather what that significance is if knew what top and bottom are.   Maybe some basal state of the Hemisphere, then adding the TC's over top?  We can clearly see the two lines move together so there's a relationship -duh

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Do you by any chance know how to read this graph ?  - I can see the y and x-coordinates, but I'm not sure how to interpret that double curve structure.   Where do the top data points come from/mean.   Same for the bottom.   Obviously ...colorizing the difference between them bears significance, too ... but I figure I'd gather what that significance is if knew what top and bottom are.   Maybe some basal state of the Hemisphere, then adding the TC's over top?  We can clearly see the two lines move together so there's a relationship -duh

Oh it's from here--> https://climatlas.com/tropical/

[WinterWolf]

17 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

But did it really catch everyone off guard or was everyone forecasting high activity because it was another Nina so everyone assume it would be an above-average season b/c "it's supposed to be"?  Even when the revised numbers came out indicating it would be less extreme, the thought was still above-average. Is it difficult for anyone to ever come out and admit initial thinking was incorrect instead of trying to justify an initial call? There was never...ever, at any point since Spring indicating conditions would become favorable. 

Good post. 
 

Bottom line…in the end Its a guess.  Backed by some science, some education, and some analogues, but in the end, it’s still a Guess.  And mom nature repeatedly shows us this continually.  

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Good post. 
 

Bottom line…in the end Its a guess.  Backed by some science, some education, and some analogues, but in the end, it’s still a Guess.  And mom nature repeatedly shows us this continually.  

Well it's also more of the fact that there always seems to be hedge towards the extreme (above-average) and always some justification as to why...or anything that can point towards such an outcome. Even as little as a month or so ago revised forecasts were still calling for above-average activity. And this can go beyond tropical too. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh it's from here--> https://climatlas.com/tropical/

thanks Scott! 

For the general reader, here are the series definitions:  "...The top time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached at least hurricane-force (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 64-knots). The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+). Adapted from Maue (2011) GRL. "

Personal supposition, op/ed:

Climate change impact on TC frequency and intensity is a fluid science ... still formulating.   There are 'reasonable' posits out there, and papers are emerging. One has to choose to go dig those out and spend the time - one may have to roll up their sleeves and "learn how to learn" the material, as the vernacular and concepts are not necessarily pedestrian.

From that same source above ... "In summary, it is premature to conclude with high confidence that increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities have had a detectable impact on Atlantic basin hurricane activity, although increasing greenhouse gases are strongly linked to global warming... Human activities may have already caused other changes in tropical cyclone activity that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of these changes compared to estimated natural variability, or due to observational limitations."

I personally lean in the not yet detectable side.  There is no way that along these peregrinations of human scientific evolution, our species knows all that is involved in a causal inter-connectivity of a system that is pretty much non-resolvably complex. That's just prequel to even having the discussion. That obviousness dictates there are possibilities out there, merely yet to be objectively determined, that connect the dots between TC behavior and CC.  Laughable.   We are warming a system where TC are created and life-cycle: Does it really seem very likely those two phenomenon could co-exist in mutual exclusivity? 

From the same source above, there are hints that are pretty damning:

"Tropical cyclone accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has exhibited strikingly large global interannual variability during the past 40-years. In the pentad since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and global tropical cyclone ACE has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Additionally, the frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low. Here evidence is presented demonstrating that considerable variability in tropical cyclone ACE is associated with the evolution of the character of observed large-scale climate mechanisms including the El Nino Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In contrast to record quiet North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 2010, the North Atlantic basin remained very active by contributing almost one-third of the overall calendar year global ACE."

Two aspects that offer intrigue/ 'hooks' for science to spawn research, just within that bold text.  The first is the 'historic low'. 

I don't like coincidences in this business, myself.   When we are as general practice, in an era of 'never before records' falling like an avalanche, and attribution science routinely (objectively) constraining them to Climate Change, wending the globe to a status of historic low ACE becomes worth the inquest. 

The other is the reference to "Pacific Decadal Oscillation"  That index has been stuck in the negative mode.  The paraphrase article found here, https://phys.org/news/2022-06-systematic-pool-pacific-due-human.html ...discusses.   If Dr. Armineh Barkhordarian's science is correct,  we can not both have static -PDO attributed to CC, and PDO correlated to global TC behavior, and then say the TC behavior is not related to CC.

Every time I open anything in the press and science community and read the latest and greatest.. .there are implications almost upon every turn of phrase that suggest everything, except no correlation - that is missing every time. 

 

[WinterWolf]

29 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well it's also more of the fact that there always seems to be hedge towards the extreme (above-average) and always some justification as to why...or anything that can point towards such an outcome. Even as little as a month or so ago revised forecasts were still calling for above-average activity. And this can go beyond tropical too. 

Agreed. 

[metagraphica]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Do you by any chance know how to read this graph ?  - I can see the y and x-coordinates, but I'm not sure how to interpret that double curve structure.   Where do the top data points come from/mean.   Same for the bottom.   Obviously ...colorizing the difference between them bears significance, too ... but I figure I'd gather what that significance is if knew what top and bottom are.   Maybe some basal state of the Hemisphere, then adding the TC's over top?  We can clearly see the two lines move together so there's a relationship -duh

[Typhoon Tip]

41 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well it's also more of the fact that there always seems to be hedge towards the extreme (above-average) and always some justification as to why...or anything that can point towards such an outcome. Even as little as a month or so ago revised forecasts were still calling for above-average activity. And this can go beyond tropical too. 

Heh... right -

You have to wade through a quagmire of humanities to before even analysis can begin.    Everything now is knee-jerk assumed to be some device to leverage one's advantage, as oppose to sensing the virtue of their position. 

Personal successes may and/or may not be truly a part - but that's the rub..   One cannot presume, even though douchery is everywhere.   Lol. 

Personal note:  I think though that La Nina being prequel to the season, and the QBO ... those to leading projected metrics were objectively correlated to activity in the past.   I think there is some decent basis for legitimacy re this season's predictive efforts.  

Easily encourages the notion along that the dearth of activity is related to other factors.  I also think that the ACE slump since 2006 ... We should point out that the slump in ACE is surviving as an observation, straight through different QBO, as well as ENSO states.  I don't know what these other contributing factors are.. ( I have willingness to off ideas), but in terms of what is proven.  But that surviving observation - at minimum - proves the state of the art does not know every aspect that determines TC behavior. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... right -

You have to wade through a quagmire of humanities to before even analysis can begin.    Everything now is knee-jerk assumed to be some device to leverage one's advantage, as oppose to sensing the virtue of their position. 

Personal successes may and/or may not be truly a part - but that's the rub..   One cannot presume, even though douchery is everywhere.   Lol. 

Personal note:  I think though that La Nina being prequel to the season, and the QBO ... those to leading projected metrics were objectively correlated to activity in the past.   I think there is some decent basis for legitimacy re this season's predictive efforts.  

Easily encourages the notion along that the dearth of activity is related to other factors.  I also think that the ACE slump since 2006 ... We should point out that the slump in ACE is surviving as an observation, straight through different QBO, as well as ENSO states.  I don't know what these other contributing factors are.. ( I have willingness to off ideas), but in terms of what is proven.  But that surviving observation - at minimum - proves the state of the art does not know every aspect that determines TC behavior. 

Would it happen to do with the ex#@##ion of the @adl#y C#@l?

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Nah ... the time serious is defined as the minimal TC (bottom) vs those TCs were > 64 kts. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Would it happen to do with the ex#@##ion of the @adl#y C#@l?

I was not referencing HC when I typed that paranthetical - the purpose, I have no shortage of imagination for hypothesis in general. 

Speaking of wading through humanities ... see how that works, Weatherwiz?   

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was not referencing HC when I typed that paranthetical - the purpose, I have no shortage of imagination for hypothesis in general. 

Speaking of wading through humanities ... see how that works, Weatherwiz?   

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nah ... the time serious is defined as the minimal TC (bottom) vs those TCs were > 64 kts. 

Tip the graphic I posted is different then what you described. 
The description is actually below the chart.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tip the graphic I posted is different then what you described. 
The description is actually below the chart.

Ha ha!   I was referring to the top graph on that site

- which is actually an interesting metrical discussion in itself.  Frequency of top time series relates ...well, its on the graph.

AS for the other, I hadn't had my coffee yet, sue me

[MJO812]

Lemon and orange 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lemon and orange 

The orange one is a contendah...I will wait for the weekend to take a vested interest.

[ineedsnow]

Now 96L

[CoastalWx]

Globals aren't too excited about that one yet.

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Globals aren't too excited about that one yet.

I’m still skeptical about 96L too. Let’s see how those aggressive euro forecasts verify in three days. The guidance has been awful even at short range. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Globals aren't too excited about that one yet.

We give it until the weekend.

[Cyclone-68]

Hopefully this is the one that brings the fun 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Globals aren't Hadley Cell isn't too excited about that one yet.

edited by Raymond -

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m still skeptical about 96L too. Let’s see how those aggressive euro forecasts verify in three days. The guidance has been awful even at short range.     over why this thread even exists ...

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Lemon and orange 

Interesting choice of pallet ...considering that both colors have been borrowed by modern vernacular to indicate machinery that won't work -

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting choice of pallet ...considering that both colors have been borrowed by modern vernacular to indicate machinery that won't work -

Very appropriate for this tropical season.